On Wednesday, Bill Meylan -- who runs the wonderful Tully Runners website -- made his projections for today's NY high school state cross country meet. In the girls' Class A race, he thought it would be incredibly close between Saratoga and Fayetteville-Manlius.
F-M had won 12 straight state titles -- and 11 of the last 12 national titles -- but Meylan believed it would be super close and predicted Saratoga would win by one point.
Today's result?
1. Saratoga, 46 points
2. F-M, 47 points
Incredible.
Full disclosure: Meylan admitted that he thought it was so close that he decided to flip a coin 10 times. Saratoga won 7 of the 10 flips, so he picked them by one point. But it's still crazy impressive.
See Meylan's projections on the left and the actual scores on the right.
https://twitter.com/MLange15/status/1061350576817090561
You can view the original article where Meylan makes his projection here:
http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2018/PredNYStates2018.htm#Girls_Class_A
Also the scores from today were eerily reminiscent of the scores from the last time Saratoga won in 2005.
Just like this year, it was 46-47, and third and fourth both had similar scores as well.
https://twitter.com/jgault13/status/1061356616568791040
Bill Meylan is a genius -- predicts F-M girls will lose NY state meet for 1st time in 13 years by 1 point -- and they do!
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He is good for the sport. Fun analysis.
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I coached for 18 years in NY. Those speed rating s are awesome.
Kids identify themselves by their SR number.
One of my runners once found a fantasy cross-country league using NY runners and their weekly speed ratings! -
Did tuohy run?
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Yes, 17:02 for first place and a speed rating of 169. Her injury must not be too bad.
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Queen FM is dead !!! Long live Queen ‘toga !!!
As an aside , I’ve found his speed ratings to be very accurate . They almost always predict sectional races to a T. -
There's a team called Horseheads? That is so awesome.
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Bill Meylan is legendary.
He is amazing for the sport.
He makes XC in NYS so much better than anywhere else.
(Though he didn’t pick my runner to win Feds, after he did win, Meylan dropped me a note and said he should have listened to me!)
Great guy, great for our sport. -
Jayordon wrote:
Yes, 17:02 for first place and a speed rating of 169. Her injury must not be too bad.
Not an injury. A set back, nothing more. Don't make a mountain out of a molehill. -
When F-M finally loses after 12 straight, it is once again Saratoga. Yes, clearly, genetics is the major factor in distance running.
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Saratoga clearly has the best 1, 2 combo in the country right now (163 and 138 SR today)
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Saratoga ‘s 6th girl held off FM’s 5th to give them the win .
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He has a great handle on the NY scene for sure but really should stick to that because he doesn’t know jack about the west coast.
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Wes Coze wrote:
He has a great handle on the NY scene for sure but really should stick to that because he doesn’t know jack about the west coast.
I’ll bite. I don’t think it’s anywhere near as bad as you think it is, but as he continues doing it for the west coast more and more it will become more accurate. So he should continue so that it is better, not simply stop because it is not currently perfect. -
Hounddogharrier wrote:
Queen FM is dead !!! Long live Queen ‘toga !!!
As an aside , I’ve found his speed ratings to be very accurate . They almost always predict sectional races to a T.
I want Toga in Regionals but don't count FM out. -
It is a city in the southern tier of NY.
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bravo bill!! that is wild. maybe he ought to try elections next.
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Watch for Liverpool at Nike NY Regional. FM only beat them by 1 point at their sectional race to bump them from going to state meet. Liverpool had a key runner with an off day at that meet. Nike NY race will be very interesting! Toga could go home with 3rd!
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So basically he missed both teams’ scores by 12 points, and that somehow impresses you more than him getting one exactly right and the other wrong by 12.
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central governor wrote:
There's a team called Horseheads? That is so awesome.
Something about horses heads on stakes during the Civil War. To freak out the enemy?
It's near Elmira where that POW camp was.
