Today is Alexa Efraimson's 20th birthday - How good do you think she'll end up being?

New
  • rojo
    cofounder
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 12:50pm CST
    Forum Index
    I noticed that today is Alexa's 20th birthday and it got me thinking about how I think she'll end up.

    Am I the only one a little worried about Efraimson? I hope America isn't losing another teen prodigy in a way different than just the calendar turning.

    In my mind, 2017 for Efraimson is very reminiscent of 2015 for Mary Cain. The fact that Alexa didn't PR in the 1500 last year has me a little nervous.

    In 2013, Mary Cain was the darling of US track circles as she ran her pb of 4:04.62. The next year (2014) she won World Juniors in the 3000 but we noticed she didn't PR at 1500 (4:06.34) and thus said 2015 be really important for her as if she didn't PR two straight years, we'd be really nervous. And Cain's SB in 2015 was just 4:09.08 and last year it was 4:10.84. It appears now that she's far from a guaranteed future superstar.

    Efraimson, could be following a similar path. In 2015, she ran 4:03.39. But last year, she regressed to 4:06.38. Certainly stellar for a 19-year old but if she doesn't PR this year, I'll be very much worried she's on the path taken by Georgie Clarke and Mary Cain.

    Unfortunately, there is nothing from the indoor season that indicated Efraimson is poised to PR in 2017. Indoors this year, her PB was just 4:29.54 (9th Millrose). That's slower than what she ran last year (4:28.91 for 8th at Millrose). I'll be closely looking at Efraimson's outdoor marks this spring to see which way she's headed.
  • PhallusofZeus
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 12:53pm CST
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    Why the surprise? We all know that young athletes who experience early success esp. at hs levels rarely live up to their apparent potential as seniors. More often, the opposite happens.

    Sydney McLaughlin might be an exception but that's because she's essentially performing as an elite senior - less rare among sprinting ranks than for MD or LD.
  • Cupen
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 12:56pm CST
    re: PhallusofZeus
    Forum Index
    Ask that Cain girl?
  • Indoor?
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 1:11pm CST
    re: Cupen
    Forum Index
    I believe that she can still be good and kind of think she will but how she mentally handles the next couple years are big.

    From a running stand point I am against these distance runners going pro because it seems likely to fail and I'll explain why in a second. I do totally understand that from a financial view they are ahead money wise.

    While the NCAA system is not perfect it does produce pros regularly. Sometimes these pros were absolute studs in HS and sometimes they were not. It's also pretty likely that most athletes in the 4-5 year window of being in College have some injuries, setbacks or something like that and will have seasons here or there that they do not PR. They do however usually still perform well at the conference and national level. So they have some positives working for them. Those that go pro probably have the similar setbacks in that time frame but it's on the national stage, they only ever race against the absolute best and are judged much more on how they do compared to their PR. I believe this is very tough mentally on kids whose life has changed a ton in the last few years and changed in a way that there are very few people that can relate to those changes since so few do it. So 1 setback might turn into not enjoying the sport as much as in the past and then that might lead to another setback or a bad race.... so on and so on.

    I do think Alexa is more naturally talented than Cain which might help her. Her setbacks might not end up as big which may mean she can come out of them easier.
  • Bellwether
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 1:48pm CST
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    At the end of the summer I had the thought that Alexa needed a change of venue to make the next step. She has produced fast times, but is she in a the most professional environment possible for the kind of long term development necessary? If she doesn't make a team she may find herself without a contract when the current one expires
  • douchelin^3
    registered
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 1:55pm CST
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    I don't think there's any reason to be worried yet. One second slower over a mile isn't that bad, considering how miles can vary so many different ways. Maybe if we had her splits for each lap. If she ran 4:35 or something I'd be more worried.
  • Floyd Vivino
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 2:09pm CST
    re: Cupen
    Forum Index
    Cupen wrote:

    Ask that Cain girl?

    Did Mary compete at the Manchester race last year?
  • lkgkj
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 2:40pm CST
    re: Floyd Vivino
    Forum Index
    Don't look too much into her lack of progression in the last year. Care to name this American sweetheart? Should we have crucified Jenny Simpson from 2009-2014?? 4 years of non-improvement.

    1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH
    PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE
    2016 3:58.19 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 27 AUG
    2015 3:57.30 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 17 JUL
    2014 3:57.22 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 05 JUL
    2013 4:00.48 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 19 JUL
    2012 4:04.07 Rovereto (Stadio Quercia) 04 SEP
    2011 4:03.54 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 22 JUL
    2010 4:03.63 New York City (Icahn), NY 12 JUN
    2009 3:59.90 Eugene, OR 07 JUN
    2008 4:11.36 Luzern 16 JUL
  • broken arrow
    registered
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 2:54pm CST
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    It is still too early to write off Cain. Same with Efraimson.
    If Cain has gained ~10 pounds as some have speculated then her power to weight ratio would not be as good as it was 2013 and perhaps she will not improve on those times. Time will tell.

    What happened to Allie O. ? She seemed like the next rising star, but being so tiny I hope they have not pushed her too hard too soon.
  • cvzxcvzx
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 2:56pm CST
    re: lkgkj
    Forum Index
    2011 for Simpson was World gold.
  • Les
    registered
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 3:07pm CST
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    Her negative progression is a bit worrisome. A lot of people don't PR in Olympic years. However, if she shows no improvement this year, I'd definitely be concerned. It is a tendency for people who run fast as teenagers, particularly females, for them to not improve. Contrast with current darling Laura Muir who only ran 4:07 at 20, but improved 10 seconds from her previous year, then the next year ran 4:00. Muir's progression is much more encouraging.
  • Jonathan Gault
    LRC guru
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 3:18pm CST
    re: lkgkj
    Forum Index
    When it comes to young pros, I'm a believer in giving them a long leash in terms of development. Mary Cain made the Olympic Trials final as a sophomore in college. Alexa Efraimson was 6th at the Olympic Trials as a freshman in college. In a vacuum, those are great signs. Cain's result obviously doesn't seem as impressive given everything she's already accomplished. But it's still impressive, and if I had to guess whether she's better in 2017 than 2016, I'd say better.

    As for Efraimson, even though she didn't PR, 2016 was the first time she even made a US final and she finished 6th. So I don't think it's time to worry. Of course, after Cain didn't PR in 2014, I told Robert not to worry because she won World Juniors but he was proved right and she has struggled the last two years.

    I also think it depends on what your expectations are. If you're expecting either of these women to become the next Jenny Simpson, it's almost certainly not going to happen because Jenny Simpson has one of the best careers ever by a female US distance runner. But because they ran significantly faster in HS than Simpson, a lot of people will look at their potential and say "they should be making WC finals/contending for medals."
  • reed
    registered
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 3:57pm CST
    re: Les
    Forum Index
    I certainly don't think Alexa needs to be worried.

    She PRed at 800m in 2016 (2:00.99, PR was 2:01.11).

    She admittedly didn't run great at Millrose, dropping from 7th to 9th in the last 200m and only closing in 33.58. She didn't run very well in 2016 either, as she led the chase pack for too long, and was passed by a few runners in the final 200m as she was involved in some physical contact and almost fell.

    she also placed 6th in the Trials compared to in 2015 when she didn't even make the final.

    another thing (and I didn't know all this stuff, just doing some googling now) is that she got 5th at World Juniors, again in great position with about 200 to go but didn't have anything for the last 100m, and even got beat by Christina Aragon who PRed to get 3rd.

    so looks like Alexa has good enough tactics, is usually in a good position, but can't hang in the last 200m. Even at Pre is 2015 in Alexa's 4:03 PR, she got dragged on perfect pace for the whole race and when she tried to move on the outside in the last 200m she got nowhere.
  • Dyestat Rumor
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 4:00pm CST
    re: Jonathan Gault
    Forum Index
    Jonathan Gault wrote:
    As for Efraimson, even though she didn't PR, 2016 was the first time she even made a US final and she finished 6th. So I don't think it's time to worry. Of course, after Cain didn't PR in 2014, I told Robert not to worry because she won World Juniors but he was proved right and she has struggled the last two years.

    Don't know how that 6th wasn't a DQ
  • lkgkj
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 4:15pm CST
    re: Dyestat Rumor
    Forum Index
    Here is Shannon Rowbury... same deal, but more consistent than Simpson -

    1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH
    PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE
    2016 3:57.78 Zürich (Letzigrund) 01 SEP
    2015 3:56.29 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 17 JUL
    2014 3:59.49 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 05 JUL
    2013 4:01.28 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 19 JUL
    2012 4:03.15 Stockholm (Olympiastadion) 17 AUG
    2011 4:05.73 London (Crystal Palace) 06 AUG
    2010 4:01.30 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 16 JUL
    2009 4:00.81 Zürich (Letzigrund) 28 AUG
    2008 4:00.33 Paris Saint-Denis 18 JUL
    2006 4:12.31 Bloomington, IN 01 JUL
  • lkgkj
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 4:22pm CST
    re: lkgkj
    Forum Index
    Anyone want to guess on this one?

    1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH
    PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE
    2016 4:03.94 Greenville, SC 04 JUN
    2015 4:09.31 Birmingham (Alexander), GBR 07 JUN
    2014 4:04.76 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 05 JUL
    2013 4:08.49 Birmingham (Alexander), GBR 30 JUN
    2013 4:08.49 New York City (Icahn), NY 25 MAY
    2012 4:01.59 Roma (Stadio Olimpico) 31 MAY
    2011 4:00.06 Bruxelles (Boudewijnstadion) 16 SEP
    2010 4:02.40 Lausanne (Pontaise) 08 JUL
    2009 4:09.95 Luzern 15 JUL
    2008 4:06.93 Luzern 16 JUL
    2007 4:17.18 13 MAY
  • lkgkj
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 4:25pm CST
    re: lkgkj
    Forum Index
    This one is fun -

    1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH
    PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE
    2003 4:03.43 Carson, CA 01 JUN
    2002 4:01.02 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 19 JUL
    2001 4:04.85 Palo Alto, CA 09 JUN
    2000 4:01.01 Sacramento, CA 16 JUL
    1999 4:00.35 Sevilla (La Cartuja) 29 AUG
    1998 4:02.29 Boston, MA 30 JUN
    1997 4:03.42 Indianapolis, IN 15 JUN
    1996 4:01.77 Bruxelles 23 AUG
    1995 4:05.18 Sacramento, CA 18 JUN
    1994 4:02.15 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 02 AUG
    1993 4:15.71 01 JAN
    1992 4:03.72 New Orleans, LA 28 JUN
    1989 4:10.91 Oslo 01 JUL
    1988 4:00.46 Indianapolis (University Stadium), IN 23 JUL
    1987 4:03.70 San José, CA 27 JUN
    1986 4:02.6 01 JAN
    1985 4:15.41 01 JAN
    1984 4:11.33 22 JUN
    1983 4:13.09 01 JAN
    1981 4:25.0 01 JAN
    1980 4:32.6 01 JAN
  • lkgkj
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 4:28pm CST
    re: lkgkj
    Forum Index
    Last one -

    1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH
    PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE
    2004 4:09.74 Sacramento, CA 16 JUL
    2003 4:01.69 Roma (Stadio Olimpico) 11 JUL
    2002 3:59.10 Zürich 16 AUG
    2001 4:00.38 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 20 JUL
    2000 3:57.40 Oslo (Bislett) 28 JUL
    1998 3:58.38 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 08 AUG
    1997 4:03.50 Sheffield 29 JUN
    1995 4:05.14 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 25 JUL
    1994 4:06.60 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 02 AUG
    1993 4:15.07 San José, CA 29 MAY
    1991 4:15.54 Tokyo (Olympic Stadium) 29 AUG
    1987 4:09.10 San José (Estadio Nacional), CRC 27 JUN
    1986 4:23.83 Athína (Olympic Stadium) 20 JUL
  • athletica progeria
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 4:35pm CST
    re: lkgkj
    Forum Index
    None of your other examples are prodigies like Cain and Efraimson are they? Nobody thinks too much about an early to mid 20s athlete stalling or regressing a bit.

    When the athlete has no injuries and they start going backwards despite training hard warning bells start going off.
  • this is why they pay him $$$
    3 years ago 02/20/2017 7:09pm CST
    re: Jonathan Gault
    Forum Index
    Jonathan Gault wrote:

    When it comes to young pros, I'm a believer in giving them a long leash in terms of development. Mary Cain made the Olympic Trials final as a sophomore in college. Alexa Efraimson was 6th at the Olympic Trials as a freshman in college. In a vacuum, those are great signs. Cain's result obviously doesn't seem as impressive given everything she's already accomplished. But it's still impressive, and if I had to guess whether she's better in 2017 than 2016, I'd say better.

    As for Efraimson, even though she didn't PR, 2016 was the first time she even made a US final and she finished 6th. So I don't think it's time to worry. Of course, after Cain didn't PR in 2014, I told Robert not to worry because she won World Juniors but he was proved right and she has struggled the last two years.

    I also think it depends on what your expectations are. If you're expecting either of these women to become the next Jenny Simpson, it's almost certainly not going to happen because Jenny Simpson has one of the best careers ever by a female US distance runner. But because they ran significantly faster in HS than Simpson, a lot of people will look at their potential and say "they should be making WC finals/contending for medals."

    Johnny G gets it. Everyone else needs to take a deep breath. Cain shouldn't be written off, and Alexa CERTAINLY shouldn't be.