Is now a good time to invest?

Now is the time to get the money out of paper/fiat/digital promises. Convert to gold, silver, palladium, platinum. A mix is advised, myself I am 100% in siver. And regret I didn't get palladium sooner, obviously.

Get the actual metal in your hands. Pay cash for it, not check, not wire. No bill to your name. Thank me later.

I would advise to buy Silver Maple Leafs (many reasons), a variety of lower premium private mint rounds (look for options and deals). And some silver semi-numismatics. Research it. Gold in 1/10oz to 1oz, unique edition without significant extra premium over Maple Leafs. Palladium and Platinum cheapest with COA.

Metals are in a 3-year bear market, bouncing on a bottom, the best buying opportunity of this lifetime. You get richer picking the next Google or Apple, but realistically, how many top stock pickers actually did?

A gold ounce bought a gentleman's coat and armor in the Roman days. Suppose, you were sommoned for a feast with Caesar.

Now, if you're summoned by Warren Buffett or your King, you get yourself a custom Italian suit. Guess how much that costs today? Yeah, a gold ounce. The price of a decent work horse also remained roughly level over 2000 years.

The purchase power of a 1914 dollar now takes you $30-35. Few generations never get to deal with inflation. All people we ever knew, dealt with it, HARD. Gold and silver always kept their purchase power, give or take, with fluctuations.

My plan is to buy gold/silver now, being under valued. Silver miners can't make money at these levels. I will sell when overvalued, or when buying more land than today.

Take my advice or take Dow call options for it to hit 19,000 a year from now. Guess which will make you sleep better at night :-)

clueless investor wrote:

I recently got some inheritance money from my grandparents and was discussing investing it in a retirement account with my dad. He said that because the stock market has been doing so well for some time now without any significant downfall, there is likely to be a bit of a crash sometime in the next 6 months, so I should hold off on investing the money for now in case that happens. I don't really know anything about this but I'm a bit skeptical.

Anyone who has some knowledge of this stuff care to comment? Is my dad full of it or should I follow his advice?

Hi flaggy.

100% in silver? So did you make your tin-foil hat of silver as well?

Yes, the market is high but if you want to get in, do so gradually with good old fashioned blue chip dividend companies like T, VZ, PG, JNJ, PEP, KO, etc. They will follow the trend of the market either way but not as drastic. They will also more than likely keep paying and increasing their dividend. Sign up for DRIP.

If silver guy is right and everything crashes and the end of the financial world comes, it really won't matter either way will it?

JFC

do not listen to this guy

ignore anyone with this ultra confident I am right, thank me later attitude.

Do some reading - ric edelman and Dave ramsey are good places to start.

The easy answer is that there is no way to predict the next few years of the stock market. So if you invest you have to understand the principles of long term investing - you can get killed - even warren buffet gets killed sometimes - but if you understand long term priniples you will (probably) be fine.

But don't invest unless you have done some research and understand how investing works.

There is a company out west called "aerotyne" you should invest in. They are up and coming and have the latest technology...satellites, high tech equipment that will power our cells for a long time to come. Invest there!

There could be a market correction in the next 6-12 months. It is not a bad idea to hold off and park the money in a CD. If the market comes back 20-25% and you get in at the bottom, you will reap big rewards 30-40 years later when you retire.

Precious Roy wrote:

There could be a market correction in the next 6-12 months. It is not a bad idea to hold off and park the money in a CD. If the market comes back 20-25% and you get in at the bottom, you will reap big rewards 30-40 years later when you retire.

...and if there isn't a 20-25% bear market?

and what if there is in fact a 20% bull market? then he has just given up a lot of money on a pretty stupid bet.

Do not bet on things as unpredictable like the next 12 months of stock market returns.

anyway, 2/3 of years are up years - why bet on a 1/3 occurence?

Seriously, go to the bogleheads.org forum and ask your question there.

clueless investor wrote:

I recently got some inheritance money from my grandparents and was discussing investing it in a retirement account with my dad. He said that because the stock market has been doing so well for some time now without any significant downfall, there is likely to be a bit of a crash sometime in the next 6 months, so I should hold off on investing the money for now in case that happens. I don't really know anything about this but I'm a bit skeptical.

Anyone who has some knowledge of this stuff care to comment? Is my dad full of it or should I follow his advice?

It is impossible for the average investor to beat the market or time it correctly. The smartest thing you can do right now is accept that you are not smarter than the market at large. The best you can do is make what the market is making. And by that, I mean you should put your money into some very broad market ETFs. DO NOT buy individual stocks. DO NOT assume that the market is in a bubble. Neither you nor anyone here is smart enough to make that determination. Just put it all in the most diverse asset you can find and forget about for the next 30 years. I assure you that the simplest approach is the best.

Wow. Another Letsrunner with money problems. And the problem is too much money.

Don't try to time to market. It's a waste of time.

Do some research on individual stocks before you dive in.

A good company looks long-term beyond the arbitrary time

frame of a year.

The stock market is not logical and often subject to the whims of human behavior. Account for that.

Thanks for the serious responses, I definitely am on board with the simplest is best approach (going to invest in index funds, not individual stocks). Basically trying to get a sense of whether a market correction is likely to happen in the next 6-12 months, or whether it's worth even trying to predict that. The boglehead site looks good, I will check it out more in depth.

one of those guys wrote:

100% in silver? So did you make your tin-foil hat of silver as well?

Yes, the market is high but if you want to get in, do so gradually with good old fashioned blue chip dividend companies like T, VZ, PG, JNJ, PEP, KO, etc. They will follow the trend of the market either way but not as drastic. They will also more than likely keep paying and increasing their dividend. Sign up for DRIP.

If silver guy is right and everything crashes and the end of the financial world comes, it really won't matter either way will it?

Silver? WTF?

Maybe you should check who you are replying to and what they have said. Just a thought.

agreed. anybody that thinks they can predict the next crash or correction within a 6-12 months is a fool or trying to sell you something.

I wouldnt drop all my money in now but I also wouldnt stay completely out. do you own research and find stocks that have a risk/volatility you're comfortable with. check past performance up/downs compared to other stock market indexes at those times. have cash ready to buy stocks you like and wait for those times when the market over reacts to some bad news.

i do pretty well without trying to trading options, commodities or metals. to me the risk far outweighs the benefits for someone. im not experienced or educated enough to try that but Im savy enough to know I can make some pretty good returns - better than what an even an honest investor can get me just my willing to put the time in - without being shark bait.

I just dont get why people will slave away 40+ hours working making money for someone else but dont feel its worth it to put a fraction of the time making their money work for them.

two more cents wrote:

I just dont get why people will slave away 40+ hours working making money for someone else but dont feel its worth it to put a fraction of the time making their money work for them.

Because most people will go to any length to avoid the uncomfortable task of thinking.

Slaving away 40+ hours working doesn't require thinking. Blindly dumping their money into "investments" without thinking if they are getting good value for their investment dollar is also not thinking.

I agree. Here's a timely article:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/08/19/retirement/401k-investments/index.html?iid=HP_LN

"n a survey of 1,000 retirement savers conducted for Charles Schwab, more than half said they had spent five hours or more doing research the last time they bought a car, and 39% said they spent more than five hours exploring vacation possibilities.

Meanwhile, a mere 11% said they had spent that amount of time evaluating investment options for their 401(k). In fact, around one-third of savers said they spent less than an hour on investment research."

One certainty in stock markets is that the next crash will come. It WILL. Maybe not in 2 years, but in 3. They tend to be in the newspaper after it happened. No text service to get out in time.

If you have no clue what to do with inherited moeny you don't need, there are a few options I see:

1 - stay in cash, hope that you'll find a way to spend before inflation happens (it's happening)

1A in a bank account, low interest (subject to bail ins)

1B in paper in a safe (place), subject to burglary

2 - any sort of dividend generating paper "asset"

3 - precious metals (purchase power parking long term, with short term up- and downsides. Don't leave a paper trail.

4 - stocks (gambling it will outpace inflation until you sell). This is usually does, until it doesn't anymore.

5 - Do something productive. Build an indoor venue. Go into production with you invention. Open a franchise. Donate to something close to your heart.

6 - Real estate. Detroit has good prices. Argentina is on 50% peso discount of late. Both cases, a bomb or bulldozer can ruin it. Insurance doesn't cover everything. will insurance rebuild Gaza?

Having utterly failed at increasing my fiat position (lost all in a...wait for it...CRASH), I have decided that I care more to hold long-term purchase power. Thus precious metals. My choice for silver over other metals is a simple one each time, although it's a long list of reasons. For me, physical silver is a high return generating asset. No-one is forced to see it that way, and it sure helps me if you don't. No hedge fund offers the return physical silver offer me. And they don't do it for modest portfolios.

My investment portfolio is purchase power I don't need right now. If I need it in 10-20 years, I need it to still be there. None of the other options offer certainty. Metals come closest. Its logic appeals to me.

If anyone is the kind of genius that gets into financial markets for the first time with Dow at 17K and interest at zero, and makes good revenue from it, more power to you. I have studied markets for half a decade now and I can't find a way to make that any less risky than roulette.

It's the worst possible market climate ever, that I am aware of, to be a paper/digital based investor would anomalous luck inherited along with the money.

In these times, I worry more about not going broke than about not getting much richer. But I did choose a path with (in my vision) largest likelihood op upside potential (expressed in real estate) in the ~10 year time frame could be longer, I won'y complain. By then most current investors will have taken huge hits. These markets are not going to be OK forever. And one should not treat as a game of chicken. Who gets out first does not necessarily lose.

It's called the business cycle, the ups and downs of the market will always be there. Don't try to time.

If you're timeline is > 20 years do the following:

1. Open a vangaurd account

2. Set up a dollar cost averaging situation, where you feed in 5% of your money every month until it is all in. (or whatever timeframe you are comfortable with.

3. With those purchases, buy Vanguard Total Market (%60), Vangaurd Intl (%20), and their total bond fund (20%).

Keep pumping in money every paycheck until you are 60.

Retire w/ 3 - 5 million.

The combination of your bolded comments are truly priceless. Thanks for the laughs.