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    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/06/2019 6:00pm EDT
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Eighth to cross the line i believe will be Barnabus Kiptum, 32yo and ranked 69. His PB was last year in Buenos Aries when second behind Emmanuel Saina in 2.09.19. He was smashed by Saina, who i believe is the 18th best marathoner at this time, with withering 5K bursts of 14.09 between 25 and 30k, then 14.12 for the next 5. That broke him by 3.58 at the end and Kipserem by more. Barnabus won Hong Kong just this last Feb in a similar time.

    Equal leader heading for 2+ min off pb if he hangs on the other two. There is no Saina here.

  • registered

    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/06/2019 6:11pm EDT
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Has a runner on debut over the classic distance ever won a gold label event? I am tipping Zane Robertson to achieve this next month here. I believe he can break his brother’s national record of 2.08.26 but not get Deek’s 33 year old Oceania record of 2.07.51. Zane is 29 and ranked 170 as a road runner. Last year had two road runs, over 10k and 10 miles, finishing 5th and sixth. He is listed with a dnf from Amsterdam 2017 but the IAAF still talk about this as his debut. That event was just five weeks after running a half in Britain in 61.42. His best over that distance was 59.47, second at Marugame in 2015.

    At 30k is among three with a bunny pacing 2.06.52.

    Heading for 2.07.01 at 35k

  • registered

    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/06/2019 6:21pm EDT
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    16th woman should be Kit Ching Yiu of Hong Kong, 31yo. PB of 2.36.11 at the Rio Olympics for 39th. Also 2015 World champs in Beijing was 32nd.

    At 30k, Yiu is 8th, heading for 2.33.14, almost 3 min chopped off her best.

  • registered

    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/06/2019 6:25pm EDT
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    At 30k is among three with a bunny pacing 2.06.52.

    Heading for 2.07.01 at 35k

    40 k split has them still together but heading for 2.07.41. Getting nervous about Deek.

  • registered

    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/06/2019 6:36pm EDT
    re: Westcott is old as balls!!

    Westcott is old as balls!! wrote:

    Exposed form... Westcott has struggled to run under 68mins for a half in years while Adams ran a 62min half and has run many sub 2:14s in past few years. Westcott hasn’t been that fast since like 2009!

    You were exactly right

  • registered

    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/06/2019 6:38pm EDT
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Bernard Lagat is my choice for 12th across the line. He is 44yo and ranked 543. There are so many layers to writing something of interest about him. Went to college in the US from 1996 to 2000. Those last two years had an interesting progression in the mile and 1500m all improving his previous best times. March 99 ran an indoor mile in 3.55.65 then May 4.02.04 outdoors. August ran 1500 in 3.30.61 than April 2000 broke 4 outdoors for the first of many times in 3.54.97. Took that down to 3.49.84 in August and the next month won bronze in the Sydney Olympics in the 1500. Represented the US from 2004 or 5. More about him soon.

    He has an imposing record at world champs, gold double in Osaka 2007 at 1500 and 5000, and three silvers other years. He is one of only four men to break 13min for the 5000 for three consecutive years of 2011-13. Add in the same effort in 2005 and 06. Ran his one and only marathon in New York last year, passing halfway in 66.06, but fading to eighth among Americans in 2.17.20. I am guessing he could run 2.14 if he goes out more conservatively.

    Did he negative split that?

  • registered

    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/06/2019 6:39pm EDT
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    the next few places become difficult as to whether you include the times recorded for Hiroki Sugawa and Takahiro Gunji in Nobeoka this year. i can't find their times on the iaaf website but they are listed as their PB's on the official elite list on the gold coast site. makes a big difference. sugawa best could be 2.11.46 or is it 2.24.14?

    Sixteenth man may be Gunji, 28yo and ranked 1228. If Nobeoka is on the table, his best was there this year in 2.12.55. If not, it was Paris 2017, 21st in 2.19.03. Has run three halfs in under 1.04 and another two under 65 so you would say, like Bernard Lagat, he hits the wall in his marathons. Nobeoka is the anomaly.

    He was on 2.15.38 pace at 30k

  • registered

    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/06/2019 6:40pm EDT
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    the next few places become difficult as to whether you include the times recorded for Hiroki Sugawa and Takahiro Gunji in Nobeoka this year. i can't find their times on the iaaf website but they are listed as their PB's on the official elite list on the gold coast site. makes a big difference. sugawa best could be 2.11.46 or is it 2.24.14?

    I let this conundrum delay me a few days when i didn't have a few days to let it delay me. i now have a window of a few hours and a new resolve. i will include Nobeoka 2019 with an asterisk, sort of like Grandma's at Duluth, CIM Sacramento, and Boston. so here goes:

    14th finisher may be Hiroki Sugawa, 28yo and ranked 706 as a road runner. IAAF doesn't seem to recognize his PB of 2.11.46 in Nobeoka this year. i don't know where that time placed him in that run or even when that run took place? If it didn't happen, his only marathon was here in 2014 when 13th in 2.24.14. His consistent times of 1.03 plus for halfs neither support nor put doubt on the chances of him running that better time, in my opinion. He ran a slower half in the Netherlands only 23 days ago. Lets see what this morning brings.

    Was on 2.13.31 pace at 30k

  • registered

    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/06/2019 11:42pm EDT
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Sixth female and first Aussie may be Milly Clark, 30yo and ranked 425 as a road runner. Her best marathon time is 2.29.07 for third in Amsterdam in 2015. Competed at the last world champs and was 18th in the Rio Olympics in 2.30.53.

    Such as amazing second place. Such a fighter. Passed some accomplished marathoners in the last ten.

  • registered

    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/07/2019 12:44am EDT
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Benny Saint next, IMO, and i’ll explain why?

    He is 37yo and ranked 419 as a road runner. His PB is 2.24.26, finishing 66th in Berlin in 2017. His best at the half is 63.41 in Gifu 2015, running 8th. Like Gunji, has two other performances at the half under 66 min over 6 years, so i guess seems to suffer 'the wall'. Can he convert today to a 2.17 full, we will see soon. His claim to fame over 10000 on the track is that for 3 weeks in 2013, he had the world leading time of 27.37.55, but ended that year with 34th best.

    Turned it around with 2.14.17. Breakthrough.

  • registered

    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/07/2019 4:33pm EDT
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    He is 37yo and ranked 419 as a road runner. His PB is 2.24.26, finishing 66th in Berlin in 2017. His best at the half is 63.41 in Gifu 2015, running 8th. Like Gunji, has two other performances at the half under 66 min over 6 years, so i guess seems to suffer 'the wall'. Can he convert today to a 2.17 full, we will see soon. His claim to fame over 10000 on the track is that for 3 weeks in 2013, he had the world leading time of 27.37.55, but ended that year with 34th best.

    Turned it around with 2.14.17. Breakthrough.

    2.14.27

  • registered

    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/09/2019 5:31am EDT
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    the next few places become difficult as to whether you include the times recorded for Hiroki Sugawa and Takahiro Gunji in Nobeoka this year. i can't find their times on the iaaf website but they are listed as their PB's on the official elite list on the gold coast site. makes a big difference. sugawa best could be 2.11.46 or is it 2.24.14?

    I let this conundrum delay me a few days when i didn't have a few days to let it delay me. i now have a window of a few hours and a new resolve. i will include Nobeoka 2019 with an asterisk, sort of like Grandma's at Duluth, CIM Sacramento, and Boston. so here goes:

    14th finisher may be Hiroki Sugawa, 28yo and ranked 706 as a road runner. IAAF doesn't seem to recognize his PB of 2.11.46 in Nobeoka this year. i don't know where that time placed him in that run or even when that run took place? If it didn't happen, his only marathon was here in 2014 when 13th in 2.24.14. His consistent times of 1.03 plus for halfs neither support nor put doubt on the chances of him running that better time, in my opinion. He ran a slower half in the Netherlands only 23 days ago. Lets see what this morning brings.

    After halfway in 66.29, faded to run 74.19 second half and finish in 2.20.48. What was Nobeoka?

  • registered

    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/09/2019 5:40am EDT
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    the next few places become difficult as to whether you include the times recorded for Hiroki Sugawa and Takahiro Gunji in Nobeoka this year. i can't find their times on the iaaf website but they are listed as their PB's on the official elite list on the gold coast site. makes a big difference. sugawa best could be 2.11.46 or is it 2.24.14?

    Sixteenth man may be Gunji, 28yo and ranked 1228. If Nobeoka is on the table, his best was there this year in 2.12.55. If not, it was Paris 2017, 21st in 2.19.03. Has run three halfs in under 1.04 and another two under 65 so you would say, like Bernard Lagat, he hits the wall in his marathons. Nobeoka is the anomaly.

    He didn’t hit the wall, the wall hit him. Was at 2.15.38 pace at 30k after halfway at 66.29. Second half was 80.10, must have walked and stumbled his way. Finished in 2.26.39, way outside his Paris best.

  • registered

    Subway Surfers

    Member since 06/28/2018.

    3,334 posts. Last post 2 years ago.
    4 years ago 07/09/2019 6:21am EDT
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Has a runner on debut over the classic distance ever won a gold label event? I am tipping Zane Robertson to achieve this next month here. I believe he can break his brother’s national record of 2.08.26 but not get Deek’s 33 year old Oceania record of 2.07.51. Zane is 29 and ranked 170 as a road runner. Last year had two road runs, over 10k and 10 miles, finishing 5th and sixth. He is listed with a dnf from Amsterdam 2017 but the IAAF still talk about this as his debut. That event was just five weeks after running a half in Britain in 61.42. His best over that distance was 59.47, second at Marugame in 2015.

    Impressive prediction Aussie, but it does help when he has an identical twin brother.

  • registered

    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

    9,653 posts. Last post 2 hours ago.
    4 years ago 07/10/2019 10:22pm EDT
    re: Subway Surfers

    Subway Surfers wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Has a runner on debut over the classic distance ever won a gold label event? I am tipping Zane Robertson to achieve this next month here. I believe he can break his brother’s national record of 2.08.26 but not get Deek’s 33 year old Oceania record of 2.07.51. Zane is 29 and ranked 170 as a road runner. Last year had two road runs, over 10k and 10 miles, finishing 5th and sixth. He is listed with a dnf from Amsterdam 2017 but the IAAF still talk about this as his debut. That event was just five weeks after running a half in Britain in 61.42. His best over that distance was 59.47, second at Marugame in 2015.

    Impressive prediction Aussie, but it does help when he has an identical twin brother.

    Someone to train with in foreign surroundings?

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