NXN 2020 Way Too Early Predictions

Girls Team Predictions:

1. Saratoga Springs - destroyed everyone at NXN and returns everyone. Also unlike some other states, they allow 7th and 8th graders to compete on varsity which gives them an advantage. So if any varsity girls are to fall, there could be other 7th and 8th graders new to varsity filling in.

2. Niwot - finished in the podium last year and returns 5 of their top 7.

3. Naperville North - storied program that finished 12th last year and will return everyone.

Boys Teams Predictions:

1. Bellarmine College Prep - did not have their best race at state. Would have been closer to Dana Hills at state otherwise. They also return everyone.

2. Great Oak - They are losing a lot of guys but one of their top guys who ran a 15:23 5k and will he back next year was missing from state and NXN. They are also returning a 15:26 5k average for the top 5.

3. Newbury Park - Losing their top 2 including NXN champ, but returns 5 of their top 7 from state/NXN and another one of their top returners who had a solid start and ran a 15:37 5k but missed state and NXN due to injury.

NXN Predictions:

Boys:

1. Nathan Green - finished as the top sophomore in 2018 and the top junior in 2019. Also put up some crazy fast times in track.

2. Tristian Merchant - was only 2 seconds behind Green at NXN.

3. Parker Wolfe - was ranked high in September, 14:47 at Liberty Bell, but was dealing with the sickness during Griak week. Did not qualify for NXN (the SW region was tough), but was the best nonsenior finisher at NXR SW and got 15th at Footlocker nationals.

3rd place is looking to be up for grabs.

Girls:

1. Sydney Thorvaldson - finished only 1 second behind Tuohy at NXN, and is the top returner.

2. Brooke Rauber - finished as the 2nd nonsenior at NXN, and finished in the top 10 the last 3 years.

3. Charlotte Bednar - finished less than 2 seconds behind Rauber.

Kate Peters will give Bednar a challenge.

Newbury Park #3 in CA? This is a joke right? Their team next year is insanely deep. And Bellarmine of all teams at #1? Just no brother. Not even close.

King Sahlman wrote:

I’m putting my money on C Sahlman from Newbury Park. He went 1:57.10-800 and 4:15.14-1600 as a freshman. His XC times this year were about 12-15 seconds a mile better than his freshman year. He ran 15:09 at Woodward Park which is fantastic for a sophomore. He is the 12th fastest returning runner at NXN @ 35 seconds back from the top returner (Green).

Kid has wheels. We could see him run sub-1:53, sub 4:07 and sub 9:00 this season as a sophomore. He’ll be carrying the torch for NP next season so I have to imagine he’s going to have a phenomenal summer. He also has the huge benefit of having exceptional teammates to train with, which is an issue for a lot of national class high school boys who have nobody to run with on their team.

Did Liam Anderson and Aiden Troutner train on their own? I don’t think either of them had anyone their level on the team and they each won NXN.

My prediction is that the meet gets cancelled along with most other XC and high school sports events this Fall

mntrackgeek wrote:

The crazy thing is, Summit girls returned everyone this year and still didn’t win. Of course Saratoga absolutely dominated this year but anything can happen!

One thing that gave Saratoga an advantage over Summit is that Saratoga allows middle schoolers to run for their varsity but Summit does not.

having middle schoolers helps wrote:

mntrackgeek wrote:

The crazy thing is, Summit girls returned everyone this year and still didn’t win. Of course Saratoga absolutely dominated this year but anything can happen!

One thing that gave Saratoga an advantage over Summit is that Saratoga allows middle schoolers to run for their varsity but Summit does not.

True, but they would have won this year not counting the 2 8th graders (one was their 7th runner). But they will remain a young team this year as their oldest last year were 10th graders.

FastTuohy wrote:

having middle schoolers helps wrote:

One thing that gave Saratoga an advantage over Summit is that Saratoga allows middle schoolers to run for their varsity but Summit does not.

True, but they would have won this year not counting the 2 8th graders (one was their 7th runner). But they will remain a young team this year as their oldest last year were 10th graders.

This is true, but one thing that people might not realize is that having those middle schoolers on the team also increased competition to make the top 7 on the team, which may have pushed the older girls to step up more if they wanted to make the NXN team lineup, which is why those freshman and sophomores became as good as they became.

Another thing with the depth team like that, is that if someone has an off day, someone else will step up.

And the 8th grader who was their 7th runner at NXN was scoring for them in some regular season meets so she may have had an off day at NXN.

How many of last seasons 9th and 10th graders at Saratoga trainer with the team at some point during middle school? Anyone who has coached girls at that level knows this is a massive advantage.

Predictions wrote:

NXN Predictions:

Boys:

1. Nathan Green - finished as the top sophomore in 2018 and the top junior in 2019. Also put up some crazy fast times in track.

2. Tristian Merchant - was only 2 seconds behind Green at NXN.

3. Parker Wolfe - was ranked high in September, 14:47 at Liberty Bell, but was dealing with the sickness during Griak week. Did not qualify for NXN (the SW region was tough), but was the best nonsenior finisher at NXR SW and got 15th at Footlocker nationals.

3rd place is looking to be up for grabs.

Girls:

1. Sydney Thorvaldson - finished only 1 second behind Tuohy at NXN, and is the top returner.

2. Brooke Rauber - finished as the 2nd nonsenior at NXN, and finished in the top 10 the last 3 years.

3. Charlotte Bednar - finished less than 2 seconds behind Rauber.

Kate Peters will give Bednar a challenge.

Brynn Brown from Texas just ran a 9:39 3200 time trial. She will finish in the top 3 if the NXN course conditions don’t negatively affect her too much.

King Sahlman wrote:

I’m putting my money on C Sahlman from Newbury Park. He went 1:57.10-800 and 4:15.14-1600 as a freshman. His XC times this year were about 12-15 seconds a mile better than his freshman year. He ran 15:09 at Woodward Park which is fantastic for a sophomore. He is the 12th fastest returning runner at NXN @ 35 seconds back from the top returner (Green).

Kid has wheels. We could see him run sub-1:53, sub 4:07 and sub 9:00 this season as a sophomore. He’ll be carrying the torch for NP next season so I have to imagine he’s going to have a phenomenal summer. He also has the huge benefit of having exceptional teammates to train with, which is an issue for a lot of national class high school boys who have nobody to run with on their team.

Beating Nathan Green will be tough for Sahlman considering he finished as the #3 sophomore at NXN last year, but he should have a good chance to get the 1 point since Green’s team isn’t strong enough to make NXN.

Other people who have the potential to get the 1 point at NXN, and whose teams have a chance to qualify (autoqualify or at large), include Colin Peattie (Bellarmine will get an at large if they get 3rd), Isaac Teeples (Kamiakin is losing a lot of seniors but don’t count them out), Peyton Geehrer from FM, Creed Thompson (Skyridge has the strong potential to qualify), and Jack McLoughlin from Lasalle Academy.