2020 Sub 4 high schoolers

The odds aren’t very good. wrote:

what are the odds wrote:

What do you mean? Jace Aschbrenner is significantly faster than his teammate Colin Sahlman, who ran a 4:16 mile. I don't think he'll be going through at 3:12-3:13. On second thought, Matt Strangio's teammate Chase Gordon would definitely be able to pace them through 800, probably even through 1000. He's run 1:51 for the 800 and seems to be a more speed oriented guy, but it's feasible to believe that he could run an evenly paced 2:27-2:28 1000m.

Have you looked at his PR’s? He ran 4:24 last track season 2 weeks after he ran 9:14. Colin Sahlman would be a much better pacer because he’s much faster anything short of 3200. Just because someone is faster in XC, doesn’t mean they are faster at 1600 or below.

I know cross country times are not the best judgment of progress, but in California conditions tend to be more or less the same. Aschbrenner actually seemed to slow down a couple seconds between his sophomore and junior year cross country seasons, but he's now 42 seconds faster over 5k than last year and 38 seconds faster over 3 miles than last year. Those are definitely big improvements. And it's very difficult to argue that he's significantly slower over any distance under 3200 because he only raced 2 1600s last year. One was at a dual meet, in which he didn't have to try very hard because he and his teammates easily filled out the top scoring positions (Nico won with a 4:26), and the 4:24 was at a meet that was so unimportant to the team that Nico Young didn't race

You have no clue.

He was hurt in XC last year and the 4:24 was at his county championship. He tried his best.

calpa wrote:

At NBNI Bronxville and Loudon Valley had guys go 3:01 and 2:59, I seriously think they could find one guy capable of a 2:59 1200 but It might be hard to find another high schooler who would pass up their own postseason because someone said: "hey instead of doing a big nbn meet why don't you come and run three laps and drop out of our race."

That's why I'm saying maybe they could do it at one of the invitationals during the season. Stanford or maybe even APU might be good opportunities in California

The odds aren’t very good wrote:

You have no clue.

He was hurt in XC last year and the 4:24 was at his county championship. He tried his best.

It doesn't seem like the Ventura County Championship acts as a qualifier for any meet. Why would he try his best? Brosnan seems to make sure his boys don't overexert themselves by making sure that they don't run too hard unless it matters, at least over the track season. He had a habit of DNSing a lot of his runners at dual meets simply because they weren't that important to him. And if he didn't have Nico race the county championship, I doubt it was that important to him.

Aschbrenner ran 14:53 at Woodward. Most years, that would make him the best in California. He will run sub 4:10 and sub 9 at the very least this spring, barring serious injury.

[quote]ding dong wrote:

why doesn't Tuohy go at night when the sun is dark

Good thinking but probably would get cooler pictures in the morning time when the sun is just lighting up

She should go in the winter when the sun is no warmer than an LED light bulb

Sahlman went 1:57/4:15 last season and is about 10-15 seconds faster per mile over 3 miles. He’s likely to be sub 1:54, sub 4:08, sub 9:00. Aschbrenner may end up with a faster 3200, although that isn’t a lock if they both run it at Arcadia. Below 3200 Sahlman will absolutely be the faster of the two.

Puffer wrote:

[quote]ding dong wrote:

why doesn't Tuohy go at night when the sun is dark

Good thinking but probably would get cooler pictures in the morning time when the sun is just lighting up

She should go in the winter when the sun is no warmer than an LED light bulb

Are you serious??/This is some of the stupidest stuff I've seen posted on this site!!

I went outside and measured...the sun barely fits between my thumb and pointer finger!! Do you know how many times she would have to run around the sun the get a full mile in??? A Kilometer maybe, but definitely not a mile.

ReallybroReally wrote:

Sub4Legends wrote:

What high schoolers do you think have a shot at breaking 4:00 in the mile this spring, if any? Does Nico Young have the speed to get it done? Cole Sprout? Katelyn Tuohy?

My money is on Tuohy!

Heard that she ran a 4:09 in practice

you missed the most obvious one wrote:

Taylor Ewert has the best chance of going sub 4 in the mile. Racewalking.

For sure. I'm putting all my money on Ewert going sub 4 in the mile racewalk

in order of most likely to less likely

1. Daschbach

2. Sprout

3. Young

4. Culpepper

5. Green

Methner will shock the country.

birdbeard wrote:

in order of most likely to less likely

1. Daschbach

2. Sprout

3. Young

4. Culpepper

5. Green

Respect for putting Green there. I don’t think he will get it this year but I think he has a great shot next year (4:06 full mile as a sophomore).

Don’t count out Easton Allred, as he has all winter to train, get healthy, and get in top shape. He ran a 4:09 mile as a sophomore.

Aged horribly. Mether lost to Jared kreis at festival of miles and his indoor 3200 that year was only one second faster than Brett gardner and two seconds than Jared kreis.

awful take wrote:

Aged horribly. Mether lost to Jared kreis at festival of miles and his indoor 3200 that year was only one second faster than Brett gardner and two seconds than Jared kreis.

Methner had a pretty solid first XC season at Norte Dame.

We may see a girl close to 4 minutes in the 1500 this year.

For 8k he was only 3 seconds faster than Jared kreis and 10 seconds faster than Brett Gardner.

awful take wrote:

Aged horribly. Mether lost to Jared kreis at festival of miles and his indoor 3200 that year was only one second faster than Brett gardner and two seconds than Jared kreis.

**I meant to say palatine distance night**