I noticed that today is Alexa's 20th birthday and it got me thinking about how I think she'll end up.
Am I the only one a little worried about Efraimson? I hope America isn't losing another teen prodigy in a way different than just the calendar turning.
In my mind, 2017 for Efraimson is very reminiscent of 2015 for Mary Cain. The fact that Alexa didn't PR in the 1500 last year has me a little nervous.
In 2013, Mary Cain was the darling of US track circles as she ran her pb of 4:04.62. The next year (2014) she won World Juniors in the 3000 but we noticed she didn't PR at 1500 (4:06.34) and thus said 2015 be really important for her as if she didn't PR two straight years, we'd be really nervous. And Cain's SB in 2015 was just 4:09.08 and last year it was 4:10.84. It appears now that she's far from a guaranteed future superstar.
Efraimson, could be following a similar path. In 2015, she ran 4:03.39. But last year, she regressed to 4:06.38. Certainly stellar for a 19-year old but if she doesn't PR this year, I'll be very much worried she's on the path taken by Georgie Clarke and Mary Cain.
Unfortunately, there is nothing from the indoor season that indicated Efraimson is poised to PR in 2017. Indoors this year, her PB was just 4:29.54 (9th Millrose). That's slower than what she ran last year (4:28.91 for 8th at Millrose). I'll be closely looking at Efraimson's outdoor marks this spring to see which way she's headed.