Efrainson vs. Baxter vs. Maxwell vs. Knights at Arcadia

if only the cain train were there to make the pain rain.

Efraimason's coach has said "The Kim Mortensen record? I think for sure (it's in play). Alexa is more fit than she was when she ran nine flat". He also said "she's getting more comfortable with that type of front-running" (at NB Indoor Nationals).

Ppossibly the best chance for the other girls to beat Efraimson is to let Efraimson get tired by leading the race while chasing the record. Efraimson tired at the indoor National mile race. She's fortunate Cranny and Anna Maxwell weren't in that race.

Efraimson's weakness may be a poor sense of pacing when she has to do it herself. Tactical moves by the other girls may be OK in a 5000 meter race, but 3200 meters is a little short and Efraimson is too good.

But that's exactly what I'm saying - make the move when she starts to falter (falls off pace). I'm not saying someone should take it out hard from the gun and try to run away from her. I'm saying make the move in the middle of the race when she's struggling (e.g., somewhere in laps 4-6, likely 5 or 6). Waiting for the final 200m isn't going to cut it.

For example, let's say this is the hypothetical splits for Efraimson during the race...

Opening lap in ~70

800m in ~2:24

1200m in ~3:40

1600m in ~4:56

2000m in ~6:13

2400m in ~7:30

2800m in ~8:47

3200m in ~9:58

(note: in this scenario, she's gunning for the record but struggles to maintain pace through the middle of the race, and like most runners starts off a bit aggressively but since it's Efraimson she also closes well).

Now, if you're one of her competitors, where do you make your move? Wait until the last lap when she realizes she has more left and unleashes her kick? Or do you attack on lap 4/5/6/7 when she's settled into running ~77's? And how long is it going to take you to break her and create a big enough gap to escape her kick?

Starting your move on lap 7 probably isn't going to give you enough space. So you'll probably have to make your move during lap 6 at the latest, or better yet during lap 5.

I agree.

It would be dumb to go there and run slow.

Just in case there are some folks who were not aware, there will be a live webcast of the entire Arcadia meet, beginning tonight on runnerspace.

http://live.arcadiainvitational.org.s3-website-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/live.html

The girls 3200 invitational will be Sat, 8:40 PM, followed by the boys 3200 invitational.

The girls/boys mile invitational will be held earlier at 5:50 pm.

thanks for the link. I am going to take advantage of it.

Immortal Lobster wrote:

A couple of things to consider

Alexa and cranny have a 2:06.50 PR each however cranny set it this winter and efriamson set it last year. Cranny is not a slowpoke kick wise and even scalped hannah meier a 2:06/4:40 girl herself in the final 200 last year during some indoor champs.

However even if they are the same speed, alexa has the better kick/acceleration

FTR I would guess Alexa has 2:03 high 2:04 low speed with cranny having mid high 205 speed baxter hasnt run an 800 in a while but if she time trialed she could probably run sub 2:08.

If it comes down to a kick i'd have these 3 in that order as I listed them because they all have the best speed/endurance combinations of the group.

Baxter could run a sub 2:08 800m in a time trial??? Wow, I don't see it - please take me through the reasoning that supports that claim.

Nobody in this race can beat Efraimson at this distance. Baxter's future is in the 10K and on the road. Maxwell is great, but not at Efraimson's level in any event. Cranny would have a great shot at beating her. Beat her last year in a 1500 and might have had a shot at NXN if she had known Efraimson was coming. Said in her interview afterwards that she thought Efraimson was dropped.

If she is in better shape than 9:00 for 3K, no way she doesn't destroy Mortenson's record. Anyone who goes with her is in for serious pain.

There was talk last night that Baxter has a bit of a niggle and will be sitting this one out.

v6 wrote:

Baxter's future is in the 10K and on the road.

Based on what? Did she say that's what she wants to do?

uhbu wrote:

v6 wrote:

Baxter's future is in the 10K and on the road.

Based on what? Did she say that's what she wants to do?

Based on her past results and physiological makeup. Unless she wants to put on 5 pounds of muscle, she will continually get better versus others as she moves up. The real money is in the marathon anyway, she's lucky.

Just talked to Baxter. She's out with an injury.

MIC ITW wrote:

uhbu wrote:

Based on what? Did she say that's what she wants to do?

Based on her past results and physiological makeup. Unless she wants to put on 5 pounds of muscle, she will continually get better versus others as she moves up. The real money is in the marathon anyway, she's lucky.

5 lbs of muscle based on what? How did you arrive at that number? Why not just more speed training? She's not going to do any better at higher distances just by moving up. Dibaba is a sub 4 1500m runner.

5 lbs of muscle based on what? How did you arrive at that number? Why not just more speed training? She's not going to do any better at higher distances just by moving up. Dibaba is a sub 4 1500m runner.

Well she isn't even beating the other high schoolers in the 5K, and her 3200/2-mile times are not nearly as good as her XC performances, and as it goes down it gets worse. It definitely seems like she gets better as the distance gets longer.

She should worry about fellow high school girls before she worries about Dibaba.

I only watch/pay attention to girls running if there is someone who is at least moderately attractive in the race, since this clearly isn't the case in this instance, I cannot be bothered.

DedicatedRunner wrote:

there will be a live webcast of the entire Arcadia meet, beginning tonight on runnerspace.

http://live.arcadiainvitational.org.s3-website-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/live.html

5:41 PM #5 Women 1 Mile Run Seeded Finals

5:49 PM #6 Women 1 Mile Run Invitational Finals

5:56 PM #7 Men 1 Mile Run Seeded Finals

6:04 PM #8 Men 1 Mile Run Invitational Finals

6:44 PM #17 Men 800 Meter Run Invitational Finals

6:50 PM #18 Women 800 Meter Run Invitational Finals

7:52 PM #28 Women 3200 Meter Run Seeded Finals

8:06 PM #29 Men 3200 Meter Run Seeded Finals

8:40 PM #34 Women 3200 Meter Run Invitational Finals

8:55 PM #35 Men 3200 Meter Run Invitational Finals

The video feed is quite terrible.

I'm sorry. Did j miss where she lost a 5k race, or are you saying this because other girls have run faster this year? Because that is not a valid argument.

v6 wrote:

5 lbs of muscle based on what? How did you arrive at that number? Why not just more speed training? She's not going to do any better at higher distances just by moving up. Dibaba is a sub 4 1500m runner.

Well she isn't even beating the other high schoolers in the 5K, and her 3200/2-mile times are not nearly as good as her XC performances, and as it goes down it gets worse. It definitely seems like she gets better as the distance gets longer.

She should worry about fellow high school girls before she worries about Dibaba.