My typical lunch at D'Angelos just went from $10.90 to $13.05.
We have seen similar increases here. I believe we are only starting to see the seepage of higher labor costs, something that was a tailwind for a decade.
The price of fuel is the biggest contributor to these price increases. Maybe we need more electric trucks. 😂
ok with the major understanding that whatever I say on this means very little and is no more significant than rock paper scissors, I will go on actual record saying that the decline is winding up. We are near a bottom. this is a total washout and what we get after total washouts is a rebound. Stocks have fallen too much and the bad news is priced in.
somethign like half the SP500 is at a 52 week low. unless this is the great financial crisis all over again, this is about as bad as it gets.
there, I said it. And before I typed it I bought a large piece of the total market index.
This was me, on June 16, 2022
with a rare short term market prediction.
On June 16 the SP500 closed at 3,666 and I said we were at or near the bottom.
Actually that was the very day of the summer lows. Bravo, Agip.
The market did fall 2% more at its October low. So I was wrong in that sense.
Now we are a solid 8% above my June call of the bottom.
I'll give myself 85% credit on this one...predicting the very day of a short term bottom is pretty good, and we are in fact materially higher today. But technically we did go lower a few months after my call, so no full credit.
For those keeping score, the VIX hit 34.82 that day and was around 35 for a few days. That is usually a good buy signal and it was again this time.
A revised estimate of 3Q GDP arrived today: up to +2.9% (first version was +2.6%)
And GDP Now has us growing at +4.3% in the 4Q.
Someone want to tell me why corporate profits are in trouble with this kind of growth?
(all this is after inflation of course)
Couple of things at work here: temporary boost provided by depletion of the SPR that will be going away and a couple other temporary measures enacted by the Dems to win the midterms that will be going away. War profiteering. It is an undeniable truth that the US profits off of the war in Ukraine.
A revised estimate of 3Q GDP arrived today: up to +2.9% (first version was +2.6%)
And GDP Now has us growing at +4.3% in the 4Q.
Someone want to tell me why corporate profits are in trouble with this kind of growth?
(all this is after inflation of course)
Couple of things at work here: temporary boost provided by depletion of the SPR that will be going away and a couple other temporary measures enacted by the Dems to win the midterms that will be going away. War profiteering. It is an undeniable truth that the US profits off of the war in Ukraine.
I think the biggest piece is that many 2023 orders were brought forward into 2022 because businesses have been burned by supply chain issues. So they ordered early.
So it's possible that 2023 growth will be lacking because much of it is in 2022 instead.
it's just weird though, how strong growth is now and how economist see it hitting a wall in...6 weeks or so. I don't understand it. Maybe someone here does.
I am positive on all my EM CEFs with EMD up 10% before I receive my 1% dividend in the morning. I would assume Maserati is out of his Dollar trade. iLOL…..
I think everyone knows this already...inflation is starting to be the old story...the new story will be recession or no recession in 2023.
Bigger news will be PCE data tomorrow.
Given the good news on inflation lately in the US and Europe, I'd expect tomorrow's number to be pretty good. Could get a 4 handle on core PCE....that might get some attention.
Just now:
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed Wednesday that smaller interest rate increases are likely ahead and could start in December. But he cautioned that monetary policy is likely to stay restrictive for some time until real signs of progress emerge on inflation. “We will stay the course until the job is done,” he said during a speech in Washington, D.C. at the Brookings Institution.
We have seen similar increases here. I believe we are only starting to see the seepage of higher labor costs, something that was a tailwind for a decade.
The price of fuel is the biggest contributor to these price increases. Maybe we need more electric trucks. 😂
Seems the cost of lettuce doubled in the blink of an eye
Where did all the lettuce go? Price of lettuce triples as heat wave wipes out crops in California
eh we'll see if that continues. but interesting that those are the ones attracting money when there's news that the Fed is less of a factor. Could be a view into the future.
my base case is still 'buy stocks that pay dividends so you get paid to wait.' I don't see this market healing and heading to new highs right away. Nice to count on dividend checks every quarter.
biggest question to me is whether to own overseas stocks now that the dollar as rolled over and they are starting to outperform the US. I did buy some emerging today.
Generally takes me a week to add of lose that much based on my current investments.
Bought back the shorts I sold in recent days. The game goes on.
Frustrating.
Betting vs. the market these past few months has largely paid off except for the day the inflation report came out -- cost me $25k -- and today's speech ($11k). Now down $10k on this bet
Before Powell spoke on Wapner’s Halftime Report the chorus of money managers was “please Jay save us.” Doubt Jay has little influence on where we end up.
eh we'll see if that continues. but interesting that those are the ones attracting money when there's news that the Fed is less of a factor. Could be a view into the future.
my base case is still 'buy stocks that pay dividends so you get paid to wait.' I don't see this market healing and heading to new highs right away. Nice to count on dividend checks every quarter.
biggest question to me is whether to own overseas stocks now that the dollar as rolled over and they areI starting to outperform the US. I did buy some emerging today.
I would think EM does quite a bit better than US over the next decade. That said, I am continuing to reinvest dividends on my EM debt CEFs on the belief global macron will be challenged, value good but likely to get better.
eh we'll see if that continues. but interesting that those are the ones attracting money when there's news that the Fed is less of a factor. Could be a view into the future.
my base case is still 'buy stocks that pay dividends so you get paid to wait.' I don't see this market healing and heading to new highs right away. Nice to count on dividend checks every quarter.
biggest question to me is whether to own overseas stocks now that the dollar as rolled over and they are starting to outperform the US. I did buy some emerging today.
EM has been historically such a laggard, i don't have it in me to commit, though you could well be right.
Nibbled today on some SCHD as a dividend paying play, and have built a small position over the last few weeks.
Feeling better about buying back some of the tech ETF I lightened up on a few weeks ago, and I am in the process of doing just that.
eh we'll see if that continues. but interesting that those are the ones attracting money when there's news that the Fed is less of a factor. Could be a view into the future.
my base case is still 'buy stocks that pay dividends so you get paid to wait.' I don't see this market healing and heading to new highs right away. Nice to count on dividend checks every quarter.
biggest question to me is whether to own overseas stocks now that the dollar as rolled over and they are starting to outperform the US. I did buy some emerging today.
EM has been historically such a laggard, i don't have it in me to commit, though you could well be right.
Nibbled today on some SCHD as a dividend paying play, and have built a small position over the last few weeks.
Feeling better about buying back some of the tech ETF I lightened up on a few weeks ago, and I am in the process of doing just that.
Lots going on these days.
what do they say....that every time you buy something you should feel terrified.
meaning it should be such an out of favor investment that few want to own it.
of course we could have said the same thing over the past years even as emerging has done nothing or worse than nothing.