Today is Alexa Efraimson's 20th birthday - How good do you think she'll end up being?

Why the surprise? We all know that young athletes who experience early success esp. at hs levels rarely live up to their apparent potential as seniors. More often, the opposite happens.

Sydney McLaughlin might be an exception but that's because she's essentially performing as an elite senior - less rare among sprinting ranks than for MD or LD.

Ask that Cain girl?

I believe that she can still be good and kind of think she will but how she mentally handles the next couple years are big.

From a running stand point I am against these distance runners going pro because it seems likely to fail and I'll explain why in a second. I do totally understand that from a financial view they are ahead money wise.

While the NCAA system is not perfect it does produce pros regularly. Sometimes these pros were absolute studs in HS and sometimes they were not. It's also pretty likely that most athletes in the 4-5 year window of being in College have some injuries, setbacks or something like that and will have seasons here or there that they do not PR. They do however usually still perform well at the conference and national level. So they have some positives working for them. Those that go pro probably have the similar setbacks in that time frame but it's on the national stage, they only ever race against the absolute best and are judged much more on how they do compared to their PR. I believe this is very tough mentally on kids whose life has changed a ton in the last few years and changed in a way that there are very few people that can relate to those changes since so few do it. So 1 setback might turn into not enjoying the sport as much as in the past and then that might lead to another setback or a bad race.... so on and so on.

I do think Alexa is more naturally talented than Cain which might help her. Her setbacks might not end up as big which may mean she can come out of them easier.

At the end of the summer I had the thought that Alexa needed a change of venue to make the next step. She has produced fast times, but is she in a the most professional environment possible for the kind of long term development necessary? If she doesn't make a team she may find herself without a contract when the current one expires

I don't think there's any reason to be worried yet. One second slower over a mile isn't that bad, considering how miles can vary so many different ways. Maybe if we had her splits for each lap. If she ran 4:35 or something I'd be more worried.

Cupen wrote:

Ask that Cain girl?

Did Mary compete at the Manchester race last year?

Don't look too much into her lack of progression in the last year. Care to name this American sweetheart? Should we have crucified Jenny Simpson from 2009-2014?? 4 years of non-improvement.

1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH

PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE

2016 3:58.19 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 27 AUG

2015 3:57.30 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 17 JUL

2014 3:57.22 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 05 JUL

2013 4:00.48 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 19 JUL

2012 4:04.07 Rovereto (Stadio Quercia) 04 SEP

2011 4:03.54 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 22 JUL

2010 4:03.63 New York City (Icahn), NY 12 JUN

2009 3:59.90 Eugene, OR 07 JUN

2008 4:11.36 Luzern 16 JUL

It is still too early to write off Cain. Same with Efraimson.

If Cain has gained ~10 pounds as some have speculated then her power to weight ratio would not be as good as it was 2013 and perhaps she will not improve on those times. Time will tell.

What happened to Allie O. ? She seemed like the next rising star, but being so tiny I hope they have not pushed her too hard too soon.

2011 for Simpson was World gold.

Her negative progression is a bit worrisome. A lot of people don't PR in Olympic years. However, if she shows no improvement this year, I'd definitely be concerned. It is a tendency for people who run fast as teenagers, particularly females, for them to not improve. Contrast with current darling Laura Muir who only ran 4:07 at 20, but improved 10 seconds from her previous year, then the next year ran 4:00. Muir's progression is much more encouraging.

When it comes to young pros, I'm a believer in giving them a long leash in terms of development. Mary Cain made the Olympic Trials final as a sophomore in college. Alexa Efraimson was 6th at the Olympic Trials as a freshman in college. In a vacuum, those are great signs. Cain's result obviously doesn't seem as impressive given everything she's already accomplished. But it's still impressive, and if I had to guess whether she's better in 2017 than 2016, I'd say better.

As for Efraimson, even though she didn't PR, 2016 was the first time she even made a US final and she finished 6th. So I don't think it's time to worry. Of course, after Cain didn't PR in 2014, I told Robert not to worry because she won World Juniors but he was proved right and she has struggled the last two years.

I also think it depends on what your expectations are. If you're expecting either of these women to become the next Jenny Simpson, it's almost certainly not going to happen because Jenny Simpson has one of the best careers ever by a female US distance runner. But because they ran significantly faster in HS than Simpson, a lot of people will look at their potential and say "they should be making WC finals/contending for medals."

I certainly don't think Alexa needs to be worried.

She PRed at 800m in 2016 (2:00.99, PR was 2:01.11).

She admittedly didn't run great at Millrose, dropping from 7th to 9th in the last 200m and only closing in 33.58. She didn't run very well in 2016 either, as she led the chase pack for too long, and was passed by a few runners in the final 200m as she was involved in some physical contact and almost fell.

she also placed 6th in the Trials compared to in 2015 when she didn't even make the final.

another thing (and I didn't know all this stuff, just doing some googling now) is that she got 5th at World Juniors, again in great position with about 200 to go but didn't have anything for the last 100m, and even got beat by Christina Aragon who PRed to get 3rd.

so looks like Alexa has good enough tactics, is usually in a good position, but can't hang in the last 200m. Even at Pre is 2015 in Alexa's 4:03 PR, she got dragged on perfect pace for the whole race and when she tried to move on the outside in the last 200m she got nowhere.

Jonathan Gault wrote:

As for Efraimson, even though she didn't PR, 2016 was the first time she even made a US final and she finished 6th. So I don't think it's time to worry. Of course, after Cain didn't PR in 2014, I told Robert not to worry because she won World Juniors but he was proved right and she has struggled the last two years.

Don't know how that 6th wasn't a DQ

Here is Shannon Rowbury... same deal, but more consistent than Simpson -

1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH

PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE

2016 3:57.78 Zürich (Letzigrund) 01 SEP

2015 3:56.29 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 17 JUL

2014 3:59.49 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 05 JUL

2013 4:01.28 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 19 JUL

2012 4:03.15 Stockholm (Olympiastadion) 17 AUG

2011 4:05.73 London (Crystal Palace) 06 AUG

2010 4:01.30 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 16 JUL

2009 4:00.81 Zürich (Letzigrund) 28 AUG

2008 4:00.33 Paris Saint-Denis 18 JUL

2006 4:12.31 Bloomington, IN 01 JUL

Anyone want to guess on this one?

1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH

PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE

2016 4:03.94 Greenville, SC 04 JUN

2015 4:09.31 Birmingham (Alexander), GBR 07 JUN

2014 4:04.76 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 05 JUL

2013 4:08.49 Birmingham (Alexander), GBR 30 JUN

2013 4:08.49 New York City (Icahn), NY 25 MAY

2012 4:01.59 Roma (Stadio Olimpico) 31 MAY

2011 4:00.06 Bruxelles (Boudewijnstadion) 16 SEP

2010 4:02.40 Lausanne (Pontaise) 08 JUL

2009 4:09.95 Luzern 15 JUL

2008 4:06.93 Luzern 16 JUL

2007 4:17.18 13 MAY

This one is fun -

1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH

PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE

2003 4:03.43 Carson, CA 01 JUN

2002 4:01.02 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 19 JUL

2001 4:04.85 Palo Alto, CA 09 JUN

2000 4:01.01 Sacramento, CA 16 JUL

1999 4:00.35 Sevilla (La Cartuja) 29 AUG

1998 4:02.29 Boston, MA 30 JUN

1997 4:03.42 Indianapolis, IN 15 JUN

1996 4:01.77 Bruxelles 23 AUG

1995 4:05.18 Sacramento, CA 18 JUN

1994 4:02.15 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 02 AUG

1993 4:15.71 01 JAN

1992 4:03.72 New Orleans, LA 28 JUN

1989 4:10.91 Oslo 01 JUL

1988 4:00.46 Indianapolis (University Stadium), IN 23 JUL

1987 4:03.70 San José, CA 27 JUN

1986 4:02.6 01 JAN

1985 4:15.41 01 JAN

1984 4:11.33 22 JUN

1983 4:13.09 01 JAN

1981 4:25.0 01 JAN

1980 4:32.6 01 JAN

Last one -

1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH

PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE

2004 4:09.74 Sacramento, CA 16 JUL

2003 4:01.69 Roma (Stadio Olimpico) 11 JUL

2002 3:59.10 Zürich 16 AUG

2001 4:00.38 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 20 JUL

2000 3:57.40 Oslo (Bislett) 28 JUL

1998 3:58.38 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 08 AUG

1997 4:03.50 Sheffield 29 JUN

1995 4:05.14 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 25 JUL

1994 4:06.60 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 02 AUG

1993 4:15.07 San José, CA 29 MAY

1991 4:15.54 Tokyo (Olympic Stadium) 29 AUG

1987 4:09.10 San José (Estadio Nacional), CRC 27 JUN

1986 4:23.83 Athína (Olympic Stadium) 20 JUL

None of your other examples are prodigies like Cain and Efraimson are they? Nobody thinks too much about an early to mid 20s athlete stalling or regressing a bit.

When the athlete has no injuries and they start going backwards despite training hard warning bells start going off.

Johnny G gets it. Everyone else needs to take a deep breath. Cain shouldn't be written off, and Alexa CERTAINLY shouldn't be.