The State of US HS Distance Running

what about the girls?

It's almost impossible to tell. Some of these guys are going to be great on the collegiate scene, some have already had their big jumps, others will lose interest.

It's ridiculous to look at freshmen. McGorty, Leingang, and Saarel were not even close to being under 16 as freshmen. Cheserek is an anomaly and we don't have freshman times for him.

The sophomore class is the most promising, in my opinion. Rocha and Tamagno are the real deal, but they're still so young. Moussa from Arcadia was insanely good in high school but stagnated on the collegiate scene. Was it big mileage or simply a mature body? Who knows (that's not to say that Moussa still isn't extremely good, but he's not top-20 at NCAAs or anything). I think Tamagno is only doing about 55 mpw this season, still looks relatively young, and has a crapload of talent. Check out his xc progression from last year, remembering that he ran a 4:09 last year off those times.

The junior class is good. Maton has had great improvement year to year and could get footlocker as a junior, so I'd peg him to compete well in college, though I don't know his mileage. Tanner Anderson and Conner Mantz are also excellent. Both have improved a lot year to year, and neither does much more than 60 miles a week. Armstrong and Dressel have so much talent, but I worry that big mileage is going to make them stagnate early. Armstrong hasn't PRed in the 3200 since freshman year, for instance, although a 14:28 sophomore year seems to be much better.

The seniors seem a bit weak this year. Not sure whether Hardy will keep interest in college, I don't know enough about Cerake to make predictions, and I feel like Templeton is plateauing a bit. Haney is my only confident prediction. Oregon is an excellent program, and he's improved steadily off of an excellent freshman year. I don't think he'll go sub-4 this year, but he'll be close to say the least.

So basically, the kids that steadily improve at

...

Not sure why it keeps cutting me off. The kids who are running less than 70 miles a week in high school and are this good are a safe bet to improve in college. Not saying that you can't improve in college if you're doing 100 miles a week in high school, but come on, there's not much you can do to increase training and therefore improvement from what is already such a high level of training.

uhhhhh wrote:

what about the girls?

Simply the best ever. No further discussion needed.

The state of high school running is excellent. Times are faster and deeper than ever before. Last year 40 guys broke 9:00 for 3,200 and 40 guys broke 4:10 for 1,600. Unprecedented. Don't let any jackwagons on letsrun say "oh there's no big names recently." Blake Haney ran the equivalent of a 4:02 mile as a junior. Tanner Anderson and Elijah Armstrong ran 14:28 as a sophomore. There are tons more I could list off.

Look at last year! Saarel, McGorty, Cheserek, Arroyo, Wynne, Montoya, all under 4:05. Ridiculous power at the top, while the depth behind them improves exponentially.

Watch the Arcadia 3,200 in April. You will see what I am talking about.

Templeton is plateauing?! What?!

A couple of weeks ago he took down his 3200 PR during freaking xc season, going to 8:59 to 8:54 and winning by 20 seconds. And it was a freaking time trial.

He ran 14:54 at FLS last year for 3rd butt his year won in 14:36.

Plateau?!

You can talk about all the sub-9's at Arcadia that you want. How is it translating to future success at pro level?

It's going on ten years since Galen Rupp graduated from high school in 2004. Since then, who are the significant American male distance runners (3000m through marathon) that the high schools have produced?

Derrick? Jager? Then a step down to a Ben True or a Ryan Hill? Am I missing anybody really worth talking about?

That's pretty thin stuff. The reason people keep obsessing about Webb, Ritz and Hall (all on the wrong side of 30 years old) is that the next generation hasn't replaced them.

Good luck to this year's freshman NCAA class and same to those still in HS. But there's nothing to trumpet just yet.

I stand utterly corrected. I apologize, I thought I'd seen results that suggested otherwise. Luckily I was mistaken.

Ummm ever heard the names of Cheserek or Futsum?

Letsrunners are such Debbie Downers

Maton is one to watch. Young frame, still plenty of upside. He has shown significant improvement yoy and is arguably the top cc runner this year. as a benchmark missed rupp's state championship course record as a junior by 2 seconds. also has a unique pedigree with both parents ncaa d1 champions. Mother in CC and Dad indoor 800M.