Why is Oregon listed in the title?
Stanford. Rojo's bias toward Josh Kerr is astounding right now. He's really really good. He's not invincible. I also don't really remember him ever taking the lead and running hard from the front, although it's possible that I'm not right about that. Regardless, Kerr is best as a kicker in a tactical race, even if he has the raw times to beat anyone in a straight-up race.
But here's what's going to happen. Stanford has a healthy Sean McGorty again. He ran 2:52 3 weeks ago, in his first healthy race in about 15 months. McGorty doesn't have a great kick. He's not going up against some great 1200 rival. His only goal is to run as fast as he possibly can, and that's what he's going to do. Lest you forget, McGorty is a 3:53 miler. Kerr is a 3:54 miler.
McGorty will get a lead, Stanford's 400 can't possibly be that bad, and their 800 guy--whether it's Brandon McGorty or Hari Sathyamurthy--will run a 1:49 or 1:50. That leaves Grant Fisher with the baton, and presumably a lead of 2-4 seconds on Kerr. Say the lead is 3 seconds. Fisher runs the first 1200 in 3:00. Kerr, who may have recently run a sub-4 mile, grinds out a 2:57 to come even with Fisher with 400 to go.
Kerr is a 3:54 miler. He can run a 2:57 and close in 55 for a 3:52 1600 if need be. It would be one of his best performances ever, and it would be a Herculean feat after mile prelim, but he can do it. But Fisher, in his first all-out 1600 in a couple years, ran 3:00 and then a 55 400 in order to qualify for this meet. He's not going to do worse than that. The kid has closed 1500s in 51. If he runs a 55, then Kerr has run one of the best DMR anchor splits of NCAA all-time, while Fisher is just executing as he already has, and the two are essentially tied. If Fisher closes in 54, which he very well could do, then Kerr would need to PR in the mile by a second after having already run a mile a couple hours earlier to win. It's not going to happen.
A tired Kerr vs. fresh Fisher would be a great matchup...if the two were running an open mile. In a DMR, where Fisher should have a healthy lead? No chance.
In conclusion, if Sean McGorty runs a 1200 on pure hate and hands off at 2:50 or 2:51, turn off your TV. It's a foregone conclusion.
I am picking Oregon. They have just too much power in the 1200 and 1600. Kerr and Fisher will have individual events in the back of their minds.
Yes I'm crazy wrote:
Stanford. Rojo's bias toward Josh Kerr is astounding right now. He's really really good. He's not invincible. I also don't really remember him ever taking the lead and running hard from the front, although it's possible that I'm not right about that. Regardless, Kerr is best as a kicker in a tactical race, even if he has the raw times to beat anyone in a straight-up race.
But here's what's going to happen. Stanford has a healthy Sean McGorty again. He ran 2:52 3 weeks ago, in his first healthy race in about 15 months. McGorty doesn't have a great kick. He's not going up against some great 1200 rival. His only goal is to run as fast as he possibly can, and that's what he's going to do. Lest you forget, McGorty is a 3:53 miler. Kerr is a 3:54 miler.
McGorty will get a lead, Stanford's 400 can't possibly be that bad, and their 800 guy--whether it's Brandon McGorty or Hari Sathyamurthy--will run a 1:49 or 1:50. That leaves Grant Fisher with the baton, and presumably a lead of 2-4 seconds on Kerr. Say the lead is 3 seconds. Fisher runs the first 1200 in 3:00. Kerr, who may have recently run a sub-4 mile, grinds out a 2:57 to come even with Fisher with 400 to go.
Kerr is a 3:54 miler. He can run a 2:57 and close in 55 for a 3:52 1600 if need be. It would be one of his best performances ever, and it would be a Herculean feat after mile prelim, but he can do it. But Fisher, in his first all-out 1600 in a couple years, ran 3:00 and then a 55 400 in order to qualify for this meet. He's not going to do worse than that. The kid has closed 1500s in 51. If he runs a 55, then Kerr has run one of the best DMR anchor splits of NCAA all-time, while Fisher is just executing as he already has, and the two are essentially tied. If Fisher closes in 54, which he very well could do, then Kerr would need to PR in the mile by a second after having already run a mile a couple hours earlier to win. It's not going to happen.
A tired Kerr vs. fresh Fisher would be a great matchup...if the two were running an open mile. In a DMR, where Fisher should have a healthy lead? No chance.
In conclusion, if Sean McGorty runs a 1200 on pure hate and hands off at 2:50 or 2:51, turn off your TV. It's a foregone conclusion.
I liked your post a lot. Well thought out. I LOVE Kerr but was extremely hesitant to let our official pick by NM. I in fact changed it to Stanford initially as I figured Kerr may get it way back.
But how often have we seen a DMR end with the 1200.? Hardly ever. I saw it a few weeks ago at the Ivy League champs but normally people come back to you. And Stanford looks pretty weak on the 800 leg.
Don't discount Indiana on the mens side. They return nearly their entire team from last year as the only guy replaced is their 400 leg and possibly Teddy Browning replaces Joseph Murphy on the 1200 leg as those two are running very identical times right now. If Murphy runs on the 1200 he's a 4:01 miler who should be near the front of the pack. Their 400 guy is pretty average but should still keep them in it. Daniel Kuhn on the 800 leg is among the best in the country and last year gave Indiana a nearly 2 second lead over the rest of the field before Kyle Mau got run down on anchor. That brings us to Mau. Kyle Mau has run 3:59 for the mile this year and actually BEAT Grant Fisher in the DMR on anchor at the Michigan Power 5 Invitational. Mau qualified in the 3K as well and is leagues better from last year as he is the Big Ten Mile champ. Indiana has the firepower to pull off a victory here if they can get enough of a gap on Kerr. Mau has shown that he has the wheels to defeat Fisher and the team as a whole should not be discounted.
Didn't know I had this login name.
Fisher split 3:00 and closed in 55?
I wasn't. Sure how fat he could close in an honest race. That answers it if true.
I'm gonna say if everyone runs their guys, Virginia Tech wins. I think the same would've gone for last year
I believe its two questions separated by gender. Kerr and Fisher are referring to the men's race. Stanford and Oregon are referring to the Women's race. I am picking Stanford for the Men and Oregon for the Women.
Kuhn got passed at the Bigten meet by Iowa in the 800 leg. He doesn’t look ready to move his team into the lead against the best in the country. Wisconsin might be another Bigten team to watch. Their anchor ran 3:54 at Notre Dame. If the 1200 leg gets out with leaders, I wouldn’t count them out.
The first post explaining how NM would have to play catch up was an astounding display of logic; however, the DMR is NOT an astounding display of logic. 2:52 1:48 :47 3:55. That sounds very reasonable, doesn’t it? Guess what. That’s a collegiate record. That race is barely ever run at full tilt for four legs. The seasoned spectator knows to expect 3 to 5 sub4 milers to get the baton within a second or two of each other, jog 30-31s and torch the last 300m. Maybe a guy gets enough confidence to kick from 6-800 (I.e. 2017 mile).
Oregon is so deep right now, they may have fresh guys competing who have no reason not to go all out.
Stanovsek or McGorty?
I think VT has a great shot at this. They have 3 studs in Ciattei, Gourley and Joseph. Gourley won ACCs in the 800, Ciattei in the Mile with ease and all three are sub 4 runners.
Last year Ciattei took them from 5th to the 2nd and has only improved making outdoor national finals in the 1500 and having a great indoor season so far (He lost to Engels and Chelimo by less than a second).
Iota wrote:
I think VT has a great shot at this. They have 3 studs in Ciattei, Gourley and Joseph. Gourley won ACCs in the 800, Ciattei in the Mile with ease and all three are sub 4 runners.
Last year Ciattei took them from 5th to the 2nd and has only improved making outdoor national finals in the 1500 and having a great indoor season so far (He lost to Engels and Chelimo by less than a second).
I like VT's team a lot too, but all three of those guys are entered in the mile. Remember, last year VT chose not to double back any of their guys in individual events (granted, they still got 2nd with their "B" team). If they all double back, I think they have a shot but they might be tired as well.
Fisher - no doubt in my mind. More importantly, no doubt in Fishers mind.
Go Stanford!
Yes I'm crazy wrote:
Stanford. Rojo's bias toward Josh Kerr is astounding right now. He's really really good. He's not invincible. I also don't really remember him ever taking the lead and running hard from the front, although it's possible that I'm not right about that. Regardless, Kerr is best as a kicker in a tactical race, even if he has the raw times to beat anyone in a straight-up race.
But here's what's going to happen. Stanford has a healthy Sean McGorty again. He ran 2:52 3 weeks ago, in his first healthy race in about 15 months. McGorty doesn't have a great kick. He's not going up against some great 1200 rival. His only goal is to run as fast as he possibly can, and that's what he's going to do. Lest you forget, McGorty is a 3:53 miler. Kerr is a 3:54 miler.
McGorty will get a lead, Stanford's 400 can't possibly be that bad, and their 800 guy--whether it's Brandon McGorty or Hari Sathyamurthy--will run a 1:49 or 1:50. That leaves Grant Fisher with the baton, and presumably a lead of 2-4 seconds on Kerr. Say the lead is 3 seconds. Fisher runs the first 1200 in 3:00. Kerr, who may have recently run a sub-4 mile, grinds out a 2:57 to come even with Fisher with 400 to go.
Kerr is a 3:54 miler. He can run a 2:57 and close in 55 for a 3:52 1600 if need be. It would be one of his best performances ever, and it would be a Herculean feat after mile prelim, but he can do it. But Fisher, in his first all-out 1600 in a couple years, ran 3:00 and then a 55 400 in order to qualify for this meet. He's not going to do worse than that. The kid has closed 1500s in 51. If he runs a 55, then Kerr has run one of the best DMR anchor splits of NCAA all-time, while Fisher is just executing as he already has, and the two are essentially tied. If Fisher closes in 54, which he very well could do, then Kerr would need to PR in the mile by a second after having already run a mile a couple hours earlier to win. It's not going to happen.
A tired Kerr vs. fresh Fisher would be a great matchup...if the two were running an open mile. In a DMR, where Fisher should have a healthy lead? No chance.
In conclusion, if Sean McGorty runs a 1200 on pure hate and hands off at 2:50 or 2:51, turn off your TV. It's a foregone conclusion.
That's EXACTLY how I see this race, too (assuming McG has stayed healthy the last few weeks, and is coming in at full strength).
Nicely laid out.
Yes I'm crazy wrote:
Stanford. Rojo's bias toward Josh Kerr is astounding right now. He's really really good. He's not invincible. I also don't really remember him ever taking the lead and running hard from the front, although it's possible that I'm not right about that. Regardless, Kerr is best as a kicker in a tactical race, even if he has the raw times to beat anyone in a straight-up race.
But here's what's going to happen. Stanford has a healthy Sean McGorty again. He ran 2:52 3 weeks ago, in his first healthy race in about 15 months. McGorty doesn't have a great kick. He's not going up against some great 1200 rival. His only goal is to run as fast as he possibly can, and that's what he's going to do. Lest you forget, McGorty is a 3:53 miler. Kerr is a 3:54 miler.
McGorty will get a lead, Stanford's 400 can't possibly be that bad, and their 800 guy--whether it's Brandon McGorty or Hari Sathyamurthy--will run a 1:49 or 1:50. That leaves Grant Fisher with the baton, and presumably a lead of 2-4 seconds on Kerr. Say the lead is 3 seconds. Fisher runs the first 1200 in 3:00. Kerr, who may have recently run a sub-4 mile, grinds out a 2:57 to come even with Fisher with 400 to go.
Kerr is a 3:54 miler. He can run a 2:57 and close in 55 for a 3:52 1600 if need be. It would be one of his best performances ever, and it would be a Herculean feat after mile prelim, but he can do it. But Fisher, in his first all-out 1600 in a couple years, ran 3:00 and then a 55 400 in order to qualify for this meet. He's not going to do worse than that. The kid has closed 1500s in 51. If he runs a 55, then Kerr has run one of the best DMR anchor splits of NCAA all-time, while Fisher is just executing as he already has, and the two are essentially tied. If Fisher closes in 54, which he very well could do, then Kerr would need to PR in the mile by a second after having already run a mile a couple hours earlier to win. It's not going to happen.
A tired Kerr vs. fresh Fisher would be a great matchup...if the two were running an open mile. In a DMR, where Fisher should have a healthy lead? No chance.
In conclusion, if Sean McGorty runs a 1200 on pure hate and hands off at 2:50 or 2:51, turn off your TV. It's a foregone conclusion.
Great post. Simply put it, Fisher can kick hard.
Genius
Anyone know where there’s splits