Well, this is all great. I didn't come back because I was bored, I came back because I figured the race-baiters might have died back a bit in view of the busts that happened this year.
Guys who were stupidly saying "As soon as a black guy runs fast you accuse him of using", which is obviously ridiculous. As soon as a guy goes under 9.8, I accuse him of using, no matter who he is or where he is from.
Take a look at this list of guys who have gone actual 9.80 and below (forget about Carter's fake 9.78):
Gay 9.69
Blake 9.69
Powell 9.72
Gatlin 9.77
Montgomery 9.78
Johnson 9.79
Greene 9.79
Mullings 9.80
Oh, look--ALL DOPERS. The list doesn't include Bolt.
Statistically now, if someone goes 9.80 or below, they have a 8/9 or 89% chance of being dirty. If you use this same statistical probability to estimate Bolt's chances of being dirty, there is a 100% probability that he is using, because every single other person to have gone 9.80 or below has used--i.e. it is statistically impossible for Bolt to do it without using.
They all happen to be black, because it just so happens that the best black guys have been faster over 100m than the best white guys. Make no mistake, there are lots of guys using who haven't even sniffed 9.80, both black and white--but that isn't relevant to the sub-9.80 discussion.
Anyway, the interesting things this year, for me, have been:
1) the emergence of young guys like Friday and Bromell, who show some promise, especially Friday, he's like KBC 2.0
2) KBC finally getting into some races in which he can do well. If he could start consistently, he would be either first or second in every one of his races this year, depending on whether or not Gatlin was running. He's interesting, even though he comes on at the end, I think he could be optimized for the 100 rather than the 200. I think he could have a great speed envelope, and great top-speed bloom, sustaining that high vmax or near it for maybe 20-25m, which is killer in the 100m. People aren't sold on him for some reason, "the jury's still out". Not for me. KBC and Ashmeade are the real deals, yes I know about Ashmeade's "training partners".
3) the FS rule needs to be changed back to the first FS charged to the field. No Ashmeade in Paris? No Rodgers or Pearson in Stockholm? We've been through the starter situation before, some starters truly suck. The set position is not a "comfortable" position that can be maintained reliably for any length of time. To be a starter requires a sense of timing. With a good starter, false starts would be rare. Think of the fans, they want to see people run. Think of the athletes, they work hard to get somewhere, then can't run? Give me a break, the current rule sucks.
4) Bromell is maxxed for his current body. If his body continues to develop, he will be a killer. He's like a medium combination between Collins and Powell right now. If he can add more power and lengthen his stride just a bit, even lengthen and eat up a little bit more in middle acceleration, he will be...devastating. The key will be to not expect too much, too early. He needs serious building, which would mean that his times shouldn't be great for the next 2 years. I would aim for Rio. If he tries to go too quickly too soon, he will just get injured. If he stays like he is, he will go just-sub-10 in each of the next few years, which may very well get him onto the US relay squad, but which won't qualify him individually unless someone gets hurt. If he builds properly, I could see him being 9.8x when Rio comes around, which would be a much more serious threat.
5) too bad about Vicaut getting injured repeatedly, that guy is a beast, he is my favorite. So much power. If he weren't so stiff, he would be a 9.7x guy, one of the fastest ever. He is an incredible physical talent. I don't know WTF they are doing with their sprinters in France, next time I go over there I will check, I know some people who are involved. There is a chance that I will move there, very close to where Lemaitre is from, so I will be boots on the ground. Nothing for sure yet, though.
6) Blake. I hope we never, ever see him again. Yes, he had the potential to do something decent this year, but of course he couldn't. He's an embarrassment, he is painful to watch and think about. He embarrasses himself, he embarrasses track. He's emotionally stunted, he's the over-compensator. He needs to find himself, and it needs to be outside track. He's caught in a bad environment, surrounded by idiots, no doubt. He needs to grow up, and get a life. Outside track.
7) the "where are they now" list...Ryan Bailey, SAFP, Jeter, Aries Merritt, Rollins, etc. You know how I feel about all of them. Is testing working? Were warnings given? Yes, and yes. Still not perfect, but better than it was. Nice to not see these people in the headlines.
8) Martinot-Lagarde should try the 200m, he and Lemaitre could teach each other a thing or two.
9) interestingly, it looks like Russia has taken the warnings to heart, look at the mid-d women. They seem to believe that stuff they do internally in Russia will be detectable even later on, at international tested meets, and don't seem willing to take the risk of getting caught.
10) IDK about the Chinese. My gut tells me that they are using in China this season in prep for worlds next year. Testing in China, right--try getting ANYTHING into China without lots of advance notice, let alone a drug tester. Zhang and Su are nowhere to be seen. In a year of slow times, Su is 71st at 10.15, Zhang is 85th at 10.18 (allegedly with no wind, although the race was in Beijing). That's nowhere, and they might not be satisfied with that--but remember, all they really care about is their rivalry with Japan, and where are the Japs? Kiryu 28th at 10.05, Takase 58th at 10.13, Cambridge 107th at 10.21, but those were all at meets in Japan. So, they all match up well, the question is will the Chinese try to boost. Unknown.
11) WTF Walter Dix? Holy crap, I don't ever remember seeing a guy who was so good get so crap, so fast. Makes me think he was solidly juiced, especially his 19.5x 200m. To fall SO far, is bizarre. Dude has problems. Life is hard, even harder now for Dix. He's tied for last on the USATF list at 10.27, and had way more wind than the others with whom he is tied. Ouch. Now, 10.27 (+1.6) is nothing to sneeze at, and he is tied with the likes of Dedric Dukes and Calesio Newman, 2 very good sprinters. I could see Dix coming back well next year if he continues to train in a real program, and remains uninjured--but it's hard/impossible to fit real training into a real life while staying clean, (ask me how I know). To be at the very top, you have to be immersed in your training. I don't know that Dix is, or that he even can be, because life is tough for a man who is his age, and who is 27th on the US list, and tied for 152nd on the world list.
12) I would love to see a serious men's 4x100m relay race this year, of all years. USA/Jam would be competitive if they each raced their best, but I would have to give the edge to Jam if Bolt were on anchor, and if KBC ran 2nd. Carter leadoff, KBC a long 2nd, Ashmeade turn, and Bolt anchor. Nice. vs Bromell leadoff, Gatlin a long 2nd, Gay turn, and Rodgers anchor. Sub in Weir/Livermore or Friday on each team. Then you would have GB, and a bunch of others coming in behind, very nice, and very close, especially the field--Japan, China, Germany, Canada, France, Nigeria, SKN, T&T, etc.
13) you all know how I have called out bogus timing in past years, this year we see it in spades. Thompson 9.82, yeah, right, just like Carter 9.78. Interesting about Collins 9.96--did he actually do it? I believe he is certainly capable of it, but WTF with the start? It is of course possible that they all did jump except for him, but it's still strange, and will forever have an asterisk for me.
14) nice to see guys actually fatiguing this year, not seeming to accelerate throughout the entire race like Gay et al used to do. This year, we actually get to see that there is essentially nobody with a "complete" race, that 9.7x-stuff. Everyone seems to have their strengths and weaknesses, which is how it should be--and even guys who have a smooth race model, guys like Rodgers, are running 9.9x and higher, not 9.7x and lower.
15) we will look back on the 9.58/9.63/9.69-etc. era as Seoul 2.0 Completely ridiculous, and completely obvious. Everybody is claiming that this is just a nothing year, with no world's or Olympics, but look at 2010, look at all the guys under 10-flat. It's time to sit back and enjoy the racing, which brings up my next point:
16) guys should race more in off-years. Forget about the huge peak, forget about ducking, for get about all that big-moment stuff, and concentrate on consistency, and racing. Hats off to circuit guys like Gatlin, Rodgers, Carter, and Collins, who seem to be everywhere, all the time (unless not invited). Those are your real sprinters, guys who seemingly will go any time, any place. That's how it should be. There should be a bigger prize in these off-years for cumulative performance. Plus, who really cares if you lose some races? Does it tarnish your image? No. Would anybody think less of Bolt if he were to lose in 9.95 to Gatlin winning in 9.80? Of course not. Frequent racing would set up dynamics, even some trash, which would be great for the sport.
17) what should really happen in these off-years is huge relay meets, that way individuals wouldn't be singled-out for inferior performance. Everybody loves a relay, there is always drama, even if it is from botched exchanges (Canada).
18) Gemili has looked surprisingly good. I was singing his praises in earlier years, but he never seemed to live up to them, until his great 200, was it last year? I have always liked his form. I haven't looked at his race closely, but it is interesting that he is not consistently just-sub-10. I don't know where he falls a bit short, maybe in the first few steps, I don't know.
19) upcoming meets: too bad that Gatlin won't be in Zurich, but whatever. He has had plenty of opportunities to race this year. Will he run in Rieti? IDK. How will he do after this seemingly long break? Gay as well? Gay doesn't really interest me anymore, even though he's tied for 4th on the world list at 9.93, but we will see how he does. A guy as bland as him needs to have his sprinting do the talking for him, and it needs to be spectacular. For him, incredibly, 4th just won't cut it IMO. And, he's actually 3rd, because Thompson's 9.82 is bogus!
20) what started out as a "meh" startlist at Weltklasse has quickly turned very interesting:
HAA
KBC
Carter
Dasaolu
Gay
Gemili
Powell
Rodgers
Thompson
Basically, all the top guys are there, except for Bolt and Vicaut. Was Powell's 9.87 for real? We will see. This is how I call it:
Gay
KBC
Rodgers
Powell
Carter
Dasaolu
Gemili
Thompson
HAA
Hard to call this one, I guess I want to see KBC really break out. He seems to be in very good shape, hopefully he can get a start. I don't trust the 9.87, so I will put Rodgers' consistency over Powell in this one. lol if Powell comes out smoking fast--if so, I want to see him go head-to-head with Gatlin later this year, preferably in Rieti. How great would that be, the big guns would be back, just like the good old days, except 9.8's now instead of 9.7's. Of course it's Rieti so they would fudge the times, and 9.7x would win it.
The Weltklasse 200m is interesting as well, Edward needs to reinforce his 19.8 to make it believable. I want to see Lemaitre do very well in this race, it's close to home for him, but his fitness level seems nowhere. He has that great front-side arm action, that allows him to get high knees and a super-long stride in the second half of the race, but it just hasn't been enough, because his stride frequency is just too slow--which gets him nowhere around the turn, because he doesn't seem to lengthen his stride early enough. He needs to learn that he is all about SE right now, and that he should get as long as possible, as soon as possible. To that end, if he gets an inside lane, he is done for--but if he gets an outside lane, 19.9 might be possible.
21) so far this year, there are only 13 guys officially sub-10, and discounting Collins, Brown, and Magakwe, only 10. In the 200, there are only 8 guys sub-20. Nice.
22) Rieti. I want to see a big race in Rieti, I want all the guys who need to prove something--Gay, Gatlin, Powell--race there. I want to see KBC race there, and journeymen Carter, Rodgers, and Collins.
23) I am personally learning how to sprint again. Back-side mechanics, phases, transition, arm action, everything needed work. Only this year have I felt anything close to the confidence that I used to feel, that I could execute something the way it should be executed, and not just power some garbage form to some garbage time. It's very fun to be uninjured, I'm really looking forward to indoors and next year.