A longer deeper look at all-time top performances

1500m

WORLD

1957-1960: (1) 3:35.60

1961-1964: (2) 3:37.70

1965-1968: (9) 3:35.44

1969-1972: (11) 3:35.86

1973-1976: (48) 3:33.17

1977-1980: (62) 3:31.93

1981-1984: (98) 3:31.43

1985-1988: (113) 3:29.92

1989-1992: (123) 3:30.81

1993-1996: (128) 3:29.75

1997-2000: (167) 3:28.15

2001-2004: (149) 3:28.05

2005-2008: (155) 3:29.75

2009-2012: (210) 3:29.38

2013-2016: (206) 3:28.14

2017-2019: (143) 3:29.83

TOTAL: (959)

+------------

EAST

1957-1960: (0) 0:00.00

1961-1964: (0) 0:00.00

1965-1968: (1) 3:34.91

1969-1972: (2) 3:37.04

1973-1976: (5) 3:35.36

1977-1980: (5) 3:35.92

1981-1984: (8) 3:34.54

1985-1988: (12) 3:33.26

1989-1992: (21) 3:32.14

1993-1996: (31) 3:31.12

1997-2000: (56) 3:29.04

2001-2004: (49) 3:29.27

2005-2008: (64) 3:30.27

2009-2012: (72) 3:29.52

2013-2016: (59) 3:28.29

2017-2019: (45) 3:30.07

TOTAL: (251)

+------------

NORTH

1957-1960: (0) 0:00.00

1961-1964: (0) 0:00.00

1965-1968: (0) 0:00.00

1969-1972: (0) 0:00.00

1973-1976: (0) 0:00.00

1977-1980: (3) 3:36.89

1981-1984: (4) 3:35.44

1985-1988: (5) 3:35.04

1989-1992: (12) 3:33.15

1993-1996: (15) 3:31.10

1997-2000: (27) 3:30.05

2001-2004: (24) 3:29.26

2005-2008: (24) 3:30.70

2009-2012: (28) 3:30.79

2013-2016: (25) 3:30.77

2017-2019: (16) 3:32.89

TOTAL: (95)

+------------

REST

1957-1960: (1) 3:35.60

1961-1964: (2) 3:37.70

1965-1968: (8) 3:35.88

1969-1972: (9) 3:35.99

1973-1976: (43) 3:34.25

1977-1980: (54) 3:31.93

1981-1984: (86) 3:31.52

1985-1988: (96) 3:30.23

1989-1992: (90) 3:32.45

1993-1996: (82) 3:32.47

1997-2000: (84) 3:30.56

2001-2004: (76) 3:30.81

2005-2008: (67) 3:31.60

2009-2012: (110) 3:31.22

2013-2016: (122) 3:30.89

2017-2019: (82) 3:31.51

TOTAL: (613)

5000m

WORLD

1965-1968: (6) 13:24.48

1969-1972: (19) 13:17.71

1973-1976: (54) 13:14.06

1977-1980: (99) 13:12.14

1981-1984: (110) 13:05.24

1985-1988: (114) 13:06.26

1989-1992: (149) 13:04.50

1993-1996: (161) 12:49.74

1997-2000: (192) 12:45.59

2001-2004: (227) 12:45.99

2005-2008: (249) 12:47.89

2009-2012: (285) 12:48.16

2013-2016: (274) 12:53.36

2017-2018: (181) 12:49.42

TOTAL: (1296)

+------------

EAST

1965-1968: (1) 13:24.20

1969-1972: (1) 13:25.80

1973-1976: (9) 13:20.68

1977-1980: (15) 13:14.04

1981-1984: (12) 13:11.16

1985-1988: (10) 13:18.09

1989-1992: (38) 13:06.37

1993-1996: (55) 12:50.55

1997-2000: (85) 12:47.38

2001-2004: (128) 12:46.41

2005-2008: (159) 12:47.95

2009-2012: (176) 12:48.16

2013-2016: (166) 12:53.36

2017-2018: (111) 12:49.42

TOTAL: (579)

+------------

NORTH

1965-1968: (0) 0:00.00

1969-1972: (1) 13:27.33

1973-1976: (0) 0:00.00

1977-1980: (0) 0:00.00

1981-1984: (3) 13:19.05

1985-1988: (4) 13:13.97

1989-1992: (12) 13:09.22

1993-1996: (23) 12:57.89

1997-2000: (21) 12:51.13

2001-2004: (26) 12:57.75

2005-2008: (18) 12:59.71

2009-2012: (20) 13:08.14

2013-2016: (22) 13:08.05

2017-2018: (12) 13:13.39

TOTAL: (92)

+------------

REST

1965-1968: (5) 13:25.56

1969-1972: (17) 13:17.71

1973-1976: (45) 13:14.62

1977-1980: (84) 13:13.92

1981-1984: (95) 13:06.92

1985-1988: (100) 13:09.05

1989-1992: (99) 13:08.49

1993-1996: (83) 13:04.01

1997-2000: (86) 13:01.94

2001-2004: (73) 13:04.08

2005-2008: (72) 13:02.15

2009-2012: (89) 12:58.39

2013-2016: (86) 13:03.34

2017-2018: (58) 13:06.85

TOTAL: (625)

Marathon

WORLD

1965-1968: (1) 2:09:37.0

1969-1972: (2) 2:09:01.0

1973-1976: (5) 2:09:54.2

1977-1980: (15) 2:09:24.0

1981-1984: (37) 2:08:30.2

1985-1988: (46) 2:07:11.4

1989-1992: (57) 2:08:11.4

1993-1996: (73) 2:07:24.8

1997-2000: (142) 2:06:14.4

2001-2004: (182) 2:05:30.6

2005-2008: (200) 2:05:08.8

2009-2012: (379) 2:03:32.8

2013-2016: (372) 2:03:06.2

2017-2018: (232) 2:03:29.0

TOTAL: (1124)

+------------

EAST

1965-1968: (0) 0:00:00.0

1969-1972: (0) 0:00:00.0

1973-1976: (0) 0:00:00.0

1977-1980: (0) 0:00:00.0

1981-1984: (6) 2:09:49.2

1985-1988: (10) 2:07:34.0

1989-1992: (14) 2:08:29.8

1993-1996: (19) 2:07:58.0

1997-2000: (59) 2:06:41.2

2001-2004: (101) 2:05:38.0

2005-2008: (150) 2:05:12.6

2009-2012: (328) 2:03:32.8

2013-2016: (326) 2:03:06.2

2017-2018: (188) 2:03:29.0

TOTAL: (766)

+------------

NORTH

1965-1968: (0) 0:00:00.0

1969-1972: (0) 0:00:00.0

1973-1976: (0) 0:00:00.0

1977-1980: (0) 0:00:00.0

1981-1984: (0) 0:00:00.0

1985-1988: (1) 2:10:09.0

1989-1992: (0) 0:00:00.0

1993-1996: (1) 2:09:50.0

1997-2000: (7) 2:07:51.6

2001-2004: (8) 2:07:03.4

2005-2008: (9) 2:07:13.8

2009-2012: (13) 2:06:43.0

2013-2016: (6) 2:09:23.6

2017-2018: (4) 2:08:50.8

TOTAL: (34)

+------------

REST

1965-1968: (1) 2:09:37.0

1969-1972: (2) 2:09:01.0

1973-1976: (5) 2:09:54.2

1977-1980: (15) 2:09:24.0

1981-1984: (31) 2:08:30.2

1985-1988: (35) 2:07:30.2

1989-1992: (43) 2:08:23.2

1993-1996: (53) 2:07:55.8

1997-2000: (76) 2:06:36.4

2001-2004: (73) 2:06:54.2

2005-2008: (41) 2:06:54.4

2009-2012: (38) 2:06:56.4

2013-2016: (40) 2:07:56.4

2017-2018: (40) 2:06:10.0

TOTAL: (324)

Quick observations:

"REST" of the world:

In the 1500m, the "QUANTITY" of athletes from this group was consistently the highest, which should be expected given the size of the population.

The "QUALITY" peaked with Cram, Maree, Coe, Gonzalez, and Spivey between 1985-1988. Afterwards, the best top-5 "REST" athletes have never run 1500m as fast.

In other words, post Coe era, in the last 30 years, the "REST" got slower.

In the 5000m, "QUANTITY" has always been fairly steady and high (between 70-100) post-1980, and "QUALITY" has made slow but steady progress, peaking in 2012 with the likes of Solinsky, Rupp, and Teg producing very fast sub-13:00 performances.

In the marathon, progress stopped around 2000, stagnating until recently (after 2016) with fast performances from Moen and some Japanese runners, while "QUANTITY" dropped after 2004, from around 70 to 40 athletes.

"NORTH" Africans:

NOTE: The top-5 metric probably hurts "NORTH" the most, as they never have large quantities of "alltime" athletes. Top-3 is probably more fair.

The "NORTH" consistently produced the lowest "QUANTITY" of athletes, which is expected given the small population.

In both the 1500m and 5000m, the "NORTH" peaked in the years around 1996-2004.

Outside of this period, with a few individual exceptions, the "QUALITY" of the "NORTH" was not significantly better than the "REST" of the world.

Even within this peak period, the number of exceptional "NORTH" athletes can be counted on one hand.

Similarly, in the marathon, with a few marginal exceptions (Gharib, Khannouchi and Goumri), the "QUALITY" of the "NORTH" was not significantly better than the "REST" of the world.

Having said that, the population of "NORTH" is the smallest of the groups, and they have done well for their size against the best athletes combined from the Americas, Europe, Russia, Asia, and Oceania.

A "top-3" metric would probably be more fair, separating them slightly from the "REST" but not closing the gap significantly on the "EAST".

"EAST" Africans:

In the 1500m, in terms of "QUANTITY", the "EAST" were always less than the "REST" (after 1996, around ~65%, yet almost equal in 2005-2008, and less than half in 2013-2016).

"QUANTITY was more (up to 2x) in the 5000m after 2000, and significantly more (up to 8x) in the marathon after 2004.

In the 1500m, the "QUALITY" climbed after 1996, surpassing the "REST" (who peaked ending 1988 at 3:30), and remaining high (mostly sub-3:30) ever since, peaking in 2016.

In the 5000m, the "QUALITY" climbed significantly (15 secs) after 1992, surpassing the "REST" (who continued to improve, albeit slowly), and remaining high (sub-12:50) ever since.

It should be noted that, post-2010, one fast race in 2012, and again in 2018, was enough to raise the "QUALITY" for the whole 4-year period.

In the marathon, while the best of the "REST" and the "NORTH" seem to have stopped their progress at around 2:05:30 (only 6 athletes from these two groups have run sub-2:06, including Ryan Hall's wind-aided Boston, versus 80 "EAST" athletes), the "EAST" took off after 2000, creating a "QUALITY" gap of up to 4 mins, while the "REST" and "NORTH" stagnated.

Please explain IN ENGLISH PLEASE?

What the heck? wrote:

Please explain IN ENGLISH PLEASE?

1965-1968: (1) 2:09:37.0

1965-1968: got it

(1) What is this?

2:09:37.0 What is this?

So east africans confirmed as best runners?

What the heck? wrote:

What the heck? wrote:

Please explain IN ENGLISH PLEASE?

1965-1968: (1) 2:09:37.0

1965-1968: got it

(1) What is this?

2:09:37.0 What is this?

He explains it in the first post:

(x) is the Quantity: The total number of athletes, not performances, in this case just 1

x:xx:xx.x is the Quality: The average of the best times for the top-5 athletes; if there were less than 5, the average of all best times. In this case there was just one time so the result is the average of one.

Raddison wrote:

What the heck? wrote:

1965-1968: (1) 2:09:37.0

1965-1968: got it

(1) What is this?

2:09:37.0 What is this?

He explains it in the first post:

(x) is the Quantity: The total number of athletes, not performances, in this case just 1

Quantity of what?

What the heck? wrote:

What the heck? wrote:

Please explain IN ENGLISH PLEASE?

1965-1968: (1) 2:09:37.0

1965-1968: got it

(1) What is this?

2:09:37.0 What is this?

I did try to explain everything in the first post.

(1) means 1 person in that group achieved a time in the listing for the years indicated.

Another example:

2017-2018: (40) 2:06:10.0

means for the years 2017-2018, 40 people (i.e. "quantity") achieved that time, and the best 5 averaged 2:06:10 (i.e. "quality").

The TOTAL: at the bottom of each group indicates number of athletes in the entire listing, but will be less than the sum of the quantities of all the periods, as I removed duplicates entries, counting individual athletes once.

I admire the work you put in. But it would help if you were doing a briefing and a conclusion instead of just compiling and dropping the raw data so people would look at the data to try to confirm or debate your point.

A picture is worth a thousand words.

rekrunner wrote:

Quick observations:

"REST" of the world:

In the 1500m, the "QUANTITY" of athletes from this group was consistently the highest, which should be expected given the size of the population.

The "QUALITY" peaked with Cram, Maree, Coe, Gonzalez, and Spivey between 1985-1988. Afterwards, the best top-5 "REST" athletes have never run 1500m as fast.

In other words, post Coe era, in the last 30 years, the "REST" got slower.

This conclusion isn't worth much, if anything, for two reasons.

First, it's entirely dependent on the arbitrary choice you have made in slicing up the years.

Second, the extremely small fractional difference in comparative times is, in several instances, statistically insignificant from any reasonable perspective.

A more enlightening approach would be to take a meaningful look at individual data points and ask if those data points are most plausibly explained by surrounding factors that changed over time.

For example, Centrowitz and Manzano ran PBs of 3:30.40 and 3:30.9 at Monaco 2015. I like and root for both of those guys, but I don't think they are at the same talent level of Coe/Cram/Ovett. Yet they were able to run virtually just as fast.

Those with the sunny outlook on life might say they were pulled along by the competition. I don't think it works that way. My take would be that there was some factor in 2015 allowing runners with less talent to run the same or faster times than runners of 1985 with more talent.

And the train of thought chugs on from there.

Gerlin Merlin wrote:

I admire the work you put in. But it would help if you were doing a briefing and a conclusion instead of just compiling and dropping the raw data so people would look at the data to try to confirm or debate your point.

I did provide a set of quick observations. It is a work in progress, and I will likely add more points in the future, but for now my main point was to provide the raw summary data, and let others also look for trends, and perhaps they can confirm some of their own points which previously had no data.

Maybe a conclusion of "slower" is not worth much, but what I find interesting is that there are many reasons to predict faster runners in the last 30 years, and yet what we have at best is statistically insignificant change despite the fairly high quantity of elite athletes producing fast times.

Don't agree with this conclusion at all. For the world as a whole, there has certainly been statistically significant change in top level performances from pre-EPO to post-EPO era.

To underline my point about what I think you are missing (and obscuring) I'd note one other athlete who set a 1500m PB in that Monaco 2015 race: Nick Willis 3:29.46.

Like Centrowitz and Manzano, Willis is a nice runner, but it is evident from 800m PBs and performances that he is not in the talent class of Coe/Cram/Aouita/Ovett. Yet he is able to run just as fast or faster than they did for 1500m.

A plausible conclusion is that 1500m times for "the Rest" haven't improved, and are no longer best in the world, because the talent pool of runners from those countries has diminished in quality. And a plausible reason for this development is the necessity of being on a program of illicit state-of-the-art PEDs to keep up with the competition.

If you're identifying four high-profile runners from the 80s of being in the top "talent class" of that era, what would you say about Aouita's fellow countrymen; Ramzi, Laâlou & Iguider? All three ran much faster than any of those four mentioned; Ramzi (3:29.14), Laâlou (3:29.53) and Iguider (3:28.79).

The EPO era is clearly most visible in East and North Africa after 1989 over 5,000m. There was a clear switch to the roads circa 2008/2009. The Rest clearly reached their peak in the early 1980s. Was this the Cold War in full effect I hope note but we can't entirely rule it out. It should also be pointed out that western birth rates have been in decline since 1962, with birth control pills taking full effect after 1968-1970.

rekrunner wrote:

What the heck? wrote:

1965-1968: (1) 2:09:37.0

1965-1968: got it

(1) What is this?

2:09:37.0 What is this?

I did try to explain everything in the first post.

(1) means 1 person in that group achieved a time in the listing for the years indicated.

Another example:

2017-2018: (40) 2:06:10.0

means for the years 2017-2018, 40 people (i.e. "quantity") achieved that time, and the best 5 averaged 2:06:10 (i.e. "quality").

.

I still dont see what you're talking about.

1) You say that 40 achieved "that" time.

and

2) you say that the top 5 averaged 2:06:10

What is "that" time?