Mars2024 wrote:
I would say you're almost out of luck. If they are kicking to win in a similar PR range, they've got the ability to run faster regardless.
That being said, I always hated when people threw surges in because unless I knew their PRs already, I would have to chase them down.
I would mostly agree with this. The only real way to beat someone of equal ability but faster kick (or someone of slightly better ability) is to do stuff that makes the person doubt himself.
A couple of years ago, my boys team had been beaten twice by a league rival (not really even that close). We knew we were improving and that we'd give the other team a race at league finals. We knew that to win, our top 3 boys would have to beat the other team's #1. We knew our #1 guy would probably win the race individually, but that our #2-3 were probably looking at a 4th to 6th place finish.
The plan we came up with was to hang back behind the other team's pack for a mile and a half. From the mile point to the 1.5 miles is a pretty straight stretch that is almost always run into a headwind. We hoped to force the other guys in the race to tire themselves out a bit. There's a small downhill after the 1.5 mile mark and our plan was for our top 3 guys to just run flat out from that point to the finish line, surprising the other team and making them doubt themselves.
The plan worked really well. There was a huge pack together at the 1.5 mile mark (because the other team didn't really want to lead into that head wind either), My 4-6 guys were actually in that pack as well. When my 1-3 guys went hard, they were able to open up a huge lead by the 2.0 mile point. My #1 & #2 guys went 1-2 in the race and my #3 guy kind of died in the last 800 and finished 5th (but still ran a PR). From the race results it was clear that some of the kids from the other team lost confidence over that last 1.5 miles and ended up running slower than their best times of the season.
Ultimately, we lost 35-37 (with the next team back in the 70 point range). But I couldn't have been happier with my kids after that race. They closed a gap that had been over 30 points at the beginning of the season and pushed a team that was better than us all the way to the line. My top dog won the race and my #2 guy beat kids from the rival team that he had never been close to. #3 ran well, but ultimately those two points he gave back at the end cost us the victory. #4-6 knew what was coming at the half way point and just ran their races and caught a bunch of kids that had taken off trying to go with my top guys' surge mid way.
So, yeah. It's tough to beat someone who is better than you, but you can give it your best shot and it might work out.