Marathon prediction

One more question: To run a marathon for a relatively efficient runner (5 flat miler), 138lb. Is a 6 oz shoe OK? I am thinking of running with Scott Race rocker 2.0.

Thanks again.

That is not a ton of shoe - have you run any of your marathon paced runs in them?

I ran my two marathons in the Adidas Adizero Adios Boost. I am 5' 8" and was 142-146 on race day. I have a very long stride, so I heel strike harder than most, so I probably need a little more shoe than most others; but I could not imagine running in a less substantial shoe (and they are 8 ounces in size 19 (although I wear a 12)).

Whatever you decide to run in, get one long/hard workout in in them before race day.

Raysism wrote:

HMI wrote:

I am a mid 40 guy who has some running history but have not been serious running for 4-5 years. I picked up running back about 9 month ago.

Now, I am preparing for NYC marathon and has been running 60-70 miles per week. The best long run I have done (in 70+ degree texas weather) is a 20 miler averaging 6'45" with 2 30 seconds water stop. My 2x3mile pace now is 6'15". With 6 more weeks of training, is 2:50 a realistic goal?

If those are examples of some workouts that you've done, then maybe (25 to 40% chance).

If those are your best workouts, and you basically raced them, then no way.

Are you the say Raysism that's on Deadspin?? Love your work.

verbose wrote:

Raysism wrote:

If those are examples of some workouts that you've done, then maybe (25 to 40% chance).

If those are your best workouts, and you basically raced them, then no way.

Are you the say Raysism that's on Deadspin?? Love your work.

Yes, that's me! Thank you for your support. Not that there's much for me to do over in that dumpster fire, but it was fun a few years ago.

HMI -- just read your more recent posts, and I think you have a better chance than I initially thought. Keep updating this post -- will be interested to see how the next few weeks go.

Thanks. I will definitely keep you guys posted.

Today is my last workout before Chicago this Sunday (Will be treated as a long run instead of a race).

Today's workout: 3 miles warm up with some strides, 8x1000 average 3'30" with 2min recovery, ran a 400 2 min after in 68". 2 miles cool down.

Will do another 10 miler with 4mile MP on Wednesday (instead of the normal 8 miles MP). Hope to run 3:05 for Chicago.

That is a very good 1000s workout that certainly equates to the equivalent of a sub 2:50 marathon state of conditioning, all other things being equal.

I would still love to see you crush one good long marathon pace work out after Chicago but before New York. Not sure if you have time to fit that in or if it will really work with the scheduling.

Have fun in Chicago looks like you're going to get great weather.

Guys.. Just came back from Chicago. Here is the update:

Last week basically did the normal training (shifted 2 hard days from Tue. Thur. to Mon. Wed. ) - Total weekly mileage 72.

The weather was pretty good, 52 when started and finished around 64 (estimate). I started by following the 3:00 pacer for the first 18 or so miles, felt pretty good and decided to up the pace a little bit. Took 2 gels with 2 cups of water right before that. The last 2 miles, I can feel a bit tired, but nothing unbearable.

Finished a few seconds under 2:57. No limping or injury. Walked back to hotel that is about a mile from finish while drank a protein shake and a banana. Took a shower then walked around downtown area with a friend for 40 minutes, then had a meal. Knee was a bit sore after sitting on the plane back for close to 3 hours.

This morning, there are some soreness in muscle, but walking normally. Will take a couple of days easy before getting back to normal training.

Now, feeling pretty good about breaking 2:50 in NYC marathon providing the training for next 4 weeks will go as planned.

Yesterday I ran a 20 miler in 2:14:09 with my Boston Boost 5's. Do you think I should try to Adios (which I love for half marathons and speed work) for the full marathon. I'm 5'8" 142-146 as well.

Thanks....

Nice running. I hope the rest of the recovery goes well for you. Do you have a target for your next big workout day? Or are you going to take it by feel?

Yeah, this is a good sign. Assuming the Chicago marathon doesn't set you back more than you expected, and the weather in NYC is good, you've got well over a 50% chance to break 2:50.

They are really common shoes for the marathon. I plan on wearing them in Boston in April. If you've raced in them before, or at least did one of your longer workouts in them (maybe 13 mile mp run in them), and had no issues, that's what I'd wear.

Of course, your taking shoe advice from a guy who had surgery from plantar fasciitis in May. The Adioses had nothing to do with that though - I do almost every workout in trainers. I only wore the flats in my races (including a half marathon run at mp). But I thought full disclosure was appropriate.

HMI, you're looking good - I'm pulling for you. And thanks for the updates - I'm enjoying this thread.

More update.. hope it is not too much.

Yesterday (The day after Chicago), I jogged 3 miles, felt IT bend is a bit tight and some muscle soreness, so took it really easy - about 8'15" pace.

Today after work, I tried to do another 3 mile easy, but felt my legs are almost good to go, so I just went and see what I can do. I end up with 5 miles averaging 7'02" in 88 degree weather. I think I am ready to do my track workout on Thursday and get back to normal training after that.

The race is this weekend and I have had some pain around outside of left knee in the past couple of weeks, so the mileage has been low, but I did most my key workout (except the long run).

Yesterday, I did my last track workout 5x1k averaging 3'23" with 2'15" recovery. I feel like ready if I can hold myself together this Sunday. What do you guys think for me to attack a sub 2"50? The weather should be pretty good.

That's a great 5k pace workout off of marathon training for someone shooting for sub 2:50. Assuming that the IT band issues don't derail you during the race - and they shouldn't (even if you feel the discomfort on race day, you should be able to push through) - your fitness indicates sub 2:50 to be a very reasonable goal.

Thanks for the confirmation - I will definitely shoot for sub 2:50.

Will report back after the race.

Finally found this thread back...

Here is the update: The race started well - was running at target pace and get to half way mark in mid 1:24. The trouble started around mile 16, right after cross queensboro bridge - felt some tightness on my injured leg, so I started to use right leg a bit more, which caused it to start cramp around mile 16 and get much worse at mile 18.

By then, I could not run anything faster than 7'20 = 7'30" pace without a cramp on my hamstring. So, after stopped 3 times to stretch, I limped the rest of the race in 2:59. Guess it is not a good idea to race a marathon with even a minor injury. But, at least I know my fitness is there for a sub 2:50. Will rest up for my next race, which is a half marathon in March.

Thanks guys for all the information and support.