here is EXACTLY how many miles per week need for EVERY 5k time possible

a thread to end them all wrote:

Hey wrote:

So anyone running 80 MPW can run 14 flat? Yea right

I should have put it differently. If you're EVER going to run 14:00, you can do it on 80 mpw. If you can't do it on consistent seasons at that mileage (no major injuries), your problem is talent, not mileage.

so a guy who has to go to the well and run 150 mpw to break 14, is just not talented enough to break 14. Yep. He shouldn't have run that much. He just wasn't talented enough. Think of all the tv he could have watched. Its linear too, so someone running 100 mpw can break 13, never mind that that is one of the most astounding feats of athleticism and 100 miles would be a down week for most sub 13 runners. All linear.

Fat Boy wrote:

Here we go again, back to the LSD days. There is absolutely no relationship between mileage and time. It's the quality of the work that matters. As a matter of fact, most runners would be well served by cutting back their mileage in favor of a few interval sessions on the track.

Uh oh- shades of Runner's World in the early 80's- run less, run faster.

Doesn't work.

I grew up in the 70's- there were guys doing LSD in addition to the quality work.

High mileage makes you a better runner.

runn wrote:

Uh oh- shades of Runner's World in the early 80's- run less, run faster.

Doesn't work.

I grew up in the 70's- there were guys doing LSD in addition to the quality work.

High mileage makes you a better runner.

No, doing lots of aerobic quality makes you a better runner more than LSD does. It does work.

a thread to end them all wrote:

Finally, a thread to answer them all.

Feel free to debate the numbers.

All numbers assuming average talent and a childhood not spent exclusively playing video games.

20:00 - 3.1 mpw

19:00 - 3.1 mpw

18:00 - 3.1 mpw

17:00 - 3.1 mpw

16:00 - 3.1 mpw

15:00 - 3.1 mpw

14:00 - 3.1 mpw

20:00 5k can be ran by average talent etc on exactly 3.1 miles per week.

Go back to the drawing board.

Honestly, this is Letsrun. Everyone should be smarter than this. How many miles per week do you need to run a 14:00 5k? Anything more than 3.1 and you're doing it wrong.

Now, how many training miles per week you need. Beats me. It's probably different for everyone.

a thread to end all threads wrote:

They WILL break 20:00 with 10mpw of smart training. And all of the other times I've listed, if the training is there and they have what I'd call semi-decent talent. (If you can't make these times on those miles, you do NOT have talent for running and aren't in the conversation.)

For how many years will they have to run 10mpw to do break 20?

I was doing considerably more than 10mpw for several years and I couldn't get near 20:00. I also freely admit that I have no talent.

No, not right. I ran 19 minutes and change off of no training at all as an 11 year old. I had very little talent, as my PR only got down to 15:36 in college off of 70-80 mpw. Your one-dimensional concept is WAY too simplistic.

I scraped running log data of some online logs a while back and just looked into this question of how does average MPW correlate with 5k race time.

In my database have about 8000+ 5k race results where I also have the prior 28 days of training for each athlete. The distribution of 5k times are as follows:

14:00-14:30 - 13 observations / race results

14:30-15:00 - 108 observations

15:00-15:30 - 288 observations

15:30-16:00 - 512 observations

16:00-16:30 - 619 observations

I also have the results for slower times but dont feel like writing it all out. For each of the above race time groups, I calculated the average mpw the athlete ran during the previous 28 days leading up to the race.

For 14:00-14:30 times, people ran on average 63 miles per week in the previous 28 days. In other words, in the 28 days leading up to their 5k races athletes who ran between 14:00 and 14:30 for the 5k, ran approximately 252 miles on average. Note the average here is calculated for a very small sample of 13 race results/athletes. Also this is for the 28 days leading up to the race, which quite possibly is the athletes MPW during racing season/tapering and not base building. I'd have to dig into each athlete more to confirm this.

For 14:30 -15:00 guys, they ran on average 65.1 miles per week.

For 15:00-15:30 guys, they ran on average 65.9 miles per week.

For 15:30-16:00 guys, they ran on average 59.0 miles per week.

For 16:00-16:30 guys, they ran on average 53.4 miles per week.

This trend of lower miles per week continues as the times decrease. So what can we conclude after this real rough and preliminary analysis?

1) Increasing MPW does on average lower athletes 5k times until they're running in the 15:30 range.

2) Athletes who can run between 14:00 and 15:30 on average tend to run about the same MPW. Or in other words increasing MPW does not appear to lower 5k times after 15:30 and does not explain the difference between someone running 14:30 and someone running 15:30.

Consider this.... wrote:

No, not right. I ran 19 minutes and change off of no training at all as an 11 year old. I had very little talent, as my PR only got down to 15:36 in college off of 70-80 mpw. Your one-dimensional concept is WAY too simplistic.

So you had very little talent because you only got to 15:36 off of 70-80mpw? You were probably overtraining.

Whether you are right or not is just re-enforces the fact that there is a lot more to it than the mileage.

runn wrote:

Fat Boy wrote:

Here we go again, back to the LSD days. There is absolutely no relationship between mileage and time. It's the quality of the work that matters. As a matter of fact, most runners would be well served by cutting back their mileage in favor of a few interval sessions on the track.

Uh oh- shades of Runner's World in the early 80's- run less, run faster.

Doesn't work.

I grew up in the 70's- there were guys doing LSD in addition to the quality work.

High mileage makes you a better runner.

I love how these debates always frame this as either-or.

It's my understanding (which is admittedly not that important especially on this board) that both quantity and quality matter. The best runners both running a lot and running fast. Your average runner just probably isn't going to be able to do that without getting hurt or overtrained, which is where individual adjustments come in.

Surprisingly this fits pretty well for me.

In high school I ran 30-40 miles and my all time best was about 17:30

and just recently coming back from injury I have been running about 15-20 miles a week and ran 19:20.

Ill have to check my logs and see how much I was running for 20:00 and 18:00.

a thread to end them all wrote:

Feel free to debate the numbers.

Having run 80 mpw, I'll have to debate the numbers :)

Okay, I get that this is LetsRun and you may not yet be aware that women are people too. However, I've also known males to hit 80 mpw and not come near 14 flat, and that was with quality training.

txRUNNERgirl wrote:

a thread to end them all wrote:

Feel free to debate the numbers.

Having run 80 mpw, I'll have to debate the numbers :)

Okay, I get that this is LetsRun and you may not yet be aware that women are people too. However, I've also known males to hit 80 mpw and not come near 14 flat, and that was with quality training.

If your male, run 80+ miles of week with quality you should run at least sub 14:30. Otherwise take up golf.

My 5k PR is 21 flat, running 80mpw.

I ran 19:47 off of an avg of 1hour running a week, sometimes 1h 30min total. Usually 30min track session on tues, and up to 1 hour 'long' run on friday. 180lb, 5'8

xjx wrote:

a thread to end them all wrote:

In my experience, most people running these miles can make the times I've listed, but few people can make it to the next threshold without upping the miles as indicated.

That makes no sense. If 20mpw works to get to a certain time, then it will work to get to other times.

Just no.

MoreAccurate wrote:

For average talent (male)...

20:00 - 40 mpw

19:00 - 45 mpw

18:00 - 50 mpw

17:00 - 60 mpw

16:00 - 70 mpw

15:00 - 80 mpw

14:00 - 90 mpw

You must know people with very little talent.

I made it to 16:50 without a single week over 40 mpw ever.

TannerD22 wrote:

I ran a 17:30 this past season off of 30 mpw so I dont believe that to be true

Was that your highest ever mileage?

Standard Issue Human wrote:

FWIW my results have largely tracked your model, and I'm a pretty average runner.

Most runners have no insight into where they stand vis a vis "average."

But I am glad to hear that my highly accurate model worked for a true average runner! It works!