Kelkile Gezahegn will win this if anywhere near his best. He is ranked 7 in the world without testing himself in a major. Has won 6 out of his 11 marathons. 23yo with a best time of 2.05.56 for third in Rotterdam last year. 2018 also won both Frankfurt and Lanzhou.
The women’s event is harder to predict. Last year they had seven women under 2.30 with three sub 2.24 but only have one returning with others moving on to greater things. They will have a very fast debutant in the midst of four or five under 2.24.
Aussiestatman wrote:
The women’s event is harder to predict. Last year they had seven women under 2.30 with three sub 2.24 but only have one returning with others moving on to greater things. They will have a very fast debutant in the midst of four or five under 2.24.
My tip to win it is Afera Godfay Berha, 28yo and ranked 21. In April this year won Dongying in a course record 2.22.41, beating Waganesh Mekasha by 38 sec. That is good form, Waganesh is ranked 33. Afera’s best half is from a third in Usti Nad Labem in 2016, 68.32. Won Guadalajara last Feb in a Mexican all-comers record of 68.53.
Here is the full list. http://vw-ljubljanskimaraton.si/storage/uploads/Novice/VabljeniAtleti2019.pdf
douglas burke wrote:
Here is the full list.
http://vw-ljubljanskimaraton.si/storage/uploads/Novice/VabljeniAtleti2019.pdf
I like how they set out their profiles. Reminds me a bit of somebody who writes profiles on here.
Second place might be Anthony Kiplangat Maritim, 32yo and ranked 170. His PB was for third in Barcelona this year in 2.06.54 after winning there in 2018.
Second female might well be Shitaye Eshete if she has recovered from Doha. Eshete is 29yo and ranked 46. Was in 13th at the 15k at world’s but took 28.20 (that is not a typo) for the next 5k and dropped out in the humidity before 25k. Won Hamburg last year and set her PB finishing second in Prague this year, 2.22.39.
Third to finish could be Vincent Rono, 28yo and ranked 92. His best time was for fifth in Rotterdam this year, 2.07.10. Last year was third in Eindhoven in 2.07.50. Won a half in Lille in 2017 in 59.27.
Third woman may be Kuftu Tahir, 24yo and ranked 195. Won Lisbon last year when the threat of a hurricane could have cancelled the race in 2.24.56. Won by 2.39 and took almost 7 min off her PB. Proved it to be no fluke by winning Barcelona this year in 2.24.44.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
The women’s event is harder to predict. Last year they had seven women under 2.30 with three sub 2.24 but only have one returning with others moving on to greater things. They will have a very fast debutant in the midst of four or five under 2.24.
My tip to win it is Afera Godfay Berha, 28yo and ranked 21. In April this year won Dongying in a course record 2.22.41, beating Waganesh Mekasha by 38 sec. That is good form, Waganesh is ranked 33. Afera’s best half is from a third in Usti Nad Labem in 2016, 68.32. Won Guadalajara last Feb in a Mexican all-comers record of 68.53.
That all-comers was from 2000, set by Paula Radcliffe in the port city of Veracruz.
Fourth to finish should be Mark Korir, 34yo and ranked 78. His PB of 2.05.49 was set in winning Paris 2015. Ran second in Seoul last year in 2.07.03 and has 3 other sub 2.08’s. Ran for Kenya in the 2015 Worlds.
Next lady might be Diana Chemtai Kipyogei on her debut. Couldn’t be as quick as the girl in Amsterdam last Sunday but could go 2.23.xx? He best time in a half was on this weekend last year, fifth in Valencia in 67.07. Also in 2018 won the last truly international Usti Nad Labem in 67.17. Earlier this year was second in Ostia in 67.13 on a course not record eligible.
Next across the line may be Bekele Muluneh, born 2000 so could be 18 or 19, and ranked 220. He was second last year in Shenzhen in 2.11.19.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Bob Ramsak of the IAAF had read this the last day or so.
Fifth female could be Bornes Chepkirui Kitur, born 1988 so is either 30 or 31 and ranked 30. Won Prague in 2018 in her PB of 2.24.19 and returned there this last May to try to defend but had a DNF. Here is my profile from then:
Fifth among the women may be last year’s winner, Bornes Chepkirui Kitur, born in 88 so she could be 30 or 31. Ranked 32 and she was third in Osaka early this year in 2.26.01. Ran in three marathons last year including winning here in her PB of 2.24.19 and second in Mumbai in 2,28.48. Also 3 marathons in 2017 all between 2.29 and 2.30, including 2nd in Sydney. So she has podium finishes on three continents in the last three years.
25 Sept 2016, a famous date in marathoning: eight men passed halfway In Berlin in 1.01.11 and Bekele won in 2.03.03. Also on that day, Ezekiel Kemboi Omullo would win in Warsaw for the second time in his PB of 2.08.55. Omullo should be sixth to complete the course here. He is 31yo and ranked 191, don’t confuse him with Ezekiel Kemboi, the 37yo steepler. This Ezekiel burned them that day with 5k splits of 14.56 and 15.09 from 30 to 40k. He also won there in 2018 and was second this year in 2.09.49.
Next woman will, IMHO, be Sentayehu Lewetegn, 23yo and ranked 63. Best time of 2.22.45 finishing sixth in Frankfurt last year. Was fifth this last Jan in Dubai in 2.25.59.
7th to finish may be Berhanu Heye, another born in 2000, ranked 449. Was third in Wuxi in March in 2.10.25 and five weeks ago ran a half in Porto (the time was nothing to write home to his mum about).
Seventh lady might be the legend that is Sharon Cherop, 35yo and ranked 162. Not many marathoners can claim a magical four years like Sharon had from 2009-2013. Track and Field News would rank her top ten all four years, the only other constant being Edna Kiplagat. Cherop would win a bronze at worlds in 2011, win Boston in 2012, and finish runner-up in Berlin in 2013 in her PB of 2.22.28. She would be a regular at both the Boston marathon and the Delhi Half. At the latter event, she would be runner-up in 2011 in 67.08, her best time and until then one of the top twenty performances all-time: Mary K. owned 6 of those. From 2010 to 2015 Cherop would break 2.26.10 nine times. Sharon isn't resting on those laurels, she was 4th here last year in 2.25.02. I'd like to think there would be at least one distance running nut in this city in Slovenia who would line the streets there tomorrow just to catch a glimpse.
Next finisher may be Regasa Mndaye Bejiga, born 1980 so either 38 or 39yo and ranked 197. Best time of 2.09.42 when he won Warsaw this year, beating my sixth choice above.