Phantasy Star wrote:
Houlihan is clean. An incredibly dedicated athlete.
I think she has a legitimate shot at Muir's 3:55 clean 1500 WR, though Nozomi MF'ing Tanaka is on the road to 3:53 potential.
I think Houlihan will also run 1:55 and 14:30.
I’m gonna start by saying I don’t think 3:55 is out of Houlihan’s range. Her Lausanne race was incredible.
Two issues with your post. To think that Tanaka has 3:53 ability is absolutely insane. Yes, she ran extremely well at world juniors. I would not say low 4:00s is out if the question depending on how much speed she has. But to suggest 3:53 would mean that she would destroy Houlihan, Muir, Hassan, Kilyegon, Semenya, peak Rowbury and Simpson and many others. Heck your suggesting that she would stay close to peak Dibaba. Let’s compare 3,000 times. Tanaka’s 8:54 was a pb. Let’s give her high 8:40s in optimal conditions considering good pacing and that she was front running at Worlds. That is still about 10 seconds off of Houlihans 8:37 from Monaco. Add in that Houlihan is pretty speed based for a 3,000 and I think its crazy to suggest Tanaka can pull out a 3:53.
Second issue is your estimate of Houlihans ability. 14:30 is a stretch in my opinion. That is saying she’s over 10 seconds faster than a prime Huddle. Rowburys AR is very possible, but I doubt Houlihan will smash it by THAT much. While nobody here knows her true 800m potential considering she hasn’t ran it since her breakthrough, I think 1:55 is crazy. Can she break 2:00? Of course. Can she beat Rodgers, Brown, and Lipsey? Maybe? 1:57? Possible. To say she can run 1:55 means that she is on Ajee Wilson and Francine Nyonsaba’s level. I think that would be a pretty far stretch, but remember that we haven’t seen her run one in a while.