2:48 would be around 450 to 500th place. Did a quick look at past years finish times for runners in the place range and the times range from 2:44 to 2:49.
Obviously the weather slowed people down, but not as drastic as I thought it would be based on the women's start. I think estimating sub 2:40 is too fast, but 2:44 is reasonable.
I'd say for every 30 minutes of racing, you lost at least a minute due to the conditions, and that's being conservative.
darkwave wrote:
I really think it depends on where you were seeded. I was in 1/8, and had friends seeded all over the place.
My estimate based on about 30 runners divided among Waves 1-3, plus watching elite race later:
Elite women's start - added 10-15 minutes to time.
Elite Men and early wave 1 - Added 10-15 minutes to time.
Late wave 1 - added 8-12 minutes to time
Wave 2 - added 6-8 minutes to time.
Wave 3 - added 4-6 minutes to time
No way, I've seen some people really get psyched out or had a really bad reaction to the weather that might result in the times you stated. I was going to say 3-5 minutes slower due to weather maximum as long as you didn't get hypothermia or have a severe adverse reaction.
I ran 10 minutes slower than my qualifying time but only 3 minutes slower than what I figured I could do in great conditions.
It took me 40 hours to get to Boston and landed at 11 pm on Sunday due to horrid weather in Minneapolis and didn't have even close to the training block that I was hoping for, I paid for my lack of preparation in the last few miles on Monday but think I would have fallen off considerably more if it were hot.
Monday was all about adjusting your expectations, not worrying about things out of your control, and focusing on your attitude and things within your control. If you let the poor weather and circumstances dominate your thoughts you were toast before you started.
To OP, sounds like you adjusted pretty well but only you know what kind of shape you were approximately in. Look back at your workouts and recent races and I'm sure you have a pretty good idea, since this was Boston I assume you have run at least 1 other marathon so it's not like you've never gone through a marathon training cycle before.
Comparing the last 5 years of 10th place in each of the age categories,
division 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 average 2018 delta
men 02:27:50 02:15:34 02:21:37 02:13:52 02:12:43 02:18:19 00:09:31
women 02:48:31 02:33:26 02:37:31 02:29:07 02:24:21 02:34:35 00:13:56
m40 02:40:33 02:32:46 02:39:04 02:35:03 02:35:24 02:36:34 00:03:59
w40 03:06:04 03:00:07 03:00:53 02:54:30 02:57:03 02:59:43 00:06:21
m45 02:50:14 02:44:27 02:47:06 02:43:58 02:40:06 02:45:10 00:05:04
w45 03:14:11 03:14:48 03:10:06 03:10:41 03:06:26 03:11:14 00:02:57
m50 02:54:28 02:49:54 02:50:40 02:47:46 02:44:33 02:49:28 00:05:00
w50 03:24:36 03:20:25 03:16:54 03:18:02 03:11:28 03:18:17 00:06:19
m55 02:59:51 02:59:13 02:59:20 02:55:35 02:54:18 02:57:39 00:02:12
w55 03:32:43 03:31:16 03:34:34 03:26:20 03:21:15 03:29:14 00:03:29
m60 03:20:29 03:11:35 03:15:13 03:15:20 03:08:03 03:14:08 00:06:21
w60 03:43:44 03:49:28 03:41:14 03:43:45 03:47:09 03:45:04 23:58:40
the 2018 Boston Marathon was slower than the average Boston Marathon by 00:05:19 except if you were a woman in her sixties, then you ran 1:20 faster.
You could definitely go pro like Yuki
otter wrote:
whoops....237-39
I think these adjustments are too high, though it clearly seemed to affect the fastest runners more disproportionately (obvious, less company/protection, and faster pace/running closer to their max).
I personally ran a 2:59 and doubt that I could have run sub 2:50 with perfect weather. I think that an equivalent would be closer to 2:55. To put it in perspective, I was in better shape and close to 10 seconds/mi faster than when I ran my 2:56 in good weather and flat course in Philly.
The 2:59 in Boston was many fold harder than 2:56 in Philly. So for me I'd think 2:55 or slightly less (about 4-5 min).
For a 2:48, based on pure guess, I would think 2:42 or so?
CIA investigator wrote:
Comparing the last 5 years of 10th place in each of the age categories,
division 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 average 2018 delta
men 02:27:50 02:15:34 02:21:37 02:13:52 02:12:43 02:18:19 00:09:31
women 02:48:31 02:33:26 02:37:31 02:29:07 02:24:21 02:34:35 00:13:56
m40 02:40:33 02:32:46 02:39:04 02:35:03 02:35:24 02:36:34 00:03:59
w40 03:06:04 03:00:07 03:00:53 02:54:30 02:57:03 02:59:43 00:06:21
m45 02:50:14 02:44:27 02:47:06 02:43:58 02:40:06 02:45:10 00:05:04
w45 03:14:11 03:14:48 03:10:06 03:10:41 03:06:26 03:11:14 00:02:57
m50 02:54:28 02:49:54 02:50:40 02:47:46 02:44:33 02:49:28 00:05:00
w50 03:24:36 03:20:25 03:16:54 03:18:02 03:11:28 03:18:17 00:06:19
m55 02:59:51 02:59:13 02:59:20 02:55:35 02:54:18 02:57:39 00:02:12
w55 03:32:43 03:31:16 03:34:34 03:26:20 03:21:15 03:29:14 00:03:29
m60 03:20:29 03:11:35 03:15:13 03:15:20 03:08:03 03:14:08 00:06:21
w60 03:43:44 03:49:28 03:41:14 03:43:45 03:47:09 03:45:04 23:58:40
the 2018 Boston Marathon was slower than the average Boston Marathon by 00:05:19 except if you were a woman in her sixties, then you ran 1:20 faster.
This is my opinion too, it was about ~5minutes. I ran 2:56 and was in about 2:51 shape. I had no adverse reactions. Obviously for those with hypothermia/numb bodies/etc. it was more.
Go race and find out! That's the only sure way to know. Too many variables to answer this question with any amount of accuracy. Go race.
I thought I was in sub-2:40 before the race, planned for a 2:50ish race due to the conditions, went out and ran 2:44 out of the first corral with even splits. It was easier to run tucked in in the first half of the race but it strung out over the hills which made it tough towards the end and as things got worse.
I'm going to say anywhere in the 2 minute to 6 minute range or so. I think 10 minutes is way too much because I know I'm not ready for sub-2:35. Maybe 2:36-37 if everything clicked on the right day but for likely 2:38-40. The elites were there to race each other, we were all there to try to run as fast as we could given the conditions.
Everyone should feel great about finishing that thing. Build fitness for 6 months, take a crack at a fall marathon, and then run well under whatever you did at Boston 2018. Congrats, all.
((I can also see how fast this course can be with good weather and a tail wind...wish I was a marathoner back in 2011...)
well if you think of the intense wind and waterlogged shoes as a vdot penalty
2:48 is vdot 58
2:45 vdot +1 penalty
2:43 vdot +2 penalty
2:41 vdot +3 penalty
2:39 vdot +4 penalty
what's your 5K or even better, half PR? over 1:16 or under?
the problem is that the wind is of course variable and you probably had a stronger first half vs second half (I highly doubt you negative split, I wonder if ANYONE at 2018 negative split?)
Yuki ran 2:15 and has a 2:08 PB, usually runs between 2:08-2:10. So about a 5% performance decrease.
Subtracting 5% from your time (around 8 minutes) gives around 2:40
1:59.86
Depends if you're a man or a woman. At least with the elites the females elites (at least those who finished) were affected far more time-wise than the men.
Maybe 2:45. You're squarely in hobbyjogger territory so it's not like optimal conditions would help you much.
I would say that most of my 10+ friends who ran were about 5 minutes slower then what there goals would have been at Boston in ideal weather. But most of them had good races overall, obviously there is much more potential to completely bonk in weather like Monday...
You need to take into account that Yuki and other pros ran more of their race without any drafting. Yuki basically ran his own race and being alone out front means you suffer more from the wind. I agree with the 5 min estimation although so many variables to consider. If you're a bad downhill runner, you'll hate Boston. If you're better in hot/cold conditions, more variations in time to consider. Like Yuki said, "Best conditions for me"
Your Marathon time: 02:48:00
Your Paul Ryan-adjusted Marathon time: 2:01:48
Congratulations, you have set a new Paul Ryan-certified World Record!
Your time beats the past Men's World Record for Marathon of 2:03:38.
2:27 or so
boston_wet wrote:
Just wondering...
Depends on two things
1) How skinny are you?
2) What did you wear?
Skinny and dressed poorly, I give you 15 minutes.
Clydesdale and dressed well, I give you 2 minutes.
Everything else in between.
If anyone negative split, they went out too conservatively. Crowds thinned out second half, waterlogged, higher winds, less people to draft off of.