I grew up in a rural, non-mountainous part of western New York State. My high school's record was in the 4:40's when I graduated in 2002. 4:4x is a lot better than 5:00, I know, but just sayin' that it could merely be a rural thing.
HardLoper wrote:
Steven Employment Units wrote:Where are these schools with school records over 5? WTH?!
Probably the South or ghettos
No troll. This years BolderBoulder-held on memorial a couple weeks after the Colorado State High School Track Meet.10K25 sixteen year olds broke 40 minutes39 seventeen year olds broke 40 minutes27 eighteen year olds broke 40 minutes.DId every hard core Colorado High Schooler run that day-no, but a lot of them did. Perhaps a 40 minute 10 K isn't quite comparable to a 5 min mile, but it's in the ballpark.In this state of 5 Million people, I stand by my statement that only a couple hundred will break 5 minutes./
I hope this is a troll wrote:
High Country wrote:Go to a cross country meet in September-big invitational=5K In suburban Denver, there will be a dozen runners clustered around 16 minutes-maybe 25 under 17 minutes. 50 under 18 minutes-100 between 18 and 20 and 200 over 20 minutes.
Those sub 17 minute kids are your 5 minute milers. Those 18 minute kids are 5:30s.
Extrapolate throughout the state-there are a couple hundred kids-maybe.. 50 states-some are bigger than Colorado, some are smaller but my method give 1000 nationwide. Probably a little low, but not by a factor of 10. Split the difference-5000.
My high school PR-4:56. In Gunnison, CO at 7500 feet.
Your conversion of an xc 5k to a track mile is horribly off. For a faster xc course with a couple decent hills 4:30=16:25, 5:00=18:00, 5:30=19:45. And your way of figuring out how many sub 5 milers there are is way off. Kids who go sub 18:30 are generally capable of going sub 5 in track- in fact, I have yet to meet a high school runner who runs year round who has gone sub 18 that failed to break 5 later in their high school career. I am in a solid running area, it generally takes sub 4:15 or even faster to win states and in my COUNTY that has 15-30 schools, there are a couple hundred guys that go sub 5 every year. In my state there are probably a couple thousand and I live in a medium sized state. So it would definitely be up in the 30-40 thousand range if you factor in the states that are horrible.
Lets head to New Jersey for the Spring Lake 5-another massive spring race-10,000 plus entrants-300 boys age 15-19
Age 15-19--28 boys broke 35 minutes on the 5 mile course. That's a generous conversion to a 5 minute mile.
A couple thousand don't go sub 5 in New Jersey or Colorado.
High Country wrote:
Lets head to New Jersey for the Spring Lake 5-another massive spring race-10,000 plus entrants-300 boys age 15-19
Age 15-19--28 boys broke 35 minutes on the 5 mile course. That's a generous conversion to a 5 minute mile.
A couple thousand don't go sub 5 in New Jersey or Colorado.
Lol the state I was actually talking about in my previous post is New Jersey so now I know for sure how wrong you are. Mo high school xc and track athletes are going to be going to a 5 mile run and killing themselves to run a fast time when they're running high school meets in spring and a 5 mile run isn't even close to a mile so your conversion is irrelevant. Your assumption that teenagers running in a 5 mile road race accurately represents what high schoolers could run in a mile is nonsensical- actual high school meets represent what high schoolers can run. Athletic.net has nearly 1,000 NJ males sub 5 (http://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/Division/Event.aspx?DivID=72277&Event=52&page=9) but there are definitely many more as they don't report numerous large meets- it's got to be up in the 1500-2500 range. From my school alone there are a handful of kids who broke 5 in big meets and don't have it on athletic.net and there are significant meets that I don't see either.
You know, it's not hard to use Milesplit to get a count. In New Jersey this past spring, 1,000 runners were 4:53 or under in the 1600. MIlesplit stops the rankings after 1,000 names, so you can add 'x' more for 4:53-4:59. That has to be at least another 200 runners based on the distribution of times in the rankings.
In Colorado, 542 boys were under 5 in spring season.
So, that's at least 1,700 boys under 5 in NJ and Colorado alone.
P.S. Using the Spring Lake 5 as a sample is stupid. That race is run at the end of May. Very few high school runners are going to enter a five-mile road race in the heart of track season unless it's just as a fun training run.
Oh, and NJ had twenty girls under 5. Colorado had three.
toofast7 wrote:
You know, it's not hard to use Milesplit to get a count. In New Jersey this past spring, 1,000 runners were 4:53 or under in the 1600. MIlesplit stops the rankings after 1,000 names, so you can add 'x' more for 4:53-4:59. That has to be at least another 200 runners based on the distribution of times in the rankings.
In Colorado, 542 boys were under 5 in spring season.
So, that's at least 1,700 boys under 5 in NJ and Colorado alone.
P.S. Using the Spring Lake 5 as a sample is stupid. That race is run at the end of May. Very few high school runners are going to enter a five-mile road race in the heart of track season unless it's just as a fun training run.
Thank you. There are also a lot of times that aren't posted on milesplit so 1,200 is a very conservative estimate. Many strong running schools in NJ have several JV guys that go sub 5 in dual meets but they never get to run sub 5 in a meet that milesplit or athlinks cover because they don't run in the late season meets. And you summed up why a 5 mile road race doesn't matter perfectly so thank you for bringing reason to this discussion.
I grew up in the wrong area. My 4:51 HS best didn't get me very far!
Bottom line: it's not that hard for a HS boy to break 5 minutes. What most adult road racers find impossible is simple for a decent HS runner.
High Country wrote:
Go to a cross country meet in September-big invitational=5K In suburban Denver, there will be a dozen runners clustered around 16 minutes-maybe 25 under 17 minutes. 50 under 18 minutes-100 between 18 and 20 and 200 over 20 minutes.
Those sub 17 minute kids are your 5 minute milers. Those 18 minute kids are 5:30s.
Extrapolate throughout the state-there are a couple hundred kids-maybe.. 50 states-some are bigger than Colorado, some are smaller but my method give 1000 nationwide. Probably a little low, but not by a factor of 10. Split the difference-5000.
My high school PR-4:56. In Gunnison, CO at 7500 feet.
No. I ran under 18 once in high school. I ran a 4:46 mile and a 2:04 800. I was more of a middle distance guy, but 5ks are not comparable at all
High Country, according to athletic.net, 2016 there were 312 sub-4:57.50 1600 metres boys. That's close to a 5 minute mile.
I only need to be in sub-5:45 on mile condition to race sub-40 10Ks. You stated 5 minute mile was roughly equal to a 40 minute 10K.
oh child wrote:
High Country wrote:Go to a cross country meet in September-big invitational=5K In suburban Denver, there will be a dozen runners clustered around 16 minutes-maybe 25 under 17 minutes. 50 under 18 minutes-100 between 18 and 20 and 200 over 20 minutes.
Those sub 17 minute kids are your 5 minute milers. Those 18 minute kids are 5:30s.
Extrapolate throughout the state-there are a couple hundred kids-maybe.. 50 states-some are bigger than Colorado, some are smaller but my method give 1000 nationwide. Probably a little low, but not by a factor of 10. Split the difference-5000.
My high school PR-4:56. In Gunnison, CO at 7500 feet.
No. I ran under 18 once in high school. I ran a 4:46 mile and a 2:04 800. I was more of a middle distance guy, but 5ks are not comparable at all
Agreed. 4/8 guys who can drop a sub 5 mile but can't handle xc at all are very common--I've worked with plenty of athletes that could go 52/1:59/4:50, but would be hard-pressed to break 18 over 5k or 10:40 over 3200. Furthermore, most high school boys--especially underclassmen--are very undertrained aerobically, and at age 14/15, even the future 16/32 guys will have stronger performances in shorter distances than 5k. I'd say that pretty much every underclassman guy running sub 18:30 in fall XC should be able to run sub 5 on the track that spring.
Kaneland?