Who's going to choke more: Oregon or Syracuse??

I am bias towards one of these universities, but i have to agree that they are ranked artificially high based on an outlier result earlier in the season. Yes, they are good, but wont finish top 3.

WHICH ONE? :) wrote:

... Yes, they are good, but wont finish top 3.

Ok, please share, who will finish top 3?

I assume Colorado...

But who are the 2 other schools?

YOU'LL SEE SOON MORON

inevitable wrote:

Both of these teams are way overrated. I don't even think Syracuse will podium.

Correct answer: 0 / 10

inevitable wrote:

Both of these teams are way overrated. I don't even think Syracuse will podium.

If those teams are as overrated as you assert, then a "choke" cannot occur.

inevitable wrote:

Both of these teams are way overrated. I don't even think Syracuse will podium.

Oregon could do well. Syracuse is overrated for sure.

My reasoning is that Syracuse's performance over 10k cross has been lack luster in the past, especially at nationals.

The Syracuse coach does not give his athletes the tools to run well (twice) over the 10k cross distance in 2 weeks. They lack the aerobic base to run consistently well over 10k xc. They are trained for a good track 5k or 8k cross but not 10k and it will show at the big dance.

Hopefully their coach will realize that they need to work more in order to run well in upcoming years. All Im saying is those guys need high mileage and bigger 10k geared workouts.

And Syracuse has some of the worst winter weather to work with, but that's a whole other story...

Historically, Oregon does well at these big events. Look only as far back as last year when the women won the championship, or a couple years ago when the men won it with Rupp. I don't look for Oregon to choke, I look for them to fight and claw for both men's and women's titles again.

The term aerobic base is outdated.

Mileage alone is not sufficient to make a championship team.

That numerous high mileage teams have tanked at nationals.

There hasn't been an NCAA XC individual champion without sub 4 mile capability in well over a decade.

dsrunner wrote:

The term aerobic base is outdated.

Mileage alone is not sufficient to make a championship team.

That numerous high mileage teams have tanked at nationals.

There hasn't been an NCAA XC individual champion without sub 4 mile capability in well over a decade.

I am sure most of the top guys can run close to 4:00 if not under.

Clearly Lawi Lalang......3:5x.....was a sub 4 guy when he won.

Syracuse not enough aerobic base? that's funny. Those guys run 85-100 most of the year. Other than Marcus at 'Nova, Syracuse is the only team that has a coach that was a legit athlete. I think they'll mind their business.

...correction...I would throw in Ray Tracey (PC) and Rob Gary (Furman).

anyone else? I know that's not the magic formula but it does offer credence to what Syracuse has accomplished by way of their coaching.

Fighting Duckies wrote:

Historically, Oregon does well at these big events. Look only as far back as last year when the women won the championship, or a couple years ago when the men won it with Rupp. I don't look for Oregon to choke, I look for them to fight and claw for both men's and women's titles again.

As I said on another thread

2013 their men finished 5th, the LRC poll picked them 4th, so they were overrated.

2012 their men finished 20th, the LRC poll picked them 12th, so they were overrated.

2011 they didn't even qualify, so they were overrated.

Their win with Rupp is about as relevant as Stanford's win with Hall.

dsrunner wrote:

The term aerobic base is outdated.

Mileage alone is not sufficient to make a championship team.

That numerous high mileage teams have tanked at nationals.

There hasn't been an NCAA XC individual champion without sub 4 mile capability in well over a decade.

Aerobic base is "outdated" and yet you inherently understand what I mean by it?

But i'll use terminology that you might prefer, their training is not specific to 10k track/10k xc racing.

Instead their coach trains them specific to 5k track and 8k xc. The result is that they are not able to run well over the 10k xc distance, twice in 2 weeks.

They have a lot of talent on their team but they don't develop 10k runners and cross country ability as well as they could. Their best 8k running Martin Herir does not run well over 10k xc (I don't expect him to break 30 minutes but he has the talent to do so with 10k specific training!). Historically their team has not performed well over both regionals and nationals (collectively). Hence, I believe them to be overrated. Now watch and they'll prove me wrong, make me look like an idiot haha.

Oregon, on the other hand, has the talent and the history.

Finally, saying that they run 80-100 mile weeks is different from knowing the quality of those 80-100 mile weeks. Are they jogging them or running 6 minute pace for most? I remember talking to someone about a few of their past top athletes, I think their names were Kyle Heath and Patrick Dupont, running only 30-50 mile weeks?

wareaglet wrote:

...correction...I would throw in Ray Tracey (PC) and Rob Gary (Furman).

anyone else? I know that's not the magic formula but it does offer credence to what Syracuse has accomplished by way of their coaching.

Was Mick Byrne before your time?

wareaglet wrote:

Syracuse not enough aerobic base? that's funny. Those guys run 85-100 most of the year. Other than Marcus at 'Nova, Syracuse is the only team that has a coach that was a legit athlete. I think they'll mind their business.

OOOh, Mick Byrne, you just been dissed!

the correct answer is Stanford

Syracuse.

Syracuse puts a chip on their shoulder. They loved being underrated coming in and out of Wisconsin. They run with a "We'll show them" attitude that is their ultimate undoing.

Every year have guys to try to make a statement and Nationals and blow up, hard. They are never comfortable to run within themselves and take what they've earned over the season.

Look at their performance at ACCs. They had it in the bag, but tried to sweep the top 5 spots. They didn't need to have 5 in the top 7 at 5k, but they wanted to dominate and did it anyway. Then most of them faded over the last 2k.

They're good enough for that mistake to go unnoticed in the team scores at ACCs, but they won't with 200 runners in the field at nationals, and 6 other teams fighting for their podium spot.

Honey wrote:

Syracuse.

Syracuse puts a chip on their shoulder. They loved being underrated coming in and out of Wisconsin. They run with a "We'll show them" attitude that is their ultimate undoing.

Every year have guys to try to make a statement and Nationals and blow up, hard. They are never comfortable to run within themselves and take what they've earned over the season.

Look at their performance at ACCs. They had it in the bag, but tried to sweep the top 5 spots. They didn't need to have 5 in the top 7 at 5k, but they wanted to dominate and did it anyway. Then most of them faded over the last 2k.

They're good enough for that mistake to go unnoticed in the team scores at ACCs, but they won't with 200 runners in the field at nationals, and 6 other teams fighting for their podium spot.

This is a pretty good point on the potential of "we'll show everyone" attitude backfiring. I think it depends on the individuals on the team, because I've had teammates that thrived in races with that kind of attitude and I've had others that just burnt the candle at both ends hyping themselves up and just not having a good effort because of it.

Honey wrote:

Syracuse.

Look at their performance at ACCs. They had it in the bag, but tried to sweep the top 5 spots. They didn't need to have 5 in the top 7 at 5k, but they wanted to dominate and did it anyway. Then most of them faded over the last 2k.

That's funny. So their 5th man missed 5th place by 9 seconds (that's less than half a second every 400 meters), and you are sure that this was a big mistake that reflects poor pacing? Ok. Maybe if they reduce the pacing error down to, let's say, about two-tenths of a second per 400m, it will meet your standards!