2017 NYC Marathon international field is out - Geoffrey Kamworor + defending champs lead the way

Check your math - you are off by an order of magnitude.

Just food for thought in comparing the New York City Marathon to Chicago, there are three Olympic medalists in the entire field at NYC including Mare Dibaba (Bronze- 2016), Shalane Flanagan (Bronze- 2016) and Meb (Silver- 2004). Chicago meanwhile has five in Galen Rupp (Silver- 2012, Bronze- 2016), Zersenay Tadese (Bronze- 2004), Abel Kirui (Silver- 2012) Feyisa Lelisa (Silver- 2012) and Tirunesh Dibaba (Record speaks for itself). If you go by depth of times then NYC is faster but in Olympic acumen Chicago has an edge.

Name Personal Best Marathon Twitter Handle

Lemi Berhanu (ETH) 2:04:33

Lelisa Desisa (ETH) 2:04:45

Geoffrey Kamworor (KEN) 2:06:12 @GKamworor

Tadesse Abraham (SUI) 2:06:40 @run_tade

Lucas Rotich (KEN) 2:07:17

Ghirmay Ghebreslassie (ERI) 2:07:46

Hiroyuki Yamamoto (JPN) 2:09:12

Michael Butter (NED) 2:09:58 @michelbutter

Koen Naert (BEL) 2:10:16 @KoenNaert

Bayron Piedra (ECU) 2:14:12 @ByronPiedra_20

Francesco Puppi (ITA) Debut @fra_puppinho

Name Personal Best Marathon Twitter Handle

Mary Keitany (KEN) 2:17:01 @MaryKeitany

Edna Kiplagat (KEN) 2:19:50 @KiplagatEdna

Mare Dibaba (ETH) 2:19:52

Tigist Tufa (ETH) 2:21:52

Mamitu Daska (ETH) 2:21:59 @Mamitu_Daska

Christelle Daunay (FRA) 2:24:22

Jessica Augusto (POR) 2:24:33

Kaoru Nagao (JPN) 2:26:58

Miranda Boonstra (NED) 2:27:32 @mirandaboonstra

Diane Nukuri (BDI) 2:27:50 @dnjbdi

Emma Quaglia (ITA) 2:28:15 @emmaquaglia

Adriana Da Silva (BRA) 2:29:17

Eva Vrabcova (CZE) 2:30:10 @evavrabcova

Askale Merachi (ETH) 2:32:25

Beverly Ramos (PUR) 2:36:31 @Beverly_Ramos

Manuela Soccol (BEL) 2:37:09 @ManuelaSoccol

Dailin Belmonte (CUB) 2:38:08

Charlotte Karlsson (SWE) 2:42:29

Marie-Ange Brumelot (FRA) 2:48:46 @Marie11201

Gloria Giudici (ITA) 2:48:55

Sara Dossena (ITA) Debut @sarydossy

Betsy Saina (KEN) Debut @bcsaina

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/08/2017-new-york-city-marathon-elite-field-announced-defending-champs-ghirmay-ghebreslassie-mary-keitany-along-geoffrey-kamworor-lead-way/

Looking at the men's field, if you count Meb and Abdi, New York has the following number of sub-2:06, sub-2:08 and sub2:10 runners in it's field for this year.

Sub-2:06: 2

Sub-2:08: 6

Sub-2:10: 10

Judging of of personal best times, that means the two US majors this fall - NY and Chi - will have the least number of sub-206, 208 and 210 of any of the majors. The average number of sub-206, sub-208 and sub-210 runners over the last year for the majors is 5.6, 9 and 12.4

Here is a chart we are putting in this week's WTW that shows you the numbers for the majors dating back to last year (Berlin and NY are for last year not this year).

Chi WC Lon Bos Tok Dubai NY Berlin Avg #

#sub-2:06 2 5 6 7 5 6 2 8 5.5

#sub-2:08 3* 9 7 10 9 12 5 11 9.6

# sub-2:10 5* 14 14 13 14 12 6 14 12.4

The numbers above are for the following marathons: 2017 Chicago, 2017 Worlds, 20176 London, 2017 Boston, 2017 Dubai, 2016 NY, 2016 Berlin.

lalalland wrote:

Check your math - you are off by an order of magnitude.

We are looking at the average ignoring Chicago from this year. We double checked the math and changed the middle number from 9.6 to 9.0.

You can see the chart in color here:

rojo wrote:

lalalland wrote:

Check your math - you are off by an order of magnitude.

We are looking at the average ignoring Chicago from this year. We double checked the math and changed the middle number from 9.6 to 9.0.

You can see the chart in color here:

He's talking about the .01%. 49 out of 49,000 is actually 0.1%.

But your point remains the same, and is well taken.

This thread lacks weight, because the focus is being put on the Men's field, when the Marathon is about the elite performance of both men and women. The women's field is of good quality, where there are three sub 2:20 marathoners running.

How many ACTIVE sub 2:06 guys exist? 10?

In the fall, we all know that the top elite men are going to want to do Berlin, since Berlin is the fastest record eligible course in the world, so that is a given. The majority of the sub 2:06 guys are going to go there, and the rest are going to go to Chicago, and then after that New York.

I don't see what the big deal is, because the field is still highly competitive. There is going to be quality competition across all the fall marathons. The races will be very intriguing.

.001

scorpion_runner wrote:

How many ACTIVE sub 2:06 guys exist? 10?

.

By my count of the all-time IAAF list, 25 guys have gone sub-2:06 since 2014 (out of 67 total). I would guess most of them are still active, plus probably a few more who did it longer ago.

There are some who most would say have no chance of running that fast again, like Kimetto who last went under 2:06 in 2015 (2:05:50) but since then rarely finishes or even makes it to the start line most marathons, or Abel Kirui who last did it in *2009* ... and yet those two are the international headliners in Chicago.

Then you have most of the Ethiopians who have gone sub-2:06 at Dubai, who probably won't do that again (at least anywhere else) but they can still pad the stat-line of a major marathon.

rojo wrote:

My fears that marathons are turning into nothing more than than charity/inspire/fitness runs grows larger each passing year.

This seems to be the case for London.

A person outside the UK can't get in unless he pays $5000 for a charity bib.

A fast qualifying time won't get a person in if he is not a UK citizen.

They must love rejecting those runners in the breakaway colonies.

scorpion_runner wrote:

This thread lacks weight, because the focus is being put on the Men's field, when the Marathon is about the elite performance of both men and women. The women's field is of good quality, where there are three sub 2:20 marathoners running.

How many ACTIVE sub 2:06 guys exist? 10?

In the fall, we all know that the top elite men are going to want to do Berlin, since Berlin is the fastest record eligible course in the world, so that is a given. The majority of the sub 2:06 guys are going to go there, and the rest are going to go to Chicago, and then after that New York.

I don't see what the big deal is, because the field is still highly competitive. There is going to be quality competition across all the fall marathons. The races will be very intriguing.

+1000

Doing NYC this fall and looking forward to it! This women's field looks stacked and there are some pretty solid names on the men's side. Looking to see what Kamworor can do against some studs.

Classic LRC looking only at the men's field to start up some drama. The fields look good to me

NERunner053 wrote:

Classic LRC looking only at the men's field to start up some drama. The fields look good to me

+1

Did ya'll even glance at the women's field? Also another poster said it well on the men's side. How many marathoners on the planet are currently in sub-2:05-2:06 pace?

NYC Field: Lemi Berhanu (2:04:33), Lelisa Desisa (2:04:45), Geoffrey Kamworor (2:06:12), Tadesse Abraham (2:06:40), Lucas Rotich (2:07:17), Ghirmay Ghebreslassie (2:07:46), Meb Keflezighi (2:08:37), Abdi Abdirahman (2:08:56), Jared Ward (2:11:30), Shadrack Biwott (2:12:01), Christo Landry (2:14:30)

NYC isn't a course where you go to time trial. Look at some of the racers you have in here. You have a bunch of gamers and anyone could pull out a win. Kamworor is one of the best runners on the planet but he's 'only' a 2:06 guy so he isn't relevant for your sub-2:06 statistic. Ghebreslassie is a 2:07 guy and the defending champ. Again not relevant for your statistics. This field has a dozen guys that will be together through halfway. Race organizers put a quality field together and it will be fun to watch. Berlin has three studs and nobody stands a chance to win outside of those three. It'll watch like a 5000m time trial on the track.

Hey Brojos, you want to help build the sport? Stop starting click bait drama and highlight the matchups that we get to watch in Chicago and in NY. You could have posted this headline: Ghebreslassie returns to NYC to Defend Title Against studs Berhanu, Desisa, Kamoror, and the American contingent. Instead you're on the message boards complaining.

Also World Champs just happened so that'll put a small dent into some of the fall marathons. I think it'll be more interesting to see how Chicago & NYC stack up next year or to look back and see if there is a usual drop off in a World Champ/Olympic year.

NERunner053 wrote:

Classic LRC looking only at the men's field to start up some drama. The fields look good to me

Man, the logic in yalls brains must be off right now.

We paid attention to the men's field because Rupp is in the men's field in Chicago. The field amassed against him seemed to be a little lacking. If you read the WTW, you'll see an extensive analysis of that. As we were finishing up that analysis, the 2017 NYC field came out so we just included the men's # of sub-2:06,2:08 and 2:10 for a quick comparison instead of really analyzing it in depth as we were working on other things.

We post facts.... And you guys get mad and accuse us of stirring up controversy?

And what does the women's field have to do with the men's field?

If I say the Chicago Bulls aren't any good, is that invalidated if the Chicago Sky are good?

Rojo: "The US men aren't going to win the world cup in 2018."

LRC critic: "How dare you say that. The US women have won nearly half of the world cups held in history."

You seem to have completely missed the point. And kudos to you for starting off with something insulting. You have a way with conversations.

The points being made above that you didn't try to address:

There really aren't that many (active) sub-2:05 guys.

There are a lot of gamers in both the Chicago and NYC fields.

Ya'll could be promoting the matchups that we get to watch rather than complain on the boards and stir things up.

Your comparison to men's and women's basketball lacks weight because the teams don't operate on the same budget. They don't play in the same game as one another.

I'll add instead of just saying the fields are bad acknowledge that London, Boston, and the World Champs has probably dried up some of the pool. Plus Berlin gets the studs going for the WR.

Since we now live in an age where everything is offensive to everyone, I may as well go ahead and just call a spade a spade. Nobody cares about the elite field at NYC or anywhere else (except for maybe those in the elite field and a hundred or so running nerds around the country). What is the one thing people care about even less? (elite field and running nerds included) The wheelchair race. Don't get me wrong I'm glad they aren't sitting in nursing homes getting bed sores and pneumonia. On the other hand nobody gives a crap how fast you wheel a course. It isn't running. It isn't even close. In fact they probably should compete in cycling events. The only use they service in running events (notice I didn't say races) is for a feel good story for the local media when some poor schlep in a regular chair pushed himself over a 10K course in 2 hours.

When did we ever talk about sub-2:05 guys?

What really concerns us is the lack of 2:08 guys in Chicago. 3 just isn't enough. Now maybe if you count Rupp that's 4 but I'd like to see at least 6.

Last year, New york had 5 sub 2:08 guys and we liked the field but five sub-208 guys really isn't enough in my book. I mean if two or three of them show up hurt, you don't want a 2:09 Japanese guy winning the race.

I've done some research this morning. I went back and looked at all of the WMM winners since Tokyo was added to the field in 2013. I didn't look at Worlds as it's a hot weather race. So 27 races.

Of those 27 races,

100% of them have been won by guy with a pb under 2:10.

96.3% (26/27) have been won by a guy with a PR under 2:08 (Meb being the lone exeption at 2:09:08).

92.6% (25/27) have been won by a guy with a PR under 2:07 (G. Gebrelsassie joins Meb).

So the two guys who won a major without a sub-2:07 PB were Ghirmay Ghebrselassie and Meb Kelfezighi, one a world champ and one a prior major winner/Olympic medallist. So 100% of the winners had a sub-2:07 pr or a global medal to their name (that's why we count Rupp as a sub 2:08 guy but maybe we should move it down to sub 2:07).

88.9% had a PR under 2:06

70.4% had a PR under 2:05

22.2% had a PR under 2:04

So it's pretty clear, we should be focused on who in these races has a medal to their name or PR under 2:07. If they don't have one of those two , they aren't going to win.

By those standards, 2017 Chicago currently has 3 potential winners in the field this year. That's simply not enough. If Kimetto shows up injured or pulls out like he did last year, you are pretty much screwed.

By those standards, 2017 New York has 6 potential winners in it's men's field this year (and that's counting Meb).

We are being nice and saying just give us 2-3 more sub-2:08 guys in case people don't show up in shape.

Research is here:

Rojo just crushed it right here