Hypothetical: Laura Muir 100:1 odds to win the 1500m in London, $1000 minimum bet. Would you take it?

I get what you're saying, she has found rapid improvement and by London could be in contention but she is no where near the favourite, especially as she lacks a strong kick. To be fair to her, if you exclude Dibaba she has the fastest time, but that is excluding Dibaba

It'd be a great bet to take, as she has way more than a 1% chance of finishing first. Her competitors could get busted in the meantime, or fall during the race, or be sick, etc...

Even if none of those things happen, she still has a greater than 1% chance of winning the race given her PRs and the trajectory she's on.

So if you have the bankroll to handle it, it's a +EV bet.

Remeber that this particular "roulette" only spins every two years.

But no betting place would pay 100 to 1 for someone who reaches a world championship final to begin with.

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Ambitous wrote:

I get what you're saying, she has found rapid improvement and by London could be in contention but she is no where near the favourite, especially as she lacks a strong kick. To be fair to her, if you exclude Dibaba she has the fastest time, but that is excluding Dibaba

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Slow Bro wrote:
Her competitors could get busted in the meantime, or fall during the race, or be sick, etc...

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Kipyegon and Dibaba are alone at the top. There is no chance Muir would beat either one unless they were injured and not running

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Poof wrote:

Kipyegon and Dibaba are alone at the top. There is no chance Muir would beat either one unless they were injured and not running

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It seems to me that most Americans haven't got the slightest idea of what we are dealing with with Laura Muir.
She's the bravest 1500m runner out there.
She's as hard as nails,
She is not afraid to hurt herself.and, as a result, I bet she trains harder than any of her competitors.
As to speed!
Well, because she was caught out in Rio from lack of speed. by this summer all that will have changed.
AND, in London she will have a huge home town advantage.

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Not buying it wrote:

I find it astounding that Coe and Radcliffe would say that Muir is a favorite to win gold in London.

If the minimum bet you needed to wager on Muir was $1000, with the payout being $100k, would you take it?

I'd say it would be the most surefire way to lose $1000.

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portsea57 wrote:

It seems to me that most Americans haven't got the slightest idea of what we are dealing with with Laura Muir.
She's the bravest 1500m runner out there.
She's as hard as nails,
She is not afraid to hurt herself.and, as a result, I bet she trains harder than any of her competitors.
As to speed!
Well, because she was caught out in Rio from lack of speed. by this summer all that will have changed.
AND, in London she will have a huge home town advantage.

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It would depend on the odds for her competitors. If I could put down $1k on the first few people I thought would win it and know that any one of them winning it meant a profit, then it would be worthwhile. With Muir in the race (even without Dibaba) you're likely to get an honest pace and this means fewer surprises are likely. The favorites should prevail.

Absolutely! Laura has a connection to the good dope from Italy

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Middle94 wrote:

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Poof wrote:

Kipyegon and Dibaba are alone at the top. There is no chance Muir would beat either one unless they were injured and not running

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Dibaba is likely not running the 1500 and Muir has beaten kipyegon and hold a faster PB.

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pr100 wrote:

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Not buying it wrote:

I find it astounding that Coe and Radcliffe would say that Muir is a favorite to win gold in London.

If the minimum bet you needed to wager on Muir was $1000, with the payout being $100k, would you take it?

I'd say it would be the most surefire way to lose $1000.

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Of course you take it - the bookies are presumably offering shorter than that, so you can sell your position for an immediate profit.

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In a race with solid pace, say 3:12 at 1200, I would give her a very good chance of finishing with a sub 45 second last 300. not many others will be able to run sub 3:57 that way. Problem for her is that the race probably won't develop that way. But if she can get her 800 down to 1:57 (clearly a real possibility based on her indoor 1000) she might just be in the position where she can run and win any kind of race.
Unless something goes wrong, illness or injury etc., I see her as an almost certain medalist in London - but which colour ... ???

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Union Jackass wrote:

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portsea57 wrote:

It seems to me that most Americans haven't got the slightest idea of what we are dealing with with Laura Muir.
She's the bravest 1500m runner out there.
She's as hard as nails,
She is not afraid to hurt herself.and, as a result, I bet she trains harder than any of her competitors.
As to speed!
Well, because she was caught out in Rio from lack of speed. by this summer all that will have changed.
AND, in London she will have a huge home town advantage.

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Or she'll fold under pressure and bomb, becoming the Asafa Powell of distance running.

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That's the bet of the century! She may not be favourite but she has awaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better than a 1% chance of winning which are the odds you are suggesting. If you're a bookie you'd go out of business within days if you took bets like that.

Heck, sign me up for $10k.

I'd honestly put 10k on that. Opportunity of a lifetime to get rich. If I lose 10k, at least I tried to get crazy rich. Can't complain. Most people are satisfied with grinding away everyday and having a false sense of comfort in mediocrity. As long as they feel normal, they're satisfied. But the great individuals will take risks and strive for greatness. Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you'll land among the stars.

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portsea57 wrote:

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Union Jackass wrote:

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portsea57 wrote:

It seems to me that most Americans haven't got the slightest idea of what we are dealing with with Laura Muir.
She's the bravest 1500m runner out there.
She's as hard as nails,
She is not afraid to hurt herself.and, as a result, I bet she trains harder than any of her competitors.
As to speed!
Well, because she was caught out in Rio from lack of speed. by this summer all that will have changed.
AND, in London she will have a huge home town advantage.

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Or she'll fold under pressure and bomb, becoming the Asafa Powell of distance running.

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And, where is your evidence to suggest that she will fold under pressure?

It seems to accepted that Asafa folds when facing opponents he feels are better than him, but Laura clearly does the opposite and rises to the occasions.
And don't bring the Olympics into the argument. Laura best 800m going into the Olympics was 2min plus and so - the way the race was run -she didn't stand a chance of beating the Dibaba and Kipyegon.
BUT!!! That situation will not be repeated in London AND Laura will be a lot faster of 800m by then, anyway.

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