Kenyan 4 x 1500 Not A Lock For Gold

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  • Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
    6 years ago 05/24/2014 1:18am CDT
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    Yes, they are clearly faster if you add up all of their SB's or PB's. However, those were achieved while racing in a pack. None of them got a PB or SB by leading wire to wire. If they take the lead immediately, someone who is currently in shape to run about 4-6 seconds slower can hang with them if they don't let the gap open up.

    Drafting is huge. If the other teams, such as USA are smart, they will tell their guys "Do NOT let a gap open up! If you want a shot at winning, you must never be running with your nose in the wind. Glue yourself to the back of the Kenyans. If you are running one of the first 3 legs and think you can pass them, DON'T! You'll screw whoever you are handing the baton off to. Just stay right on their heels. You don't pass them until 5950 meters into the race." USA should run their fastest guy first to ensure they stay right on them. Once the gap opens it's over.

    If Kenya is smart, run Kiprop first and have him totally blitz the first 800, opening up an insurmountable gap. Game over at that point, but Kenya usually runs completely stupid so they'll probably put him last.
  • Haha, YO (super cereal)
    6 years ago 05/24/2014 3:27am CDT
    re: Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
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    I agree having Kip run the first leg and going out really hard would be the best strategy. Who is the USs first leg? Whoever it is will get their lungs blown out and will probably not be able to stay within 5 seconds.
  • Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
    6 years ago 05/24/2014 1:03pm CDT
    re: Haha, YO (super cereal)
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    Haha, YO (super cereal) wrote:

    I agree having Kip run the first leg and going out really hard would be the best strategy. Who is the USs first leg? Whoever it is will get their lungs blown out and will probably not be able to stay within 5 seconds.

    Haven't heard any details, but would assume none of the Kenyans can run faster than 3:34 solo, which means the US men could theoretically stay very close.
  • Running Solo
    6 years ago 05/24/2014 1:07pm CDT
    re: Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
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    Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:
    ...assume none of the Kenyans can run faster than 3:34 solo, which means the US men could theoretically stay very close.

    And which U.S. men run 3:34 solo?
  • Rudiger
    6 years ago 05/24/2014 1:25pm CDT
    re: Running Solo
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    And which Kenyan men can't run 3:34 solo?

    Who do you think leads non-rabbited races?
  • Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
    6 years ago 05/24/2014 2:46pm CDT
    re: Running Solo
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    Running Solo wrote:

    Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:
    ...assume none of the Kenyans can run faster than 3:34 solo, which means the US men could theoretically stay very close.

    And which U.S. men run 3:34 solo?


    They don't have to run 3:34 solo, they sit behind the lead Kenyan and put out the equivalent of about 1.25 seconds less energy per lap compared to not drafting at all.

    3:34 leading the entire way is very difficult.
  • trackcoach
    6 years ago 05/24/2014 2:55pm CDT
    re: Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
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    Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:

    Yes, they are clearly faster if you add up all of their SB's or PB's. However, those were achieved while racing in a pack. None of them got a PB or SB by leading wire to wire. If they take the lead immediately, someone who is currently in shape to run about 4-6 seconds slower can hang with them if they don't let the gap open up.

    Drafting is huge. If the other teams, such as USA are smart, they will tell their guys "Do NOT let a gap open up! If you want a shot at winning, you must never be running with your nose in the wind. Glue yourself to the back of the Kenyans. If you are running one of the first 3 legs and think you can pass them, DON'T! You'll screw whoever you are handing the baton off to. Just stay right on their heels. You don't pass them until 5950 meters into the race." USA should run their fastest guy first to ensure they stay right on them. Once the gap opens it's over.

    If Kenya is smart, run Kiprop first and have him totally blitz the first 800, opening up an insurmountable gap. Game over at that point, but Kenya usually runs completely stupid so they'll probably put him last.


    I am going to disregard everything you said and say Kenya can drop the baton and still win. There is almost no way a team that can average 3:30 is going to lose to a team that averages 3:34...no way, no how.
  • Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
    6 years ago 05/24/2014 9:45pm CDT
    re: trackcoach
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    I swear runners are some of the most hard headed athletes alive. Obviously the odds are very low and if the USA team doesn't think they can do it they surely won't, but from a physics standpoint it is absolutely possible to make up a 4 second gap if the faster runner is the rabbit the entire time.
  • LM
    registered
    6 years ago 05/24/2014 9:51pm CDT
    re: Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
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    Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:

    I swear runners are some of the most hard headed athletes alive. Obviously the odds are very low and if the USA team doesn't think they can do it they surely won't, but from a physics standpoint it is absolutely possible to make up a 4 second gap if the faster runner is the rabbit the entire time.

    Sure it's possible in theory, but not when the runner you're trying to catch is Asbel Kiprop.

    The only way I could see US winning is if they somehow open up a really big gap, but I think Kiprop might even run down a US guy with a 4-6 second lead.
  • Octa
    6 years ago 05/25/2014 12:21am CDT
    re: Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
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    Outside losing the baton or falling down, chances are still good that the the Kenyans in this team are capable of salvaging minor errors, if it comes down to that. However, this can also be seen as a problem Kenyans are over-confident and leave it too close to the end for US or another country to win.
  • george oscar bluth
    6 years ago 05/25/2014 12:28am CDT
    re: Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
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    Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:

    Yes, they are clearly faster if you add up all of their SB's or PB's. However, those were achieved while racing in a pack. None of them got a PB or SB by leading wire to wire. If they take the lead immediately, someone who is currently in shape to run about 4-6 seconds slower can hang with them if they don't let the gap open up.

    Drafting is huge. If the other teams, such as USA are smart, they will tell their guys "Do NOT let a gap open up! If you want a shot at winning, you must never be running with your nose in the wind. Glue yourself to the back of the Kenyans. If you are running one of the first 3 legs and think you can pass them, DON'T! You'll screw whoever you are handing the baton off to. Just stay right on their heels. You don't pass them until 5950 meters into the race." USA should run their fastest guy first to ensure they stay right on them. Once the gap opens it's over.

    If Kenya is smart, run Kiprop first and have him totally blitz the first 800, opening up an insurmountable gap. Game over at that point, but Kenya usually runs completely stupid so they'll probably put him last.

    This is the most nauseously awful attempt at analysis I've read in awhile. You aren't really saying anything. "Don't get gapped" - real top level stuff
  • rcs
    6 years ago 05/25/2014 12:53am CDT
    re: Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
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    Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:
    sit behind the lead Kenyan and put out the equivalent of about 1.25 seconds less energy per lap

    No.

    Just no.
  • scr
    6 years ago 05/25/2014 1:20am CDT
    re: rcs
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    rcs wrote:

    Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:
    sit behind the lead Kenyan and put out the equivalent of about 1.25 seconds less energy per lap

    No.

    Just no.

    so, brighter than you dude, how much does drafting help per lap?
  • Seyta
    registered
    6 years ago 05/25/2014 1:34am CDT
    re: Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
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    Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:

    Yes, they are clearly faster if you add up all of their SB's or PB's. However, those were achieved while racing in a pack. None of them got a PB or SB by leading wire to wire. If they take the lead immediately, someone who is currently in shape to run about 4-6 seconds slower can hang with them if they don't let the gap open up.

    Drafting is huge. If the other teams, such as USA are smart, they will tell their guys "Do NOT let a gap open up! If you want a shot at winning, you must never be running with your nose in the wind. Glue yourself to the back of the Kenyans. If you are running one of the first 3 legs and think you can pass them, DON'T! You'll screw whoever you are handing the baton off to. Just stay right on their heels. You don't pass them until 5950 meters into the race." USA should run their fastest guy first to ensure they stay right on them. Once the gap opens it's over.

    If Kenya is smart, run Kiprop first and have him totally blitz the first 800, opening up an insurmountable gap. Game over at that point, but Kenya usually runs completely stupid so they'll probably put him last.

    Actually, the smarter thing is to NOT run Kiprop first.

    Let's say the Kenyans run one of their other guys first. Even if he gets drafted off of and loses the lead in the last 100-200m, the result is another 3:29-3:30 Kenyan who now has a rabbit. The second Kenyan uses the lead runner as a rabbit for 2-2.5 laps, and then crushes him, which shouldn't be particularly difficult, considering no other runners in the field running Leg 2 should have any abilities even comparable to 3:29.

    At that point, the necessary gap will be present, and the Kenyans glide to victory. Alternatively, if the necessary gap isn't made, then the runners just stay together until the final leg. At that point, you throw in Kiprop, and it's victory.

    Alternatively, the Kenyans can simply let someone else lead and cover each move that's made during the race, which really shouldn't be hard for 3:30 guys running against 3:34 guys. And of course, at the end, you just have a 1500m race with Kiprop running for the Kenyan team.
  • Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
    6 years ago 05/25/2014 2:08am CDT
    re: Seyta
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    Seyta wrote:

    Actually, the smarter thing is to NOT run Kiprop first.

    Let's say the Kenyans run one of their other guys first. Even if he gets drafted off of and loses the lead in the last 100-200m, the result is another 3:29-3:30 Kenyan who now has a rabbit. The second Kenyan uses the lead runner as a rabbit for 2-2.5 laps, and then crushes him, which shouldn't be particularly difficult, considering no other runners in the field running Leg 2 should have any abilities even comparable to 3:29.

    At that point, the necessary gap will be present, and the Kenyans glide to victory. Alternatively, if the necessary gap isn't made, then the runners just stay together until the final leg. At that point, you throw in Kiprop, and it's victory.

    Alternatively, the Kenyans can simply let someone else lead and cover each move that's made during the race, which really shouldn't be hard for 3:30 guys running against 3:34 guys. And of course, at the end, you just have a 1500m race with Kiprop running for the Kenyan team.

    Who is stupid enough to run 100% if they have a Kenyan sitting on them? Of course the answer to that is probably a lot of elite athletes considering runners aren't the most tactically astute bunch. You have to slow way down if a Kenyan is sitting on you. You have to force the Kenyans to lead this. There is no other way, outside of them falling, dropping the baton, etc.

    If you are the Kenyan coach and want the race to be even at the last hand off and leave it up to Kip, that's very dangerous. When is the last time he led a race wire-to-wire? And what did he run? I doubt he could break 3:32 in this race without ever having a rabbit or pack to draft. Sub 3:32 is phenomenal without any drafting.
  • ventolin^3
    registered
    6 years ago 05/25/2014 2:36am CDT
    re: Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
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    there is a $50k bonus for a wr & their women got it yesterday

    there is no way that the men are going to amble around to a win - $50k bonus is too much to throw away

    as for solo 1500, fastest i believe is still bayi's 3'32.16wr from '74

    it's about time that gets removed, even if it takes a flying 1500 which we may need to add ~ 1/2s
  • LM
    registered
    6 years ago 05/25/2014 2:38am CDT
    re: Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
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    Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:

    Running Solo wrote:

    Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:
    ...assume none of the Kenyans can run faster than 3:34 solo, which means the US men could theoretically stay very close.

    And which U.S. men run 3:34 solo?


    They don't have to run 3:34 solo, they sit behind the lead Kenyan and put out the equivalent of about 1.25 seconds less energy per lap compared to not drafting at all.

    3:34 leading the entire way is very difficult.


    Not for a 3:27 guy
  • LM
    registered
    6 years ago 05/25/2014 2:43am CDT
    re: Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
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    Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:

    Seyta wrote:

    Actually, the smarter thing is to NOT run Kiprop first.

    Let's say the Kenyans run one of their other guys first. Even if he gets drafted off of and loses the lead in the last 100-200m, the result is another 3:29-3:30 Kenyan who now has a rabbit. The second Kenyan uses the lead runner as a rabbit for 2-2.5 laps, and then crushes him, which shouldn't be particularly difficult, considering no other runners in the field running Leg 2 should have any abilities even comparable to 3:29.

    At that point, the necessary gap will be present, and the Kenyans glide to victory. Alternatively, if the necessary gap isn't made, then the runners just stay together until the final leg. At that point, you throw in Kiprop, and it's victory.

    Alternatively, the Kenyans can simply let someone else lead and cover each move that's made during the race, which really shouldn't be hard for 3:30 guys running against 3:34 guys. And of course, at the end, you just have a 1500m race with Kiprop running for the Kenyan team.

    Who is stupid enough to run 100% if they have a Kenyan sitting on them? Of course the answer to that is probably a lot of elite athletes considering runners aren't the most tactically astute bunch. You have to slow way down if a Kenyan is sitting on you. You have to force the Kenyans to lead this. There is no other way, outside of them falling, dropping the baton, etc.

    If you are the Kenyan coach and want the race to be even at the last hand off and leave it up to Kip, that's very dangerous. When is the last time he led a race wire-to-wire? And what did he run? I doubt he could break 3:32 in this race without ever having a rabbit or pack to draft. Sub 3:32 is phenomenal without any drafting.


    How is it dangerous in anyway. Kiprop doesn't even have to lead if he doesn't have a gap. He can just cruise 2:55 or so and kick a 37 or 38 and win easy.

    I think you are really underestimating how good Kiprop is.
  • Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
    6 years ago 05/25/2014 3:26am CDT
    re: LM
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    LM wrote:

    How is it dangerous in anyway. Kiprop doesn't even have to lead if he doesn't have a gap. He can just cruise 2:55 or so and kick a 37 or 38 and win easy.

    I think you are really underestimating how good Kiprop is.

    F me.

    Of course Kenya is the heavy favorite. I'm betting on them to win. Kiprop is one of the best ever. I'm aware of that.

    What makes you think he's just going to cruise to a 3:32, though? You think someone is foolish enough to run 2:55 through 1200 with him sitting right behind them? God I really hope not. That would be embarrassing.

    Again, I fully expect Kenya to win. It's their race to lose. But it's not as simple as 4 guys going out and running 3:30 and blowing the other countries apart. They can't run that fast without a pack breaking the wind for them the first 1200 or so meters.

    This is a time trial with one country versus ALL the other countries. Nobody will run fast if a Kenyan is on their heels, unless it's in the last 200 meters or they are complete idiots. So, if somehow Kiprop does not have a massive lead, and gets the baton last, the other countries should literally jog if Kiprop refuses to lead. Then it comes down to everybody racing the last 300 meters. Is Kiprop the fastest 300 meter runner out there? Probably not.

    My guess is Kenya gets out to a sizeable lead within the first 800 meters. They are not stupid and must realize the sooner they create space the better. And the other countries probably don't quite understand how different an event like this is from a typical 1500, so are already defeated mentally. I'm only hoping the USA gets that it's not so cut and dry when it comes to a relay like this. It's hard for a rabbit to win. Although, if they're racing a bunch of turtles...
  • Bad Wigins
    registered
    6 years ago 05/25/2014 4:58am CDT
    re: Crazy Huge Base + Drugs
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    The US will be lucky to beat Ethiopia let alone Kenya. They may have trouble with Bahrain which is Kenyans + Ramzi.