I think Biden will get there and there's a decent chance he'll roll up a huge win. However, we shouldn't count our chickens before they've hatched:
RCP battleground average polling margins now and as of this date in 2016:
PA: 2020 - Biden +5.6. 2016 - HRC +6.2. Result: Trump +0.7
FL: 2020 - Biden +1.4. 2016 - HRC +4.0. Result: Trump +1.2
WI: 2020 - Biden +6.3. 2016 - HRC +7.0. Result: Trump +0.7
MI: 2020 - Biden +7.2. 2016 - HRC +10.0. Result: Trump +0.3
NC: 2020 - Biden +2.7. 2016 - HRC +2.6. Result: Trump +3.7
AZ: 2020 - Biden +4.0. 2016 - HRC +1.3. Result: Trump +3.5
OH: 2020 - Trump +0.5. 2016 - Trump +0.6. Result: Trump +8.1
GA: 2020 - Biden +1.2. 2016 - Trump +4.6. Result: Trump +5.1
NH: 2020 - Biden +11.0. 2016 - HRC +8.0. Result: HRC +0.3
IA: 2020 - Biden +1.2. 2016 - Trump +3.7. Result: Trump +9.5
NV: 2020 - Biden +5.2. 2016 - HRC +3.7. Result: HRC +2.4
TX: 2020 - Trump +4.4. 2016 - Trump +5.4. Result: Trump +9.0
Last time it as Trump 306 / HRC 232 ( I'm ignoring the faithless electors on both sides). If the exact same shifts happen as last time, Trump would carry most of the battlegrounds (although GA would shift to Biden - Trump only gained 0.5 points in GA, less than Biden's current lead there), leaving it 290/248. Of course, that scenario is ridiculously unlikely but you could definitely argue that Trump is in a better position now than he was in 2016. Questions I have:
1. Have the polling firms made any adjustments for what happened in 2016? They might not have. After all, even though everyone says they got it wrong, they were generally within the margin of error. They might not have changed their workhorse models, considering the models basically got it right. I really don't know and haven't done any research.
2. The polls listed above are as of today's date. Everyone can recall the October/November Surprise email story about HRC. The polls tightened some after that. Would HRC have won had the election occurred in mid October last year?
3. It seems like a lot of undecideds shifted to Trump last time - "lets take a flyer on this businessman" approach. I don't know for certain but I seem to recall that - someone can correct me if it wasn't true. Could it shift the other way this time? Trump does not seem to be doing himself any favors right now (although the same could be said last time, too).
4. Referring to the three questions above, is there a bit of an overreaction on the "Trump can still win" by the media? If they have changed their models to adjust for Trump's "bonus factor" (whatever that might be) and nothing much changes in the polling up to election day, then Biden will cruise to victory. And what if they adjusted their models unnecessarily? What if most of the undecideds shift to Biden and the Trump Fudge Factor is non-existent? There could be a Ike vs. Stevenson style blowout.
5. Finally, how much is GOP ratf**king with regards to voting infringement going to affect things?