I was reading a mailbag on Deadspin recently and one of the questions was this:
"How many miles would an elite distance runner have to run before you (or an average person) could beat them in a mile race? So, for example, an ultramarathoner runs 100 miles (world record is apparently 12 hours and 27 minutes), and as soon as he/she crosses the finish line, he continues to run and you race him/her for one mile. What’s the break-even point? I say it’s probably less than 200 miles, but not much."
http://adequateman.deadspin.com/what-do-i-do-with-my-grandpa-s-old-nazi-crap-1734776484
I thought this was an intriguing question ripe for the experts on the LRC message boards. Since the original query is vague, I'm going to make it more specific.
How many miles would Mo Farah have to run consecutively for you to beat him in a mile (assume all of Farah's miles have to be at 7:00/mile pace or faster)?
Obviously everyone will have a different answer, but I'd like to hear what people think. How many miles until he could no longer break 4:00? 5:00? 6:00?
How many miles would Mo Farah have to run consecutively for you to beat him in a mile?
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I currently run about a 5:25 mile. I think Mo could probably run a 100-mile race at 7:00 and beat that.
So... maybe 125 miles? -
I think this is an awesome question.
Glad I got a quick reply because I think this is important.
What pace would be a detriment to his mile speed?
I'm sure he'd rather run 6:15 pace for 20+ miles then run a mile, then run 8:00 pace. Not only the extra time spent moving, but also the muscle tuning that happens during a run.
For example, he may be able to run a 4:20 after a 5:00 pace half marathon, but not after a 7:00 half marathon. Think about your own long runs, and when your most able to "finish it off". They're usually up-tempo to begin with. -
Tone wrote:
I'm sure he'd rather run 6:15 pace for 20+ miles then run a mile, then run 8:00 pace. Not only the extra time spent moving, but also the muscle tuning that happens during a run.
Grammar matters:
"I'm sure he'd rather run 6:15 pace for 20+ miles and race a mile, than run 8:00 pace. Not only the extra time spent moving, but also the muscle tuning that happens during a run. -
At 5:15ish I think I have Mo after 50 miles. I would also crush him at any miles in a game of 1 on 1 basketball.
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1/4 mile flat out for Mo and I'd smoke him over the next mile.
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Hmm. I think Farah would have to run enough miles that he hurts himself and can no longer run.
I'm an out of shape power/speed guy. -
Let's make speculative guesses based on data points that don't exist - classic rampant liberalism thinking.
I could beat Farah at a mile after he finished a hard half marathon. Heck, a hard 10,000m. Hold up... what's really in the tank after a near-or-sub 13 minute 5,000m...?
Rupp can put in a helluva workout that ends with a sub four minute mile but that's well after (hours?) an ARi mile attempt... -
TO THE IOP__
Is this a simple question :
How many miles can Mo Farah run at my PR Pace?
Or is this a complex question about Farahs ability to end a run at a per mile pace faster than your mile PR
Farah would have to run X number of miles to deplete himself so much that he could not run a final mile at my mile PR pace? Farah could run a maximum of X miles at a pace of his choice before he no longer could tack on a closing mile at my mile PR pace of 4;47?
Id est- Farah could run 30 miles at an 8 minute pace before he was unable to close in 4:47 (my mile PR pace)?
closing
thanks -
simpliry the question wrote:
TO THE IOP__
Is this a simple question :
How many miles can Mo Farah run at my PR Pace?
Or is this a complex question about Farahs ability to end a run at a per mile pace faster than your mile PR
Farah would have to run X number of miles to deplete himself so much that he could not run a final mile at my mile PR pace? Farah could run a maximum of X miles at a pace of his choice before he no longer could tack on a closing mile at my mile PR pace of 4;47?
Id est- Farah could run 30 miles at an 8 minute pace before he was unable to close in 4:47 (my mile PR pace)?
closing
thanks
I thought I was pretty clear in my explanation, but it's the latter situation. If you think the answer is 30 miles, that means you think he could run miles 1-30 at 7:00/mile pace but he can't run mile 31 faster than 4:47. -
from the link
How many miles would an elite distance runner have to run before you (or an average person) could beat them in a mile race? So, for example, an ultramarathoner runs 100 miles (world record is apparently 12 hours and 27 minutes), and as soon as he/she crosses the finish line, he continues to run and you race him/her for one mile. What’s the break-even point? I say it’s probably less than 200 miles, but not much.
According to Wikipedia, the outdoor road ultramarathon world record is 11 hours and 46 minutes, set by Yiannis Kouros of Greece back in 1984. That’s just over seven minutes a mile. Given that distance runners can run the average mile a LOT faster than that, ultramarathoners must really tail off toward the end, when fatigue has set in and they’ve got shit running down their legs and they’re hallucinating a talking cactus over on the side of the road. I say you could beat them with fresh legs after about 95 miles or so. I’m spiking their Gatorade goo with Ex-Lax just to work the odds in my favor, -
I've got a better question, how far could Eliud Kipchoge run at 2:05 marathon pace? He runs ~2:05 every time and he's never tired afterward. I think he could keep going at least to 50k at the same pace easy. That would be a sub 2:30.
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Jon, this is an interesting question, I like it.
I think something that has to be considered is how jarring it is to go from a slow even pace to an all-out mile race without stopping. If you gave Farah 5-minutes to stop and do some drills/strides, it'd make a big difference, but without stopping even an elite is going to feel awkward. That said, he wouldn't be breaking the rules by speeding up before the all-out mile, so if he was going to race you on his 31st mile, he could run his 29th and 30th miles a bit faster to get warmed up and ready to crank it down.
I started to type up some answers, but really they were just wild guess. How long it takes him before he can't break 4:00 and 5:00 ... somewhere in the 20-50 range I would guess for both of them.
As far as 6:00 pace, I honestly don't think the difference between when he could no longer run his next mile at 7:00 pace is that much different than when he can't run his next mile in 6:00 pace. When you hit the wall and are completed depleted, you go from running to crawling pretty quickly. -
4:00 - Basically his 3K pace, I'd believe he could still run that after 6 miles of relaxed running
4:10 - Just slower than 5K pace, I'd guess he could go 8 miles relaxed and then cap it off with a sub 4:10
4:20 - 10K Pace. I'd put the over/under at 15 miles
4:30 - Half Marathon Pace. He should be able to do one of these after maybe 28-30 miles right? Assuming he is comfortable being on his feet for close to 3 hours?
4:40 - Probably between 30-33 miles
4:50 - Marathon pace. I'd say he could 35-40 miles at 5:50-6:20 pace and then rail off a 4:50.
Anything over that, and we're talking about him finishing off a 4+ hour run with a mile in the 5:00-6:00 range. -
It would be so many miles that it's ridiculous to think about. Even when Mo was crashing after his 2:08 he would still have been significantly faster than my mile PR of 5:26, which I can't even run now.
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Lenny Leonard wrote:
4:00 - Basically his 3K pace, I'd believe he could still run that after 6 miles of relaxed running
4:10 - Just slower than 5K pace, I'd guess he could go 8 miles relaxed and then cap it off with a sub 4:10
4:20 - 10K Pace. I'd put the over/under at 15 miles
4:30 - Half Marathon Pace. He should be able to do one of these after maybe 28-30 miles right? Assuming he is comfortable being on his feet for close to 3 hours?
4:40 - Probably between 30-33 miles
4:50 - Marathon pace. I'd say he could 35-40 miles at 5:50-6:20 pace and then rail off a 4:50.
Anything over that, and we're talking about him finishing off a 4+ hour run with a mile in the 5:00-6:00 range.
I kind of agree with this. What would his fastest mile be immediately after a full out race at different distances: 400 meter and up? You start your race with him as he crosses the finish line. -
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Bad Wigins wrote:
I've got a better question, how far could Eliud Kipchoge run at 2:05 marathon pace? He runs ~2:05 every time and he's never tired afterward. I think he could keep going at least to 50k at the same pace easy. That would be a sub 2:30.
It's highly unlikely that he could run another 8k at the same pace - that would imply that he's consistently misjudging his pace over the marathon. -
What about changing the parameters to the end of a race?
I could not beat mo if I started racing him when he is at 3400m in a 5k. Maybe at 8400 in a 10k and definitely at 12 miles in a half marathon. -
Just reading the headline I was thinking of a different question. I have no way to produce a reasonable guess to your question, so I changed it. How many times consecutively would he have to run your mile PR before you could beat him?
For example, I think if he was running a 2 mile and had to do the first in 4:00, it would be an absolute grudge match in the second mile against a 4:00 minute miler. I think he could take down your average 4:00 miler in that scenario. So it might have to be 3600m (so 2k before you race him).
For a 4:20 miler, that's more like 12.5k in my opinion. You hop in just before 11k.
And so on...