How would Jakob have done at NCAAs?

LetsBeHonest wrote:

Yeah but still, that win in XC at Chia when he just turned 16 (2 months after his birthday) was extremly impressive :

https://youtu.be/ITJXyw5RjY4

Considering he was younger than the others by 3 years and that Chiapinelli finished 5th at world u20 before, that was impressive. His best strength seems to be in his mind, just look at that race, when he was gapped by the ultra favorite, Chiapinelli, second place did not seem like an option for him

17:05 for 5K is not very impressive from Jakob. And he looked pretty tired at the end. Probably would have a hard time beating Nico Young with that kind of performance.

ric flair woooooooooooooo wrote:

rojo wrote:

[quote]FrenchDawg wrote:

Yes, I'd expect a 13:02 5000/10,000 guy who is good at xc to win NCAA xc. I wouldn't necessarily expect a mile who runs 13:02 to win a 10k xc meet in the mud. Is he a toe striker? Then definitely not in the mud.

+1

Check out the Euro U20 2018 race. Lotsa' mud, sand, hills, turns and rain. Jakob destroyed that time as well.

lamar vick wrote:

LetsBeHonest wrote:

Yeah but still, that win in XC at Chia when he just turned 16 (2 months after his birthday) was extremly impressive :

https://youtu.be/ITJXyw5RjY4

Considering he was younger than the others by 3 years and that Chiapinelli finished 5th at world u20 before, that was impressive. His best strength seems to be in his mind, just look at that race, when he was gapped by the ultra favorite, Chiapinelli, second place did not seem like an option for him

17:05 for 5K is not very impressive from Jakob. And he looked pretty tired at the end. Probably would have a hard time beating Nico Young with that kind of performance.

5K?

I'm FFF wrote:

lamar vick wrote:

17:05 for 5K is not very impressive from Jakob. And he looked pretty tired at the end. Probably would have a hard time beating Nico Young with that kind of performance.

5K?

No.

Junior (u20) xc course in 2017 =6.28 km

That is sub 14on a 5k course.

By a bit.

.....at age 16.

With all due respect to the awesome performances this year by Nico Young, Jakob was and is light years beyond the talented Mr Young.

Just fact.

Not Even Close wrote:

I'm FFF wrote:

5K?

No.

Junior (u20) xc course in 2017 =6.28 km

That is sub 14on a 5k course.

By a bit.

.....at age 16.

With all due respect to the awesome performances this year by Nico Young, Jakob was and is light years beyond the talented Mr Young.

Just fact.

Actually, 2017 U20 results show Jakob winning in a time of 18 minutes flat, for 6.28 K

...That pace means Jakob crossed the 5k mark @ 14:15 before running another 1.28 km.

Fast, but mortal.

If he were at NXN at age 16???

Would have been doing his interview and eating a sandwich before Nico finished.

In 2017 he was sick and his father didn't wanted him to race, and the race was literally a jog for him, he didn't even pushed. In 2016, he pushed a lot and won in 17.06 (versus 5th at world u20 Yohanes Chiapinelli) but he was barely 16 and the race was 6.2K, not 5k like another autist said.

- NCAA courses are WAY different from european XC courses (not only the euro champs, but euro courses in general.). You simply cant compare NCAA 10k times with times on european courses. You dont even know how long the european courses truly are

- NCAA runners are peaking for the event, the Jacob did certainly not peak for the euro u20 race a few weeks into his winter season. Just cruisin out of base training

- Jacob in peak shape would have won the NCAA this year, but the margin would not have been as big as some people claim. Top guys in the NCAA are the same caliber as top european pros, but Jacob is still one of the most talented runners of all time.

Moreover, Europeans don't care at all about xc times, most races are on distance like 8.272K or 6.181K or 10.924K and on very hard courses (french and British championships are often like Aarhus). So if a guy can win without pushing, he will not push because no one will care about the time he ran on xc but only about the win.

You are confusing the years:

The fast course in Chia, Sardinia was in 2016! Otherwise you are right.

By the way about Chia, 2016:

See that JI is beating 19 year old Jimmy Gressier with 13 seconds. When Gressier came away from JI he won the U23 Cross Country EC 3 years in a row.

See also the 19 years old NCAA hero Josh Kerr finishing 32 seconds behind JI.

And see this years u23 Cross Country silver medallist (and last years U20 bronze medallist) then 17 years old serb Elzan Bibic finishing 49 seconds after JI.

In 2017 the Cross Country EC was run in Samorin, Slovakia on a more challenging course. That is why that times of that year were less impressive. This year the course was also quite challenging with many sharp turns and rather hilly.

Nico Young vs JI: I can´t find Nico Young´s exact age but Young´s 2019 1500m best equals JI´s PB at 14!

Stan B wrote:

Jakob would be mentally exhausted before reaching the starting area.

How would he know whether he's D1, D2, D3, D4 or any of the other Ds?

How would he plan his pacing for an indeterminate distance of a few thousand yards, some inches and then some feet at the end for good measure? If the race is in Texas do they use zulu time or regular? If the race is in Mississippi will he risk being DQed for using a speedsuit that's too revealing? There are so many things to consider.

Maybe Gjert could help get some answers before booking plane tickets.

This is what would have really happened: he would have been running for Michigan. He would have steadily moved up from 15th to 10th to 5th before fading to team place 17th the last mile due to his right calf tightening. This place would have added 5 points to NAU and 3 points to Colorado, giving Colorado 2nd and NAU 3rd. Michigan would have been 4th.

He would win it his sophomore year (congrats), place a surprising 4th his junior year-a season delayed and hampered due to injuries, and he would have been 2nd his senior year, finishing behind a random stud Kenyan from Auburn, Alabama, Campbell, Middle Tennessee State, or Iowa State. Your welcome.

You can forget about comparing times on European courses, unless it is on the same day. They are not accurately measured. E.g. the supposedly 10k and a bit in Tilburg last year was very likely shorter and in Darmstadt (German xc trials) the courses can differ a lot (10% or more) from year to year although usually the same distance is given.

So one can only go by track times where Jakob is extremely good and general XC ability where he is good but as good as on track, especially if it gets hilly. As others said the muddy course in Tilburg was no problem at all for him.

For the guy who said that, I'm not confusing anything bro, I know what you're saying, maybe you misunderstood what I said because of my bad English.

Then, I measured the race in Chia in 2016 and it was 6.2km (very fast course) so his 17.06 means he ran a 5K in 13.47 and ran another 1.2km. It could explain why he was so tired, Chiapinelli who was 19 at that time, was an extremely good opponent. This performance is mind blowing considering Jakob was barely 16.

In Samorin 2017, I wasn't there but the course was also extremly fast compared to most XC race in Europe, I don't know if the 6.3Km is right, but I know that he did not even pushed, he was literally jogging until the last 70meters.

There’s almost no way Jakob wouldn’t win NCAA XC if he was preparing for it like everyone else in the NCAA. I don’t think it’d even be close.

LetsBeHonest wrote:

Moreover, Europeans don't care at all about xc times, most races are on distance like 8.272K or 6.181K or 10.924K and on very hard courses (french and British championships are often like Aarhus). So if a guy can win without pushing, he will not push because no one will care about the time he ran on xc but only about the win.

I wouldn’t agree the most races are run on very hard courses.

@lets be honest: I totally agree with you. Jakob easily dominated these races and some had pretty good opponents in them. As for the European xc courses, they are all over the place.

Taking the European XC championships, I'd say that of the last six years three courses were quite fast and track-like (Hyeres, Chia, Samorin, although it was quite cold in Samorin which was tough for some competitors) whereas Samokov with snow and altitude in 2014, Tilburg with lots of mud (quite a few lost shoes) last year and the firm but hilly course this year were considerably harder. So Jakob dominated two races on track-like courses and one muddy and one hilly.

There are some runners who are considerably better or worse at XC. Jakob is better on track but still pretty good elsewhere and he is dominant enough that this usually would not matter. Unless the conditions are very hard as in Aarhus.

ThatAverageRunner wrote:

There’s almost no way Jakob wouldn’t win NCAA XC if he was preparing for it like everyone else in the NCAA. I don’t think it’d even be close.

That's another important point. The european XC does not have the status the NCAA XC season has.

Lots of European track runners ignore the XC. Some just race a few races as part of winter training. Some do especially prepare for them. But unless one knows about the particular runners, it is hard to tell.

Does he have to go to class or can he continue to train like a professional? Is he studying a real major at a good school?

Stan B wrote:

Jakob would be mentally exhausted before reaching the starting area.

How would he know whether he's D1, D2, D3, D4 or any of the other Ds?

How would he plan his pacing for an indeterminate distance of a few thousand yards, some inches and then some feet at the end for good measure? If the race is in Texas do they use zulu time or regular? If the race is in Mississippi will he risk being DQed for using a speedsuit that's too revealing? There are so many things to consider.

Maybe Gjert could help get some answers before booking plane tickets.

This is A+ analysis. Although I have more faith in Norwegians than I do anyone who uses miles as a unit of measure (beyond one iconic race distance with elite times that correspond to the round number 4:00).

Jakob has been a fulltime professional runner since he finished high school in June 2019.

He has had a contract with Nike for some years reportedly with some substantial bonuses if he performs.

He is doing allright financially: Driving mercedes car and recently purchased a fine apartment in his hometown.