19 Year old Japanese Guy Runs 2:11:34 for the Marathon, What Do You Think a 19 Year Old American Could Do?

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  • wejo
    cofounder
    3 years ago 02/27/2016 9:56pm CST
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    The Tokyo Marathon was a good one. One of the more unique things about Tokyo is the slew of Japanese guys in the race and a ton of them going out at 2:07 pace. A bunch (probably 30+) did that today for the first 5k. None of them made it home that fast as the top Japanese guy today was Yuki Takamiya in 8th in 2:10:57.

    In 10th place was 19 year old Japanese Yuta Shimoda in 2:11:34 (Results here: http://www.letsrun.com/news/2016/02/2016-tokyo-marathon-results/ ). He was totally pumped. He was smiling and pumping to the crowd before the finish. According to Brett Larner http://japanrunningnews.blogspot.com/2016/01/tokyo-marathon-elite-field.html Shimoda was the fastest Japanese 18 year old half marathoner with a 1:02:22.

    So that begs the question we get all the collegian freshman in the US and train them for the marathon, what do you think they run?

    We should have another thread, what happens if we get a fast course and get all the American to go out at 2:06 pace.
  • Kruppe
    3 years ago 02/27/2016 10:01pm CST
    re: wejo
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    Let us see where Mr. Shimoda stands 5 years from now before we anoint him or have other youngsters follow in his footsteps.
  • newname
    3 years ago 02/27/2016 10:02pm CST
    re: wejo
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    Kirk Pfeffer did run 2:17:XX for the AJR.

    Since we have seen people with 13:27 ability (or slower) for 5k run 2:11:XX many people thought that Ritz could have done it as a 19 year-old when he ran 13:27 as a college freshman and placed 24th in the Long Race at WCCC in 2002. But we know now that that would have been unlikely.
  • The Overexplainer
    3 years ago 02/27/2016 10:09pm CST
    re: wejo
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    "We should have another thread, what happens if we get a fast course and get all the American to go out at 2:06 pace."

    They would blow up and run 2:12-2:13-2:14 or worse.

    I don't really view going through 5k at 2:07 as "going out at 2:07 pace".

    Out of the 30 that you say went out at 2:07 pace, 4 of them ran that. 2 of them ran pretty close, and the 24 of them went out too fast.
  • SMiLE
    registered
    3 years ago 02/27/2016 10:17pm CST
    re: wejo
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    Meb's coach Bob Larsen stated in an interview that he thought Ryan Hall could have run close to 2:10:xx while in high school.

    “He was essentially a 4:00 miler in high school and the Mt. Sac cross country course record holder. Irv sent me his workouts. They were at a very high level. I think he could have run close to a 2:10 (marathon) in high school. I had an athlete, Steve Ortiz, who ran 2:13 as a college junior, and Ryan was doing harder workouts in high school. And when he was at Stanford they ran hard, because of all the talent that was there."

    http://tonireavis.com/2015/03/17/big-3-down-to-1/
  • What will they try next?
    3 years ago 02/27/2016 10:18pm CST
    re: The Overexplainer
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    The 5k split for the marathon is equivalent to the 1185m point in a 10000m race.

    If you are "going out at" X:XX pace in a marathon I think you need to make it to the half-marathon point at that pace. Otherwise you are just going out too fast for a short part of the race. The first 6 (assuming that all of the top-6 were in that leading group at 5k) went out at 2:07 and succeeded, the other 24 went out too fast.
  • jjjjj
    3 years ago 02/27/2016 10:27pm CST
    re: Kruppe
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    In five years, we'll say, let us see him in five years.
  • The Animal Within
    3 years ago 02/27/2016 10:31pm CST
    re: smile
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    smile wrote:

    Meb's coach Bob Larsen stated in an interview that he thought Ryan Hall could have run close to 2:10:xx while in high school.

    “He was essentially a 4:00 miler in high school and the Mt. Sac cross country course record holder. Irv sent me his workouts. They were at a very high level. I think he could have run close to a 2:10 (marathon) in high school. I had an athlete, Steve Ortiz, who ran 2:13 as a college junior, and Ryan was doing harder workouts in high school. And when he was at Stanford they ran hard, because of all the talent that was there."

    http://tonireavis.com/2015/03/17/big-3-down-to-1/

    Never. No way.

    Hall was a wash in college out on the farm until his Junior year.
  • TrackCoach
    registered
    3 years ago 02/27/2016 11:08pm CST
    re: wejo
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    Perhaps Gerry could have.
  • wejo
    cofounder
    3 years ago 02/27/2016 11:14pm CST
    re: The Overexplainer
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    The Overexplainer wrote:

    "We should have another thread, what happens if we get a fast course and get all the American to go out at 2:06 pace."

    They would blow up and run 2:12-2:13-2:14 or worse.

    I don't really view going through 5k at 2:07 as "going out at 2:07 pace".

    Out of the 30 that you say went out at 2:07 pace, 4 of them ran that. 2 of them ran pretty close, and the 24 of them went out too fast.

    The 15 flat first 5k is not smart for most of them. I'm not trying to say that at all, but it is a different mentality.

    Ryan Hall was our Kenyan. He trained like a Kenyan in high school and I think he could have probably run close to 2:11.
  • Doing it Right
    3 years ago 02/27/2016 11:24pm CST
    re: wejo
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    That was a fun marathon to watch. The camera work was good and it was a fast, competitive race.
  • robert678
    3 years ago 02/27/2016 11:40pm CST
    re: wejo
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    Best man would probably be Grant Fisher or Drew Hunter for it. I'd say they could run 2:25 right now, but 2:18 with a year's training first due to their lower mileage.

    Best woman would probably be Allie Ostrander or Anna Rohrer. Not sure what time tho.
  • The Good The Bad and the Ugali
    3 years ago 02/28/2016 12:43am CST
    re: robert678
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    The one thing we know about the Japanese is that they flood the the results with kids and young guys running 13:50's, 1:03's and 2:10+, but hit a massive brick wall at 2:07-08. They are apparently unwilling to do either the PEDs or the individualized, sensible training it takes to go past that. I get the impression is that they run pro for corporate Ekiden teams rather than training groups as in the U.S. or even Kenya, which does not foster the individualistic spirit it takes to go beyond the herd.

    The guy training with NOP might be the guy who breaks through that (as he has somewhat in the 5K).
  • submissve male secretary
    3 years ago 02/28/2016 1:15am CST
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    Great to see Abel Kirui back in shape. Always been one of my favourite marathoners and could do some big things later in the year. It's a shame he's left it too late for the Olympic team because he's one of the best championship racers of all time.
  • coach X
    3 years ago 02/28/2016 2:31am CST
    re: The Good The Bad and the Ugali
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    The Good The Bad and the Ugali wrote:

    The one thing we know about the Japanese is that they flood the the results with kids and young guys running 13:50's, 1:03's and 2:10+, but hit a massive brick wall at 2:07-08. They are apparently unwilling to do either the PEDs

    This is consistent with the hypothesis that EPO makes an elite runner about 5 minutes faster.
  • el segundo
    registered
    3 years ago 02/28/2016 7:25am CST
    re: Doing it Right
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    Doing it Right wrote:

    That was a fun marathon to watch. The camera work was good and it was a fast, competitive race.

    Other televised marathons (or any track/athletics for that matter) could learn something from this coverage. Course was marked well to TV too it seemed.
  • Edward Teach
    registered
    3 years ago 02/28/2016 7:26am CST
    re: wejo
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    There is no incentive for a top American 19 year old to run a marathon, in fact probably disincentive to do so. Top runners are on scholarship in the Ncaa, competing in distances 10k and down. A kid who could break 2:12 isn't going to be redshirted, he's going to be raced and trained to peak for 10k or below. Now the NAIA has the marathon, but usually their scholarship athletes are a bit below the NCAA and top NAIA guys usually stick to the 10k because they'll try to double for points at nationals. What do we think Shimoda could run for the xc 8k?
  • Alvin Lee and 10 Years After
    3 years ago 02/28/2016 7:36am CST
    re: newname
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    Paul Gompers ran 2:15 at age 19 and before that he was kind of off the radar before that. Pfeffer was only 21 when he ran 2:11 at NYC.
  • robert678
    3 years ago 02/28/2016 7:57am CST
    re: Edward Teach
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    Edward Teach wrote:

    There is no incentive for a top American 19 year old to run a marathon, in fact probably disincentive to do so. Top runners are on scholarship in the Ncaa, competing in distances 10k and down. A kid who could break 2:12 isn't going to be redshirted, he's going to be raced and trained to peak for 10k or below. Now the NAIA has the marathon, but usually their scholarship athletes are a bit below the NCAA and top NAIA guys usually stick to the 10k because they'll try to double for points at nationals. What do we think Shimoda could run for the xc 8k?

    Um, Alana Hadley? lol
  • kjv
    3 years ago 02/28/2016 8:07am CST
    re: robert678
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    Obviously this Japanese kid is no Ryan Hall.

    To answer your question, it would depend on what type of talent we get to train for the marathon. I coached DI college and I thought I could get some freshman guys to the Olympic Trials Standard, but I didn't get faster than 9:40 for 3200m guys coming from high school.