Can Kiprop Break the 1500M WR?

It's an off year, and I think he's hinted multiple times that he wants to run fast, so he'll at least go for it.

His 3:27.7 last year was a pretty ideal race, maybe half a second or so to gain? He looks to be in better form this year opening with a 3:29 and then soloing a 3:32.

If he gets a legit shot with good weather, and even pacing, I think he scares it, but no cigar. I'd say around 3:26 mid if everything went to plan.

Right now, running 3:25.xx seems a little out of his ability, but who knows. It will be fun to watch if he actually goes for it once or twice.

I think he goes after it but runs 3:26.high.

I also think Centro goes under 3:30/3:50 this year.

It's looking like Kiprop and Ndiku at least, and possibly Kiplagat as well, are going for the WR at Monaco. You could break the existing WR and finish 3rd. Not going to be easy for any of them, of course.

kiprop is the only one with a legit shot at it

3-25xx is insane

el guerrouj was pumped full of every ped known to science

I don't think Kiprop has that kind of speed. I think he's maxed out his potential.

I think Aregawi has a better chance of getting the women's mark. That Chinese mark is a bit of a soft mark nowadays, and Aregawi has the speed, but hasn't targeted it yet. When she does, look out.

So you really think the 3:50 women's mark is more easily achieved than 3:26.00? Interesting. Not saying you're wrong.

On the men's side, it's good that Kiprop has lots of fast competition, as that will help him lay down a fast time. When was the last time on either the men's or women's sides that a 1500 WR was a possibility?

Any chances for these guys (or girls) to go after the mile WR, as st least on the men's side, it's a slightly softer record than the 1500 one.

GoldenMiles wrote:

So you really think the 3:50 women's mark is more easily achieved than 3:26.00? Interesting. Not saying you're wrong.

On the men's side, it's good that Kiprop has lots of fast competition, as that will help him lay down a fast time. When was the last time on either the men's or women's sides that a 1500 WR was a possibility?

Any chances for these guys (or girls) to go after the mile WR, as st least on the men's side, it's a slightly softer record than the 1500 one.

The reasoning behind it is that the men's record is more a max potential record, whereas the women's record is, imo, vulnerable because I think women milers have more room for growth than men milers as of now.

Men have a long line of great runners in the mile category, running great times, whereas there has never really been a legendary women miler, the records are by dopers who weren't really that talented.

For whatever reason, in this particular event women's talent has not been maxed. I do believe Aregawi and G. Dibaba are the real deal and are very talented and can both shatter that mark. Not saying it will be easy, but they have the potential and then some.

Can he pay his compatriot Kiplagat to get him to 1200 in 2:44 or 2:45? He'd still have to close pretty hard in 40-1. Kiprop's very much shown he has the capability to run under 3:27. He might just be able to scare the record, but it might be hard for him to do it in just one serious try, as he has done in previous years. At Pre, why not start out the quest with a shot at 3:45 or better for the mile? He's never run close to a commensurate mile with a pr around 3:48 or 3:49. The record is 3:43.12.

By reasonable distance-to-time/ratio estimates a top woman should be around 20 seconds slower than a top man in the 1500m event. The woman's record is currently 24+ seconds slower.

(consider that the ratio margins for sprints, where women have come closer to maxing, are much smaller gaps compared to best men, percentage wise, than in the 800/1500)

I think a very talented woman should be able to go sub-3:50 with virtual ease.

The women's 1500, however, has grown accustomed to slow races because of lack of talent over the years. Now you have two legit talents, and a bundle of really fast women (Obiri, Cherono) but they have to break the psychological barrier, more so than the physical barrier.

Caged wrote:

I don't think Kiprop has that kind of speed. I think he's maxed out his potential.

Speed is trainable ya know

I hope he can take the record away from that dirty moroccan

It should not be Can , it should When will he break the record. It will be this summer in a paced race. Remember its an off year no championship type training he can for the record as he has stated.

Clock is ticking wrote:

It should not be Can , it should When will he break the record. It will be this summer in a paced race. Remember its an off year no championship type training he can for the record as he has stated.

What is championship type training and what does it have to do with not being able to run a fast 1500?

Caged wrote:

I don't think Kiprop has that kind of speed. I think he's maxed out his potential.

I think Aregawi has a better chance of getting the women's mark. That Chinese mark is a bit of a soft mark nowadays, and Aregawi has the speed, but hasn't targeted it yet. When she does, look out.

Kiprop has run 3:27 and has less of a shot of breaking 3:26 than Aregawi has of breaking 3:50 after running 3:55 or something like that?

Yes, I understand that the men's records have been set with a series of fantastic runners who virtually maxed out their potentials, while womens' fields have been traditionally much softer.

However, 3:55 is nothing remotely SIMILAR to 3:50. You can say Aregawi has "potential", but to what extent? 3:55 could easily end up as one of the best runs she ever performs. It does not actually imply that she will run any faster this season.

For instance, the season Isaiah Koech ran 12:53 indoors, he did not experience any significant improvement outdoors at all. For all we know, Aregawi could have left EVERYTHING on the track during the indoor season, and could simply max out at 3:53.7 or something like that.

If a male runner manages 3:30 indoors, nobody in the right mind would immediately thing "Wow! El Guerrouj's record is going down!". Likewise, a female runner pulling off a 3:55 indoors is still leagues away from 3:50.

Seyta wrote:

If a male runner manages 3:30 indoors, nobody in the right mind would immediately thing "Wow! El Guerrouj's record is going down!".

Except for the fact that 3:30 is almost El G's 1500m indoor PR.

oosk wrote:

Seyta wrote:

If a male runner manages 3:30 indoors, nobody in the right mind would immediately thing "Wow! El Guerrouj's record is going down!".

Except for the fact that 3:30 is almost El G's 1500m indoor PR.

as is Geb's

violent crime wrote:

oosk wrote:

Except for the fact that 3:30 is almost El G's 1500m indoor PR.

as is Geb's

Thanks for supporting my point

I would say that championship type training is where you aim to peak your fitness for the championship.

You tend to train through the races during the season and therefore are not tapered enough to run as fast as you could of you were more rested.

In an off year you can let it rip in every race without worrying about burnout before the big meet.

You give yourself more chances to run a fast time.

Kiprop needs to add about 10 pounds of muscle. He would run 3:24.