Kipsang said he might NOT go out with Kipchoge on sunday. Discuss.

NOT MY TACTIC wrote:

Now lets say that Kipsang goes ahead to effect his plans. All Kipchoge needs to do is to talk with his pace makers and have two of them do most of the work in the early stages then the third one can push him to around 35K. From there Kipchoge will be able to cruise to the world record. Kipsang's planned tactic could work only if he were better at finishing than Kipchoge. But as we know, he is not. Expect 2:02:30 or faster for Kipchoge whether or not Kipsang goes out with him.

I pretty much agree. Kipchoge for sure is not an idiot, so he has to be very confident that tomorrow he goes at least 2:02:00-30 bc otherwise he'd set everything up for a scenario in which even a slight blow up like 1:01:00 + 1:02:30 could cost him the WR, a PB AND the win.

It's insane but I say 2:02:25 and Kipchoge ftw. Also hope that Kipsang busts out a good one and Tadese finally rips a nice non aided marathon. Should be exciting.

It's not going to go according to these plans. It never does. Like in London when they went out way too fast through 5k.

A 30s difference at half is 2.5 seconds per mile. There is no way Kipsang is just going to gradually reel out 2.5 seconds every mile like a machine. Maybe there will be a surge at some point in the 4-8 mile range where he decides to let Kipchoge go.

I don't know but the one thing experience says will NOT happen is good, steady pacemaking through halfway for both groups.

FFF wrote:

Why didn't Salazar, who was so obsessed with running for years that he slogged through three or four miles daily with a wrecked body jump through hoops to somehow recover and win Comrades, THEN promptly retire? The 92 Trials or 96 Trials were never an option? NYC or Boston were not an option? Any given 10K other than one I saw him run in 1991 in Kansas City, of all places, was never an option?

There's a big difference between running 54 miles at over 6 minute pace and 26 miles at under 5 minute pace.

Hardloper wrote:

Didn't this exact same issue happen last year or the year before? Then during the race everyone hit the halfway mark together and it was a lot slower than 61:15 or whatever Kipchoge said.

This is exactly what will happen.

RE: Kipsang said he might NOT go out with Kipchoge on sunday. Discuss.

Me too.

Bootsontheground wrote:

At the press conference today he stated he wants to negative split on sunday and hit halfway in 61:30-61:45. Whereas Kipchoge wants a first half in 61:00-61:15. Under this pace, Kipsang said he won't go out with the leaders. Also, there seem to be 6 pacemakers, 3 for Kipchoge's group and 3 for the second group ( Kipsang, Kuma, Kipruto, Tadese ).

My inside information from Kenya tells Kipsang is not in best shape. So it looks to be an easy win for Kipchoge. Will it be a new world record? I`m not sure of that because I think Eliud will be alone the last 6 miles.Will be thrilling to watch.

Bootsontheground wrote:

At the press conference today he stated he wants to negative split on sunday and hit halfway in 61:30-61:45. Whereas Kipchoge wants a first half in 61:00-61:15. Under this pace, Kipsang said he won't go out with the leaders. Also, there seem to be 6 pacemakers, 3 for Kipchoge's group and 3 for the second group ( Kipsang, Kuma, Kipruto, Tadese ).

61-flat for the first half marathon is a pretty insane pace for anyone. That said, it isn't worth losing contact with the lead pack to run 61:30 for the first half unless there is another group running that pace. The advantages of drafting off the pack more than make up for that roughly 3 sec/mile difference.

Reith wrote:

Yes, and most of these keyboard warriors could not even last one mile with Kipchoge in Berlin.

I could last one, maybe 1.5 - 2 miles with Kipchoge! But I'm not a keyboard warrior, just extremely proud of myself.

Kipchoge gets both the win and the WR. Weather looks good and that’s really all that matters. Kipchoge is the GOAT.

3hr-marathoner wrote:

Bootsontheground wrote:

At the press conference today he stated he wants to negative split on sunday and hit halfway in 61:30-61:45. Whereas Kipchoge wants a first half in 61:00-61:15. Under this pace, Kipsang said he won't go out with the leaders. Also, there seem to be 6 pacemakers, 3 for Kipchoge's group and 3 for the second group ( Kipsang, Kuma, Kipruto, Tadese ).

61-flat for the first half marathon is a pretty insane pace for anyone. That said, it isn't worth losing contact with the lead pack to run 61:30 for the first half unless there is another group running that pace. The advantages of drafting off the pack more than make up for that roughly 3 sec/mile difference.

Yes, but of course there is another pace group for the 2nd best marathoner in the world. And 3 other pace groups just behind them also. At least 5 pace groups in all just for the men.

SUPERIOR COACH JS wrote:

My inside information from Kenya tells Kipsang is not in best shape. So it looks to be an easy win for Kipchoge. Will it be a new world record? I`m not sure of that because I think Eliud will be alone the last 6 miles.Will be thrilling to watch.

This is actually the opposite. Kipsang is in the best shape of his life. Unlike in the past he has trained for this quietly and with no interference. In 2013 even the great coach Canova said Kipsang was not in good shape. He mentioned that he was supervising the construction of his hotel/ restaurant KELU. This, of course, was true that he was supervising the construction of his hotel but he also did his training. The outcome that day was a world record.

So why is Kipsang mentioning he will go at a slower pace than Kipchoge? He knows that in an open and transparent competition, Kipchoge would beat him. He knows the world record is at stake and obviously wants to be the one to break it. He knows Kipchoge unlike Bekele ( who likes to drop back) likes to stay at the very front from start to end of the race. And since he cannot run away from him, his(Kipsang's) only chance at winning and maybe breaking the record would be to use a sneak attack on an exhausted Kipchoge. The chances of that working is less than 20% and Kipsang will discover that tomorrow morning. Kipchoge is confident of his ability and knows Kipsang cannot reel him in. Soonest the last pacer drops out at 33K, Kipchoge will get on a cruise control and romp home well clear of Kipsang in 2:02:30. Kipsang comes home faster than Kimetto's record in 2:02:50 but too bad someone else will have run even faster. It will sure be an intriguing race to watch.