Today is Alexa Efraimson's 20th birthday - How good do you think she'll end up being?

Why the surprise? We all know that young athletes who experience early success esp. at hs levels rarely live up to their apparent potential as seniors. More often, the opposite happens.

Sydney McLaughlin might be an exception but that's because she's essentially performing as an elite senior - less rare among sprinting ranks than for MD or LD.

Ask that Cain girl?

I believe that she can still be good and kind of think she will but how she mentally handles the next couple years are big.

From a running stand point I am against these distance runners going pro because it seems likely to fail and I'll explain why in a second. I do totally understand that from a financial view they are ahead money wise.

While the NCAA system is not perfect it does produce pros regularly. Sometimes these pros were absolute studs in HS and sometimes they were not. It's also pretty likely that most athletes in the 4-5 year window of being in College have some injuries, setbacks or something like that and will have seasons here or there that they do not PR. They do however usually still perform well at the conference and national level. So they have some positives working for them. Those that go pro probably have the similar setbacks in that time frame but it's on the national stage, they only ever race against the absolute best and are judged much more on how they do compared to their PR. I believe this is very tough mentally on kids whose life has changed a ton in the last few years and changed in a way that there are very few people that can relate to those changes since so few do it. So 1 setback might turn into not enjoying the sport as much as in the past and then that might lead to another setback or a bad race.... so on and so on.

I do think Alexa is more naturally talented than Cain which might help her. Her setbacks might not end up as big which may mean she can come out of them easier.

At the end of the summer I had the thought that Alexa needed a change of venue to make the next step. She has produced fast times, but is she in a the most professional environment possible for the kind of long term development necessary? If she doesn't make a team she may find herself without a contract when the current one expires

I don't think there's any reason to be worried yet. One second slower over a mile isn't that bad, considering how miles can vary so many different ways. Maybe if we had her splits for each lap. If she ran 4:35 or something I'd be more worried.

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Cupen wrote:

Ask that Cain girl?

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Don't look too much into her lack of progression in the last year. Care to name this American sweetheart? Should we have crucified Jenny Simpson from 2009-2014?? 4 years of non-improvement.

1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH
PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE
2016 3:58.19 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 27 AUG
2015 3:57.30 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 17 JUL
2014 3:57.22 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 05 JUL
2013 4:00.48 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 19 JUL
2012 4:04.07 Rovereto (Stadio Quercia) 04 SEP
2011 4:03.54 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 22 JUL
2010 4:03.63 New York City (Icahn), NY 12 JUN
2009 3:59.90 Eugene, OR 07 JUN
2008 4:11.36 Luzern 16 JUL

It is still too early to write off Cain. Same with Efraimson.
If Cain has gained ~10 pounds as some have speculated then her power to weight ratio would not be as good as it was 2013 and perhaps she will not improve on those times. Time will tell.

What happened to Allie O. ? She seemed like the next rising star, but being so tiny I hope they have not pushed her too hard too soon.

2011 for Simpson was World gold.

Her negative progression is a bit worrisome. A lot of people don't PR in Olympic years. However, if she shows no improvement this year, I'd definitely be concerned. It is a tendency for people who run fast as teenagers, particularly females, for them to not improve. Contrast with current darling Laura Muir who only ran 4:07 at 20, but improved 10 seconds from her previous year, then the next year ran 4:00. Muir's progression is much more encouraging.

When it comes to young pros, I'm a believer in giving them a long leash in terms of development. Mary Cain made the Olympic Trials final as a sophomore in college. Alexa Efraimson was 6th at the Olympic Trials as a freshman in college. In a vacuum, those are great signs. Cain's result obviously doesn't seem as impressive given everything she's already accomplished. But it's still impressive, and if I had to guess whether she's better in 2017 than 2016, I'd say better.

As for Efraimson, even though she didn't PR, 2016 was the first time she even made a US final and she finished 6th. So I don't think it's time to worry. Of course, after Cain didn't PR in 2014, I told Robert not to worry because she won World Juniors but he was proved right and she has struggled the last two years.

I also think it depends on what your expectations are. If you're expecting either of these women to become the next Jenny Simpson, it's almost certainly not going to happen because Jenny Simpson has one of the best careers ever by a female US distance runner. But because they ran significantly faster in HS than Simpson, a lot of people will look at their potential and say "they should be making WC finals/contending for medals."

I certainly don't think Alexa needs to be worried.

She PRed at 800m in 2016 (2:00.99, PR was 2:01.11).

She admittedly didn't run great at Millrose, dropping from 7th to 9th in the last 200m and only closing in 33.58. She didn't run very well in 2016 either, as she led the chase pack for too long, and was passed by a few runners in the final 200m as she was involved in some physical contact and almost fell.

she also placed 6th in the Trials compared to in 2015 when she didn't even make the final.

another thing (and I didn't know all this stuff, just doing some googling now) is that she got 5th at World Juniors, again in great position with about 200 to go but didn't have anything for the last 100m, and even got beat by Christina Aragon who PRed to get 3rd.

so looks like Alexa has good enough tactics, is usually in a good position, but can't hang in the last 200m. Even at Pre is 2015 in Alexa's 4:03 PR, she got dragged on perfect pace for the whole race and when she tried to move on the outside in the last 200m she got nowhere.

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Jonathan Gault wrote:
As for Efraimson, even though she didn't PR, 2016 was the first time she even made a US final and she finished 6th. So I don't think it's time to worry. Of course, after Cain didn't PR in 2014, I told Robert not to worry because she won World Juniors but he was proved right and she has struggled the last two years.

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Here is Shannon Rowbury... same deal, but more consistent than Simpson -

1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH
PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE
2016 3:57.78 Zürich (Letzigrund) 01 SEP
2015 3:56.29 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 17 JUL
2014 3:59.49 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 05 JUL
2013 4:01.28 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 19 JUL
2012 4:03.15 Stockholm (Olympiastadion) 17 AUG
2011 4:05.73 London (Crystal Palace) 06 AUG
2010 4:01.30 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 16 JUL
2009 4:00.81 Zürich (Letzigrund) 28 AUG
2008 4:00.33 Paris Saint-Denis 18 JUL
2006 4:12.31 Bloomington, IN 01 JUL

Anyone want to guess on this one?

1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH
PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE
2016 4:03.94 Greenville, SC 04 JUN
2015 4:09.31 Birmingham (Alexander), GBR 07 JUN
2014 4:04.76 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 05 JUL
2013 4:08.49 Birmingham (Alexander), GBR 30 JUN
2013 4:08.49 New York City (Icahn), NY 25 MAY
2012 4:01.59 Roma (Stadio Olimpico) 31 MAY
2011 4:00.06 Bruxelles (Boudewijnstadion) 16 SEP
2010 4:02.40 Lausanne (Pontaise) 08 JUL
2009 4:09.95 Luzern 15 JUL
2008 4:06.93 Luzern 16 JUL
2007 4:17.18 13 MAY

This one is fun -

1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH
PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE
2003 4:03.43 Carson, CA 01 JUN
2002 4:01.02 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 19 JUL
2001 4:04.85 Palo Alto, CA 09 JUN
2000 4:01.01 Sacramento, CA 16 JUL
1999 4:00.35 Sevilla (La Cartuja) 29 AUG
1998 4:02.29 Boston, MA 30 JUN
1997 4:03.42 Indianapolis, IN 15 JUN
1996 4:01.77 Bruxelles 23 AUG
1995 4:05.18 Sacramento, CA 18 JUN
1994 4:02.15 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 02 AUG
1993 4:15.71 01 JAN
1992 4:03.72 New Orleans, LA 28 JUN
1989 4:10.91 Oslo 01 JUL
1988 4:00.46 Indianapolis (University Stadium), IN 23 JUL
1987 4:03.70 San José, CA 27 JUN
1986 4:02.6 01 JAN
1985 4:15.41 01 JAN
1984 4:11.33 22 JUN
1983 4:13.09 01 JAN
1981 4:25.0 01 JAN
1980 4:32.6 01 JAN

Last one -

1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH
PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE
2004 4:09.74 Sacramento, CA 16 JUL
2003 4:01.69 Roma (Stadio Olimpico) 11 JUL
2002 3:59.10 Zürich 16 AUG
2001 4:00.38 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 20 JUL
2000 3:57.40 Oslo (Bislett) 28 JUL
1998 3:58.38 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 08 AUG
1997 4:03.50 Sheffield 29 JUN
1995 4:05.14 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 25 JUL
1994 4:06.60 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 02 AUG
1993 4:15.07 San José, CA 29 MAY
1991 4:15.54 Tokyo (Olympic Stadium) 29 AUG
1987 4:09.10 San José (Estadio Nacional), CRC 27 JUN
1986 4:23.83 Athína (Olympic Stadium) 20 JUL

None of your other examples are prodigies like Cain and Efraimson are they? Nobody thinks too much about an early to mid 20s athlete stalling or regressing a bit.

When the athlete has no injuries and they start going backwards despite training hard warning bells start going off.

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Jonathan Gault wrote:

When it comes to young pros, I'm a believer in giving them a long leash in terms of development. Mary Cain made the Olympic Trials final as a sophomore in college. Alexa Efraimson was 6th at the Olympic Trials as a freshman in college. In a vacuum, those are great signs. Cain's result obviously doesn't seem as impressive given everything she's already accomplished. But it's still impressive, and if I had to guess whether she's better in 2017 than 2016, I'd say better.

As for Efraimson, even though she didn't PR, 2016 was the first time she even made a US final and she finished 6th. So I don't think it's time to worry. Of course, after Cain didn't PR in 2014, I told Robert not to worry because she won World Juniors but he was proved right and she has struggled the last two years.

I also think it depends on what your expectations are. If you're expecting either of these women to become the next Jenny Simpson, it's almost certainly not going to happen because Jenny Simpson has one of the best careers ever by a female US distance runner. But because they ran significantly faster in HS than Simpson, a lot of people will look at their potential and say "they should be making WC finals/contending for medals."

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