Predict who will have best lifetime PR 5K and predict lifetime 5K PR for each.
Predict who will have best lifetime PR 5K and predict lifetime 5K PR for each.
Fisher hands down 12:52
1. Ches
2. McGorty
3. Knight
4. Tiernan
5. Fisher
What are their current PRs?
Too bad the pro XC nationals isn't a week after NCAAs still. Killed the sport.
Tiernan is more of a 10,000 guy. Probably Knight since he is more geared towards 15 &5.
Fisher should be decent but not as talented as Knight.
Ches will vanish like Lawi and Kithuka.
Who's McGorty?
Fatty R. Belt Buckle wrote:
Predict who will have best lifetime PR 5K and predict lifetime 5K PR for each.
Tiernan easily.
12:50 5k
Will likely go under 27:00 for the 10,000 as well.
Fisher might sneak under 13:00, but not much more than that.
Ches will stay at 13:18
Cheserek
Knight
Fisher
McGorty
Tiernan
You should ask, who will have the most competitive success. Tactics and finishing speed, dealing with rounds at WC or Oly Trials or Oly- who will have these tools?
Snowflake wrote:
Tiernan is more of a 10,000 guy. Probably Knight since he is more geared towards 15 &5.
Fisher should be decent but not as talented as Knight.
Ches will vanish like Lawi and Kithuka.
Who's McGorty?
Lol "Lawi vanishing" with a 13:00 5k PR...
Donger wrote:
What are their current PRs?
Too bad the pro XC nationals isn't a week after NCAAs still. Killed the sport.
This is from memory but I think McGorty has gone 13:20, Fisher has gone 13:24, Tiernan 13:20, Knight somewhere in the 13:20s and Ches I am not sure about.
Polar is ation wrote:
You should ask, who will have the most competitive success. Tactics and finishing speed, dealing with rounds at WC or Oly Trials or Oly- who will have these tools?
The only guy on that list who makes WC or The Games is Knight, most likely.
So, this question is, likely, moot.
In terms of times, though, I think probably Fisher has the best potential at 5k, even if that doesn't ever get him on a team. Fisher will run under 13:10 before he's done. The rest of them will be' just another guy who broke 13:20.' All of them insanely talented, but none of them will be world beaters.
Link wrote:
Polar is ation wrote:You should ask, who will have the most competitive success. Tactics and finishing speed, dealing with rounds at WC or Oly Trials or Oly- who will have these tools?
The only guy on that list who makes WC or The Games is Knight, most likely.
So, this question is, likely, moot.
In terms of times, though, I think probably Fisher has the best potential at 5k, even if that doesn't ever get him on a team. Fisher will run under 13:10 before he's done. The rest of them will be' just another guy who broke 13:20.' All of them insanely talented, but none of them will be world beaters.
2 or 3 have already run 13:20 or faster with another 1 or 2 low 13:20s and you really think that no one else will do anything but barely break 13:20? So pretty much everyone of these teens and 21- and 22-year-olds will not improve at all?
Link wrote:
Polar is ation wrote:You should ask, who will have the most competitive success. Tactics and finishing speed, dealing with rounds at WC or Oly Trials or Oly- who will have these tools?
The only guy on that list who makes WC or The Games is Knight, most likely.
So, this question is, likely, moot.
In terms of times, though, I think probably Fisher has the best potential at 5k, even if that doesn't ever get him on a team. Fisher will run under 13:10 before he's done. The rest of them will be' just another guy who broke 13:20.' All of them insanely talented, but none of them will be world beaters.
Pretty sure Tiernan already has competed at the Olympics...
2 or 3?! Try one.
Current PRs
Justyn Knight: 13:27
Sean McGorty: 13:24
Grant Fisher: 13:30
Ches: 13:18
Tiernan: 13:21
And do you have any idea how hard won seconds are at that level?!?
Only Fisher and Ches have an upside in terms of age and endurance - they're the only ones with 1500/mile PRs that promise something better down the road.
I'm a huge McGorty fan, but, to say he will break 13:10 at some point? To do that, he'd need to be down under 3:37 by now - and he's not really close to that.
Tiernan is headed to a future of 10ks and marathons. f
The only one I might be wrong about is Ches - he might get under 13:10, too, but, if he stays a Kenyan citizen, there will be little developmental support for him after his college career is over - he'll be down around 50 or lower on the national lists. I think he needs another two years - minimum - before he can reach his 5k potential, and, given that it's not really high - again, he's not a guy with a 3:35 under his belt - which he would need to be able to sell himself as a future Olympian - he's not going to get much help going forward.
So, yes. Grant will run 13:0.... 6? and everyone else will run between 13:11 and 13:20. Those are stellar times! Maybe, if they're clean, close to the best that can be run. Expecting more from them is not realistic.
You're right, of course. I keep forgetting that Australia is as crappy as Canada at the moment.
Link wrote:
2 or 3?! Try one.
Current PRs
Justyn Knight: 13:27
Sean McGorty: 13:24
Grant Fisher: 13:30
Ches: 13:18
Tiernan: 13:21
And do you have any idea how hard won seconds are at that level?!?
Only Fisher and Ches have an upside in terms of age and endurance - they're the only ones with 1500/mile PRs that promise something better down the road.
I'm a huge McGorty fan, but, to say he will break 13:10 at some point? To do that, he'd need to be down under 3:37 by now - and he's not really close to that.
Tiernan is headed to a future of 10ks and marathons. f
The only one I might be wrong about is Ches - he might get under 13:10, too, but, if he stays a Kenyan citizen, there will be little developmental support for him after his college career is over - he'll be down around 50 or lower on the national lists. I think he needs another two years - minimum - before he can reach his 5k potential, and, given that it's not really high - again, he's not a guy with a 3:35 under his belt - which he would need to be able to sell himself as a future Olympian - he's not going to get much help going forward.
So, yes. Grant will run 13:0.... 6? and everyone else will run between 13:11 and 13:20. Those are stellar times! Maybe, if they're clean, close to the best that can be run. Expecting more from them is not realistic.
Knight ran 3:56.87 mile indoors at age 19.5 yrs.
I think Ches could go 13:00 or faster
McGorty could be a 3:32/13:05 guy
Knight - 13:10
Tiernan - 13:15
e never been a buyer of Fisher's long term success. I just don't see him getting much better than he is currently
Coach bigfoot wrote:
Snowflake wrote:Tiernan is more of a 10,000 guy. Probably Knight since he is more geared towards 15 &5.
Fisher should be decent but not as talented as Knight.
Ches will vanish like Lawi and Kithuka.
Who's McGorty?
Lol "Lawi vanishing" with a 13:00 5k PR...
What has he done since college? Nothing
Lenny Leonard wrote:
I think Ches could go 13:00 or faster
McGorty could be a 3:32/13:05 guy
Knight - 13:10
Tiernan - 13:15
e never been a buyer of Fisher's long term success. I just don't see him getting much better than he is currently
Tiernan has run 13:20 while at Villanova as a full-time student. You don't see him improving more than 5 seconds as a professional, while perhaps with NOP?
Oddly enough, I agree with your opinion on Fisher. I have no reasoning for it, but am frankly shocked that he came in 5th this year.
He is physically unremarkable, and while certainly not a reason to discount his future success, there is a certain 'body type' that succeeds (with outliers).
1. Knight-13:00-13:10 (would be or close to NR)
2. Ches- 13:05-13:10
3. Tiernan- 13:05-13:10 (I think he could actually be best, but doubt he will stick with the 5k long enough)
4. Fisher: 13:15-13:20
5. McGorty: 13:15-13:20
Very negative on the Stanford men, but those are fantastic American times. 13:10 is around top 10-15 for US all time, which is incredible (and rare). Temper your expectations.
For those saying Knight will run 12:50- I'm not saying you're wrong, but realize that would be top 40 ALL TIME.