The coronavirus panic proves how easily manipulated people are and how the media sensationalizes everything

macdaddy wrote:

Reality and Truth wrote:

My opinion is no less valid than yours

Note - actually my opinion probably is more valid than yours because you are clearly an idiot

My opinion aligns with trusted organizations - medical organizations of all sorts. What ‘readings’ does your opinion come from? Please share some of the resources that you’ve read and collected your information from. Until then, your opinion is less valid than mine, and you’re intentionally spreading crap.

And you’re unintentionally a comedian

Trump has aligned himself with the stock market so he only stands to lose by a recession. BTW I absolutely love that you're still on here trying to say "it's fine". Hahahaha.....is it still "over"?

Smorbun wrote:

You are an idiot. I mean Grade A Idiot.

You are mad, because someone is disputing something you want to be mad about. Admit it! You want a deadly plague so you can be mad. You're sick.

This is how fear/disaster porn works. When all this is over, there will be a mass shooting somewhere, and they'll be MAD... explain that gun violence isn't actually increasing and they'll get MAD... that is the real disease here. Mass psychosis.

Ok genius....let's start at the beginning: What makes you so certain that you can compare the flu with Corona virus? I really would like to know where your sense of misplaced confidence starts.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Smorbun wrote:

You are an idiot. I mean Grade A Idiot.

You are mad, because someone is disputing something you want to be mad about. Admit it! You want a deadly plague so you can be mad. You're sick.

This is how fear/disaster porn works. When all this is over, there will be a mass shooting somewhere, and they'll be MAD... explain that gun violence isn't actually increasing and they'll get MAD... that is the real disease here. Mass psychosis.

This is true, unfortunately

It’s just the flu bro, will all be over in a month

Hilariousness wrote:

What makes you so certain that you can compare the flu with Corona virus?

Because the common cold flu virus IS the corona virus, and covid19 has probably been around for centuries.

dark cloud wrote:

It’s just the flu bro, will all be over in a month

Exactly what happened in China. Find a joke that works.

You don’t understand....the hospitals are not shut down. Research on coronavirus is still ongoing. I work at another large academic medical center and it’s the same here. Classes and meetings are proceeding remotely via ZOOM. no large gatherings permitted. This is in compliance with state and national guidelines. Healthcare is still being provided.

Bad Wigins wrote:

dark cloud wrote:

It’s just the flu bro, will all be over in a month

Exactly what happened in China. Find a joke that works.

There are 50,000,000 people locked down in China and have been for 7 weeks.

You are an idiot.

Bad Wigins wrote:

the northern Europeans are still revealing the truth: there are far more cases out there than being confirmed, and that means the death rate is far less than feared.

Germany 14 deaths out of 7174 cases, 0.5%.

Sweden: 6 out of 1103, 0.5%.

Norway: 3 out of 1300, 0.3%.

Switzerland: 14 out of 2200, 0.6%.

Belgium: 5 out of 1058, 0.5%

Based ONLY on their confirmed testing numbers, COVID-19 is officially at worst 5 times deadlier than flu on a per-case basis. And these are upper bounds; it is still probably much less than that. It already had a longer generation time, taking longer to spread from one person to another.

This disease is not going to kill more people than flu this year, not next year, not ever.

Those numbers of cases largely still active. Looking at the latest Germany numbers, 7,272 cases, 17 deaths, 67 recovered, and 7,188 still active. You are jumping the gun way too early.

If you want to predict the case fatality rate while the outbreak is still going, you need to divide the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases T days before, where T is the average number of days from case confirmation to death. T has been shown to be 8 to 10 days in studies in China. So would, for Germany, be 17 divided by whatever number of confirmed cases there were in Germany about 9 days ago.

Look at the following paper, where they explain how that works, and confirmed calculated numbers with actual numbers from Hubei:

zzzz wrote:

Those numbers of cases largely still active. Looking at the latest Germany numbers, 7,272 cases, 17 deaths, 67 recovered, and 7,188 still active. You are jumping the gun way too early.

If you want to predict the case fatality rate while the outbreak is still going, you need to divide the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases T days before, where T is the average number of days from case confirmation to death. T has been shown to be 8 to 10 days in studies in China. So would, for Germany, be 17 divided by whatever number of confirmed cases there were in Germany about 9 days ago.

I looked up how many cases were confirmed in Germany 9 days ago. There were 684 cases. That means the case fatality rate for Germany is 17/685, which is 2.5%.

Bad Wigins wrote:

They want a recession. This is the latest ugly face of Trump derangement. A recession is the only way their mind-addled candidate can win.

Frenzied hate toward everyone who "downplays" the virus. Soon everyone who doesn't want a recession will be a "Trump supporter."

You're completely wrong concerning any data or conjecture on the nature of this pandemic. Except for this part. I think there are far better ways to flatten the curve that won't result in a recession, but some governors will do anything in their power to destroy the Trump economy.

Germany

83,783,942 population

15 total deaths attributed to covid19

= 1 death for very 5.6 million people

= .000000179 death rate

zzzz wrote:

zzzz wrote:

Those numbers of cases largely still active. Looking at the latest Germany numbers, 7,272 cases, 17 deaths, 67 recovered, and 7,188 still active. You are jumping the gun way too early.

If you want to predict the case fatality rate while the outbreak is still going, you need to divide the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases T days before, where T is the average number of days from case confirmation to death. T has been shown to be 8 to 10 days in studies in China. So would, for Germany, be 17 divided by whatever number of confirmed cases there were in Germany about 9 days ago.

I looked up how many cases were confirmed in Germany 9 days ago. There were 684 cases. That means the case fatality rate for Germany is 17/685, which is 2.5%.

Doing the same estimate for the US: 400 cases on March 7th, 2020. 74 deaths today. 74/400 is currently estimated at 18.5%. If that sounds bad, well, the US wasn't doing anything to control this at all until now. Maybe the T value should be a bit smaller in the US because the tests might have been taking longer to confirm. If that is true, the denominator would increase, and the case fatality estimate would be less than 18.5%.

dunes runner wrote:

Germany

83,783,942 population

15 total deaths attributed to covid19

= 1 death for very 5.6 million people

= .000000179 death rate

I've shown the paper where I got my method. Your method doesn't make sense. That is not how case fatality rate is calculated. You are calculating a different number than what is used to describe disease fatalities in science/medicine.

zzzz wrote:

I've shown the paper where I got my method.

I didn't look at your piece of paper, but it is very simple to see that my figures are correct.

Yep, Bad is right. Our disease is angry people. Angry people are the biggest threat to humanity

zzzz wrote:

zzzz wrote:

I looked up how many cases were confirmed in Germany 9 days ago. There were 684 cases. That means the case fatality rate for Germany is 17/685, which is 2.5%.

Doing the same estimate for the US: 400 cases on March 7th, 2020. 74 deaths today. 74/400 is currently estimated at 18.5%. If that sounds bad, well, the US wasn't doing anything to control this at all until now. Maybe the T value should be a bit smaller in the US because the tests might have been taking longer to confirm. If that is true, the denominator would increase, and the case fatality estimate would be less than 18.5%.

Obviously, the shortage of test kits in the US also makes that 18.5% case fatality rate for the US high. If our shortage of testing makes the true denominator 3x bigger, CFR would be about 6% for instance. Once the test kits in the US are widely available and add another 9 days, I'll do this calculation again to estimate CFR.

A shame that with so much heads up with what was going on in China, our government couldn't have those test kits ready. Other countries didn't have this screw up. Certainly not Germany, where they had theirs test kits ready and shipping to other 70(+?) other countries.