MONACO PREDICTIONS, Jager sub 8:00, Coburn sub 9:00

Illegal short trampoline track.

Doped up Kenyans ready to roll out a 3:27.

Banana Bread wrote:

The Monaco track is slightly short(396.13m). That almost 1% shortness means someone in 3:28 shape will look like they've run a wr on this track.

I love you Banana Bread, but will henceforth think of you as "Banana Brain."

Koneko wrote:

Illegal short trampoline track.

Doped up Kenyans ready to roll out a 3:27.

Is it short or is it a trampoline? Make up your mind. If you double the conspiracy, you more than halve the probability.

Banana Bread wrote:

The Monaco track is slightly short(396.13m). That almost 1% shortness means someone in 3:28 shape will look like they've run a wr on this track.

Isnt Monaco one of the last track meets before championship season every year? Wouldn't it make sense that athletes would go for there fastest times at a meet like this, one to get solid marks and world positioning for championships, and two because when they are at there absolute peak theyre usually running for the win and not for times, so running for times when theyre at the closest to peak shape but also not in a race where winning a medal is priority makes sense. I would reckon that this is the real reason why Monaco always sees fast times.

I think Nick Willis even said something similar to this a year or two ago on twitter.

Would like to see a world record. Steeple could be on the cards for Kipruto.

maybe its this? wrote:

Banana Bread wrote:

The Monaco track is slightly short(396.13m). That almost 1% shortness means someone in 3:28 shape will look like they've run a wr on this track.

Isnt Monaco one of the last track meets before championship season every year? Wouldn't it make sense that athletes would go for there fastest times at a meet like this, one to get solid marks and world positioning for championships, and two because when they are at there absolute peak theyre usually running for the win and not for times, so running for times when theyre at the closest to peak shape but also not in a race where winning a medal is priority makes sense. I would reckon that this is the real reason why Monaco always sees fast times.

I think Nick Willis even said something similar to this a year or two ago on twitter.

No no, banana bread has measured the track himself on Google Maps...

douglas burke wrote:

Here are a few Monaco Predictions

Evan Jager 1st American under 8 minutes in the Steeple

Coburn 1st American Woman sub 9 minutes in Steeple

Jakob Ingebrightsen 3:32.9 in 1500 and beats Centro who runs 3:33

Semenya 1:52.9 in 800 WR

Ajee Wilson breaks her own AR

Always a great meet with fast times.

Jager gets 8:00.76

If Kenyans get out quick and stay on it through 2k Coburn runs 8:57, the clean WR and new AR.

Frerichs sits on Coburn for 2k but can't change gears. Hangs on for 9:01 PR but not sub 9.

Praught goes with lead group but can't hang still runs PR and Jamaican record in 9:09.

You nailed your 1500 prediction.

Semenya runs 1:53.8

Ajee Wilson 1:56.58

Subway Surfers wrote:

Banana Bread wrote:

The Monaco track is slightly short(396.13m). That almost 1% shortness means someone in 3:28 shape will look like they've run a wr on this track.

Evidence?

I love this. BB makes an insanely precise pronouncement about the length of the track, and when asked for evidence, makes a general statement about fast times run there and switches to saying it must be the track surface.

I remember when the Stanford track was short, too.

Filip already ran 3:32 this year.

big bro wrote:

ShipYard wrote:

I think the board would explode if that happened, but no. If he's not too tired from his double, he's good for a 3:33-4.

Filip may get close to that. He's extremely good. Clearly top 3 in the world right now.

Obviously Jakob won't get close to 3:29 if he's even running.

Filip ran 3:32 this year already, he's much better than his younger brother objectively right now. He could run 3:30 in the right race which could be Monaco.

the track aint short .

it has got more of a bounce to it

that benefits middle distances .

what , 1/4 to 1/8 of centimeter extra at full stride

will add up by end of 800m or 1500m .

And unlike designer tracks for big championships

other tracks should not offer up benefits like this

and should be deemed illegal .

aduck2022 wrote:

the track aint short .

it has got more of a bounce to it

that benefits middle distances .

what , 1/4 to 1/8 of centimeter extra at full stride

will add up by end of 800m or 1500m .

And unlike designer tracks for big championships

other tracks should not offer up benefits like this

and should be deemed illegal .

Obviously the track is no more bouncy than other tracks used on the circuits. The IAAF has regulations that stipulate every measure of a track, including its stiffness and shock absorption etc.

Douglas, you have lost your mind, again!

ex-runner wrote:

big bro wrote:

Filip may get close to that. He's extremely good. Clearly top 3 in the world right now.

Obviously Jakob won't get close to 3:29 if he's even running.

Filip ran 3:32 this year already, he's much better than his younger brother objectively right now. He could run 3:30 in the right race which could be Monaco.

Jakub Holusa, the Czech runner, pipped Filip in Paris and has the fastest European 1500m of this year. Both could get close to 3:30. It's a shame Jake Wightman doesn't appear to be in form to set a pb. Shame Charlie Grice isn't in the race, as he is in form.

I don't expect Jakob to run near 3:30 either, it would be great if he ran under 3:34. If he runs sub 3:34 I'd bet my hat that he'll be running sub 3:30 next season.

I noticed Ferguson Rotich is on the 1500 startlist. Interested to see how he goes.

Saruni and Amos were on the (non-DL) 800 entry list yesterday, but now Saruni has been taken off. Disappointingly no Korir either.

maybe its this? wrote:

Banana Bread wrote:

The Monaco track is slightly short(396.13m). That almost 1% shortness means someone in 3:28 shape will look like they've run a wr on this track.

Isnt Monaco one of the last track meets before championship season every year? Wouldn't it make sense that athletes would go for there fastest times at a meet like this, one to get solid marks and world positioning for championships, and two because when they are at there absolute peak theyre usually running for the win and not for times, so running for times when theyre at the closest to peak shape but also not in a race where winning a medal is priority makes sense. I would reckon that this is the real reason why Monaco always sees fast times.

I think Nick Willis even said something similar to this a year or two ago on twitter.

Why is it only in the last 10 years or so that it's consistently produced the fastest times of the season? It's was held around the same time of year before that, and yet the best EPO era performances were set in places like Rome and Berlin.

Presumably the mondo track was laid down around 2005 or so.

MakwalaFan wrote:

I noticed Ferguson Rotich is on the 1500 startlist. Interested to see how he goes.

DNF, mark my words.

ghjhhh wrote:

Douglas, you have lost your mind, again!

When Doug kept saying Mary Cain should find a DL race, I thought he was completely unhinged. They I realized I wasn't giving him enough credit. Doug's truly an eternal optimist. Like everyone's dream grandmother, he honestly believes everyone's next race can be their best race.

Centro: 3:33

Jakob: 3:34.87

Cobourn: 9:07

Jager: 8:04

Felipe: 3:31

@me if I win.