Down goes the Dow

Another 'bear market is not over' prediction from 11/22

Not clear to me if talking about SP500 or Dow but in any case advising people to wait for a downdraft to get lower prices was a bad idea. SPX is up 12% from this tweet and never had a big drawdown.

Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
B of A’s Hartnett trots it out again:
“.. nibble at $SPX 36k, bite at 33k, gorge at 30k, targeting Big Low in March/April/May.”

11/4/2022

Year to date

Tech +32%

SP500 +10.3%

Equal-weighted SP500: 0%

Value: -3%

It's remarkable and horrifying at the same time. Has to be virtually unprecedented in scope. Maybe during the tech bubble in the 90s it was similar. But as they say, when something is unsustainable it ends. As will this.

The difference is that the tech uptick is on the heels of a massive downturn (2022) to that sector, so the rebound is not so surprising, really.

Speaking of astounding, the tech company AI that i was mentioning these last few weeks had a massive downturn today. I was able to get out at just above breakeven, selling it all before going into the red, and a long way from what it was worth at the peak. Now down 25% on the day. Wonder if Igy is shorting it.

Here's none other than Jaime Dimon predicting an economic hurricane that never arrived. He was very scared in June 2022, predicting all kinds of misery, incl $150+ oil. Never happened, although to be fair we did have a financial crisis, which was novel.

Note that many, including Bill Ackman, think Dimon should and will run for prez. Maybe he'd bet better at that than economic predictions!

"I said there were storm clouds. But I'm going to change it. It’s a hurricane," he said during a conference hosted by AllianceBernstein Holdings. "Right now it’s kind of sunny, things are doing fine, everyone thinks the Fed can handle it. That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We don’t know if it’s a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself."

There are two main issues that Dimon said are worrying him: The Federal Reserve moving to unwind its $8.9 trillion balance sheet, deploying a less-known tool known as quantitative tightening that will further tighten credit for U.S. households as officials try to tame red-hot inflation.
The rundown of the Fed's portfolio is poised to begin on Wednesday at an initial combined monthly pace of $47.5 billion. The Fed will increase the runoff rate to $95 billion by September, putting the central bank on track to reduce its balance sheet by about $3 trillion over the next three years.
"We’ve never had QT like this, so you’re looking at something you could be writing history books on for 50 years," Dimon said.

The second matter weighing on Dimon is the Russian-Ukraine war and its effect on the price of commodities like food and oil. The bank CEO said that oil could hit $150 or $175 a barrel as a result of the conflict, which began in late February. Brent crude, the benchmark, is currently selling for $116 a barrel.

foxbusiness.com

Jamie Dimon warns of an economic 'hurricane' coming: 'Brace yourself'

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon ramped up his economic warning on Wednesday, predicting a coming economic "hurricane" as the Federal Reserve battles inflation.

Link:www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jamie-dimo...

good call selling it- it appears to be down another 20% in the premarket.

I hope that is a single-company problem and not industry-wide.

In other news, HSGFX is back to a 50% draw down since all time high; 9/17/2008!

Checked my numbers over from yesterday and actually lost a little, so I traded a bit this morning on the uptick and managed to claw it back. Out now and leaving it at that, essentially flat overall.

Cleveland Fed thinks CPI is running at just 2.9% now.

Although core numbers are more like 5%

hoping that the headline number will let the fed relax a bit.

Bloomberg is constantly stroking that guy like he's some kind of oracle, but from what I can tell he's not much better at predicting things than Jim Cramer, or anybody else really.

Is there a worse performing fund? That’s incredible.

Doing a little half year check on the above.

Today on June 1, the S&P 500 sits at this very moment at 4223.74. Not only have we not gotten closer to the 3,000 that Igy predicted, we have gone UP from that point. (S&P 500 was at about 3991 when Igy decided we needed to bookmark this).

Now, just to be clear here...I haven't predicted ANYTHING other than the absence of the constant doom that Igy predicts. Igy is the one who made the prediction and went so far as to ask for this discussion to be bookmarked. So, ok. Things clearly hadn't "ended" as Iggy said as the S&P 500 has gone UP since he said that. We shall see what the rest of the year brings.

I suppose we're not QUITE halfway.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2023 (with 99% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 78% of S&P 500 companies has reported a positive EPS surprise and 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

The S&P 500 is up 9.94% YTD.

Nasdaq up over 25% YTD.

QQQ up over 32% YTD

I'm guessing Flagpole is beating the SP500 this year. Because I believe he has a tech-heavy portfolio. Which is probably why he fell behind in 2022.

Correct, FP?

Ok, but Igy was focused on the S&P 500 which is why I commented on that.

We've discussed this before, and NO, I am not tech heavy. To wit, the NASDAQ so far YTD is up over 25%. I am up only 12.25% YTD. Yes, I have a lot of tech stocks, but I have a lot of stocks in just about every sector, every kind shape and form.

Now, my milestone I typically go by is how am I doing against the Dow, and today YTD, the Dow is flat, and I'm up 12.25%. Coincidentally, IF I had an equal mix of tech and dividend stocks, I would be right about where I am today YTD. But, my mix isn't that simple. I have investments everywhere. So, not sure why you WANT be to be tech heavy, but I'm just not.