NTN and Smoky Hill

What is ntn?

After you tell me, go back to dyestat.

ntn = Nike Team Nationals

Thanks

Get used to it. rankings are arbitrary-sometimes it works in your favor, sometimes it doesn't. The only way you can win this is to prove your point in a head-to-head contest.

i hadn't really heard anything about katelyn running again, she didn't run states and she wasn't exactly undefeated before her injury maybe she's doing great and ready to repeat as footlocker champ but i doubt the selection committee is aware of that since i dont think there is any evidence of that

if it makes you feel any better bethlehem, ny the team that beat smoky hill at great american (besides saratoga of course) will probably not be attending ntn either. if smoky hill deserves a trip then they definitely do. but currently i think they are ranked like 6th in the northeast region so they probably aren't going anywhere. (although some feel they are actually the second best team in ny it appears they had a bad race at manhatten where bayshore and unionville, pa beat them and didn't get to shine by winning their local qualifying meets because they run in the same conference with saratoga which also denies them a trip to the state meet but they should receive an at large bid to the all state meet 11/20 if they can beat bayshore there you could argue they deserve the second spot although the rankers may not see it that way)

Bethlehem wouldn't even be within 50 points of SH now, with Katelyn healthy. If rankings are arbitrary, and there are some assumptions, shouldn't they assume SH is one of the best teams in the country with her? With Katelyn, they have a top 3 every bit as good as Saratoga's (Schulz and Sammons both broke up Saratoga at Great American). Again, I am not saying they would beat them (frankly, Saratoga would beat many DI programs), but they might be #2 in the US with her.

Its a great idea, that fails....I know the guy that does the Northeast rankings, or use too, he happens to live in North NJ and always favors junk teams from there.

put katelyn into great american (and let her win the race a generous assumption given that she couldn't even beat sammons a few weeks before but whatever)

1.kaltenbach sh

2.blood saratoga 17:30

3.lane saratoga 17:56.5

4.sammons sh 17:59.8

5.schulz sh 18:04.5

6.davidson saratoga 18:08.1

7.ferguson saratoga 18:21.2

8.delay saratoga 18:22.50

9.mcelroy saratoga 18:55.0

10.campbell saratoga 19:34.2

11.stratton sh 19:58.3

12.mayer sh 20:26.0

dual meet scoring saratoga 26 smoky hill 33

invitational scoring saratoga 31 smoky hill 114

the scary thing is that blood and ferguson both had "bad" races so some might consider this an off race for toga teamwise as well. the following weekend blood dusted the girls great american winner aislinn ryan by 17 seconds over 2.5 miles at vancortlandt to break former footlocker champ erin keogh's 18 year old record. ferguson seemed to struggle duing september and october but now seems to be back to her footlocker regionals form running 17:09.4 for a course pr on the 3.05 course at their conference meet (lane 17:10.9 davidson 17:23.4 delay 18:00.2 mcelroy 18:15.9 campbell 18:19.9 trauscht 18:32.9 vahanian 18:58.5) blood finally took down the course record (held by by former footlocker champ erin davis) in 16:41.9

as for bethlehem (who earlier in the season got swept by toga in a dual meet) they managed to break up toga's top 5 one of toga's good days (which doesn't sound too impressive but it actually is)

1. 16 Saratoga (17:17.2 86:25.8)

========================================

1 1 Nicole Blood 16:41.9

2 2 Lindsey Ferguson 17:09.4

3 3 Caitlin Lane 17:10.9

4 4 Hannah Davidson 17:23.4

5 6 Karyn Delay 18:00.2

6 ( 12) Alysha McElroy 18:15.9

7 ( 13) Ashley Campbell 18:19.9

2. 65 Bethlehem (18:20.6 91:42.8)

========================================

1 5 Emily Malinowski 17:42.9

2 8 Roxanne Wegman 18:02.2

3 9 Kristin Kenney 18:07.1

4 19 Claire Luke 18:51.8

5 24 Kristin Peck 18:58.8

6 ( 34) Taylor Jackson 19:24.3

7 ( 51) krissy conroy 20:02.3

(jv runner gallagher 19:47.8)

I'm pretty sure I said in here a couple times that SH isn't going to beat Saratoga. My question is: how does SH drop in ranking when adding the National Champion? This isn't a Saratoga thread. No one will beat Saratoga, unless they stop to nap under a tree with a mile to go. They BETTER win, with that talent. Plug KK into the GA results in 10th, and they beat Bethlehem easily.

put katelyn into great american (and let her win the race a generous assumption given that she couldn't even beat sammons a few weeks before but whatever)

The reason Sammons beat Katelyn at Liberty Bell was due to the fact that, unbeknownst to both Katelyn and her coaches at the time, she was racing on a stress fracture!!!! Racing a 5k on a painful stress fracture and still managing a 5th place finish in just over 18:00 is pretty impressive I'd say!

Now I'm not claiming a repeat is in store this year, but let's not forget the fact that Kaltenbach and Schulz went 1st and 11th at Footlocker last year compared to 7th and 21st for Blood and Ferguson. The Saratoga program, and its runners, is/are tremendous - no doubt! I just think Smoky's girls deserve some respect as well - that's all!

gibb,

if you took that comment as critical of your athlete i'm sorry. it was only intended as a neutral view so don't take it personally but given that:

-aislinn ryan ran really well

-even before the stress fracture (ie golden west, aoc, earlier season xc meets) it didn't appear kaltenbach was running at or near her junior form

THEREFORE concluding she would win the race is a generous assumption could it have happened? perhaps.....given the circumstances surrounding her spring and fall would it have been surprising if she did not? no

is smoky hill a good team? sure they won another colorado state title and should be proud of their accomplishments would they be a better team if they didn't drop off as much after their top 3? of course (saratoga's strength this season seems to be their ability to just slam the door shut when you put you top 5 in the top 14 overall at great american you're going to be tough to beat and this can take the pressure off your top runners) could they perhaps beat south lake tahoe? perhaps but i don't think it's a no brainer they took down a tough reno team to win their own state title

If you look at Nevada State Meet results, the top ST girl was 2:00 behind the winner. I would go so far as to say SH would put AT LEAST 3 in front of their top girl, and their 4th would run right around their 1st or 2nd runner. If SH races at NTN, it won't be all that close. I am not sure it would be close between SH and Los Alamos, who is ranked 1st in the region! SH is too good up front, and decent for their 5th and 6th runner.

I suppose the bottom line is that the injury to KK has hurt SH's chances, and unfortunately that happens from time to time and from team to team. It does not mean that SH does not have a good team, or even may or may not be capable of taking SS; it just means that they do not qualify to attend under the rules that were set up in advance. It may not be fair, but it's fair, if you get my drift.

I myself would love to se SH and SS go at it. As for top runner, I am going to go way out on a limb and suggest that Katelyn Bastert is going to turn some heads. She'll bu up there with Ryan and Blood, for sure.

HS XC fan wrote:

Bethlehem wouldn't even be within 50 points of SH now, with Katelyn healthy. If rankings are arbitrary, and there are some assumptions, shouldn't they assume SH is one of the best teams in the country with her? With Katelyn, they have a top 3 every bit as good as Saratoga's (Schulz and Sammons both broke up Saratoga at Great American). Again, I am not saying they would beat them (frankly, Saratoga would beat many DI programs), but they might be #2 in the US with her.

AGAIN, Arbitrary rankings doesn't mean that their assumptions are going to match yours. KK is still an unknown at this point. Coming back so soon from a stress fracture can be a very iffy thing and few athletes can be at top form without a longer recovery time. I would be very surprised if KK is anywhere near her best in the near future.

i almost hope smoky hill gets an at large bid to ntn just so we don't have to hear about how they "could have" done so well at ntn and obviously everyone is "so unfair to the them" for the rest of the year. there was that huge thread about how smoky hill was going to be the number one team and there was no way even saratoga could run with them. but then at great american they get trounced by saratoga on one of saratoga's off days (and they still would have lost by a large margin even if kaltenbach had run and won)

Keara Sammons rules!

Smoky Hill is getting an at-large bid. You can bank everything on it.

I'm just trying to figure out why "????" is so damn bitter. I mean, are you actually talking smack to/about a bunch of high school kids? Probably an adult or parent involved with the program. I bet no one EVER said that SH couldn't run with them, just that SH might be able to give them a run. Again, Saratoga BETTER win with the amount of talent they have, especially since they picked up two big-time transfers. Oh, and yes I know "so did Smoky Hill." Take a deep breath and RELAX, okay?

Just because Katelyn is SUPPOSEDLY healthy and racing again doesnt mean SH deserves the #2 spot - how do we know that KK will be able to race but wont be nearly up to form and run as SH's 2nd or 3rd girl? We dont. It isnt fair to take a spot from a team that currently is better than SH just because they have a runner who could possibly be good and possibly not.

As for an at-large berth, if SH deserves it they will get it - otherwise, no.