Adidas Boys Dream Mile Prediction Thread

Maton FTW!!

You are quite possibly the stupidest poster on letsrun.

Suhki Khosla FTW

There's no athlete who clearly is the favorite for this race; everyone, save Grant Fisher I suppose, has beaten each other and lost to each other.

With that said, I see a few favorites:

Blake Haney--3:44 1500 nearly a year ago, clearly better at the 3200 and 800 this year; his times aren't that good for the mile but he has the endurance to stay with anyone and the speed to outkick the field.

Grant Fisher--footlocker champ, NBIN champ easily, he ran 4:08 converted as a sophomore and hasn't lost an individual race since IAAF juniors I believe. Unfortunately, although he's looked plenty strong this season, with an 8:55 solo 3200 and numerous 4:10s-4:14s, he hasn't actually run a fast race this year; whether it's because of shape or lack of necessity I don't know (other posters can help if they know).

Ricky Faure--4:07 indoors converted, 47 and 1:48 speed, which is insane. Because I don't see this race going close to 4:00, I think he has the ability to run away with the win in the last lap.

Garrett O'toole--4:01.9! The favorite on paper probably. He's looking strong. He's lost to others in this race this year, but he could take it.

And of course the rest of the field easily could win too. I'll probably go with O'toole in 4:03, but it's anyone's race.

O'Toole and Faure have been the most impressive recently. O'Toole will need to use his strength to get away from Faure's speed. The classic matchup. I'll take a flyer on Faure edging out O'Toole.

Can't count Haney out completely but he doesn't seem to be as fit as O'Toole or as fast as Faure.

Khosla has another year and he's going to need it before he's a contender for the top spot.

NotAustin18 wrote:

Gotta stick with the Oregon boy, junior Matthew Maton! I don't think anyone goes sub 4 though. Depending on weather it'll be in the 402-405 range. Maton ran 1:52.89 earlier this season in the 800 in a sit and kick style race.

Who's your pick to win? Will anyone go sub 4?

Garret O'Toole. He just ran 4:01, and he has also run a 1:50 800. Endurance or speed, take your pick. Does anyone have a list of who will be running yet? If it isn't windy, and if someone sacrifices himself as a rabbit, someone like O'Toole will sit on the rabbit and then kick for a sub-4. Otherwise, it's going to go 4:02, which is still great.

Faure is the most underrated distance runner in the country this spring. No one is talking about him. Living in Wyoming and facing no one all season will do that to you. He run ridiculous times basically by himself this year. If he's smart, he'll sit on the top two or three guys until 500m to go and then make his move with a huge last lap. I don't see anyone going sub-4, but a bunch of guys going 4:01-4:05.

Shawn H wrote:

NotAustin18 wrote:

Gotta stick with the Oregon boy, junior Matthew Maton! I don't think anyone goes sub 4 though. Depending on weather it'll be in the 402-405 range. Maton ran 1:52.89 earlier this season in the 800 in a sit and kick style race.

Who's your pick to win? Will anyone go sub 4?

Does anyone have a list of who will be running yet?

This article has the participants.

uphill run wrote:

Faure is the most underrated distance runner in the country this spring. No one is talking about him. Living in Wyoming and facing no one all season will do that to you. He run ridiculous times basically by himself this year. If he's smart, he'll sit on the top two or three guys until 500m to go and then make his move with a huge last lap. I don't see anyone going sub-4, but a bunch of guys going 4:01-4:05.

Yes, that 1:48 he ran was great. No doubt the best speed in the race, if he has the endurance. A real dark horse.

Shawn H wrote:

NotAustin18 wrote:

Gotta stick with the Oregon boy, junior Matthew Maton! I don't think anyone goes sub 4 though. Depending on weather it'll be in the 402-405 range. Maton ran 1:52.89 earlier this season in the 800 in a sit and kick style race.

Who's your pick to win? Will anyone go sub 4?

Garret O'Toole. He just ran 4:01, and he has also run a 1:50 800. Endurance or speed, take your pick. Does anyone have a list of who will be running yet? If it isn't windy, and if someone sacrifices himself as a rabbit, someone like O'Toole will sit on the rabbit and then kick for a sub-4. Otherwise, it's going to go 4:02, which is still great.

I think there are some noted front-runners in the field, although whether they'll choose to do so in this setting is another matter. Conner Mantz and Sukhi Khosla both do it, and I think Maton might too. I don't see Mantz, Maton, or Khosla being able to run faster than 4:04 or so, but if they decided to lead the field could definitely reach the 1200 in 3:02-3 which would give the ones with strong kicks a chance for 4:00. Should be a great race.

Maton is pretty versatile. He just responds to the race and changes up his strategy accordingly. At state 3k he just sat on the leader at around 840 3k pace, then with 600 to go threw in a 28 200 then closed with a 60 flat last 400 to win in 8:29.

At state xc he ran a fast 1st mile in 4:41 to break the field then tempoed the rest for an easy win in 14:59 and was only 4 seconds off Rupp's state record(same course).

At state in the 1500m this year, he just lead from the gun and had a comfy lead by 300m into it. He did the 1st lap under 59 or 60 seconds. Then he finished in 3:53.03, 2nd was 3:58 I believe.

He's more of a 5k/10k type like Rupp, but being from Oregon and having a great Oregon runner in the field, I gotta root for Maton.

I've been reading this forums for a while and I get annoyed by one thing that people point out about Oregon XC...

Rupp ran the state meet his senior year as a tempo run. He ran a second slower (or was it the same time?) his junior year, where he actually raced. You cannot compare Rupp's state XC record to an actual athlete racing. If you do, you are more comparing to Rupp's junior year rather than senior year.

So the above poster is saying that Maton is 3-4 seconds behind Rupp's junior year.

"Ricky Faure--4:07 indoors converted, 47 and 1:48 speed, which is insane. Because I don't see this race going close to 4:00, I think he has the ability to run away with the win in the last lap."

THIS^^^^^^^^^^^

What people don't know about that 1:48 is that he ran a 1:49 12 hours prior to it and went through the 400 at 50 in that race. Plus, those guys over there in Wyoming can't train until like May due to weather.

The rest of the field either takes it out in 1:58 or watches this kid from Wyoming do what he did in Arcadia.

Can someone remind me again why he's not coming to Eugene?? Oops.

People are vastly overestimating how good Faure is in the mile. Watch the Arcadia mile again--he only kicked in 58 off of a slow pace and wasn't able to stick with the guy running 63s like clockwork before he passed him on the final 100. In a race that's faster, against kids who actually have kicks, he just isn't that likely to win.

I'm going to go with Grant Fisher to win here. He hasn't lost a race in a year and he's the only one in the field who I see going professional, or at least professional for the 1500. Final time will be slow though--4:03 or so.

Connor Mantz from Utah. ala Ben Saarel. Those Utah kids are mountain goats.

han solar wrote:

Connor Mantz from Utah. ala Ben Saarel. Those Utah kids are mountain goats.

Conner Mantz is great, but he's never run under 4:10, has no speed to speak of, and is just an aerobic monster. Maybe next year he'll contend for the win but I think he should be happy with a 4:05 and a 4th place.

Grant fisher was injured playing soccer a few weeks ago but recovered in time for states. I call him winning it. He has everything from speed to endurance. All those 4;10-4:14 races this year have been sit and kick in the last 300m. He has had no competition. At saline golden triangle meet he closed in 54 seconds for his last 400 and made it look easy. This guy is the real deal.

Spencer Haik!

Just kidding. Tough call. Winners find a way to win so I will go with Fisher. Interested to see how the WY guy runs in a field this stacked, though.

God I hope you're making the soccer thing up. No reason to be risking an incredibly bright running future playing soccer anymore. Especially during the season, making your way toward races at the national level.

In michigan sasd wrote:

Grant fisher was injured playing soccer a few weeks ago but recovered in time for states. I call him winning it. He has everything from speed to endurance. All those 4;10-4:14 races this year have been sit and kick in the last 300m. He has had no competition. At saline golden triangle meet he closed in 54 seconds for his last 400 and made it look easy. This guy is the real deal.