I know you follow covid data so maybe we can use that as a logical proxy.
Consider the daily reported cases for [insert jurisdiction of interest here]. Today we see 83 cases after seeing 85 yesterday.
Do these tow data points, on their own, tell us that cases are declining? No. They tell us that the number today is lower than the number yesterday. That MAY be a result of (and indication of) a declining trend. But with only two data points, it's impossible to tell the trend from uncertainty / noise.
The same principal applies here. The uncertainty in any given single-month inflation number cannot be ignored. Two data points are insufficient to define a trend with any kind of confidence. They agree with your hypothesis, but are not a basis to make any reasonable interpretations.
I'm not trying to be disagreeable for the sake of it; I'm trying to help you (and others) understand how to reason properly with numbers, which is not an innate talent most of us have.
Or, you can tell me to go fack off, and I will happily do so...
do you agree, yes or no: today's inflation report totally contradicts the idea that inflation is easing.
Just yes or no. That's all we're fighting about here. Does today's data totally blow out of the water the case that inflation is easing.
My biggest holding is Tesla (I sold a bunch at $830 and bought most back when it went to $800) is down 8.25%. In one day.
Luckily I got out of bitcoin last week completely -- down over 5% today.
Two oil stocks that were way up earlier today after having cratered on Monday have given away half their early gains.
NASDAQ down 3% and S+P down over 1.3%.
The beating continues.
if it makes you feel any better:
2019: tech up 49%
2020: tech up 46%
2021: tech up 30%
2022 to date: tech down 26%
can't have one without the other I suppose.
“The math of percentages shows that as losses get larger, the return necessary to recover to break-even increases at a much faster rate. A loss of 10 percent necessitates an 11 percent gain to recover. Increase that loss to 25 percent and it takes a 33 percent gain to get back to break-even. A 50 percent loss requires a 100 percent gain to recover and an 80 percent loss necessitates 500 percent in gains to get back to where the investment value started.”
“The math of percentages shows that as losses get larger, the return necessary to recover to break-even increases at a much faster rate. A loss of 10 percent necessitates an 11 percent gain to recover. Increase that loss to 25 percent and it takes a 33 percent gain to get back to break-even. A 50 percent loss requires a 100 percent gain to recover and an 80 percent loss necessitates 500 percent in gains to get back to where the investment value started.”
“The math of percentages shows that as losses get larger, the return necessary to recover to break-even increases at a much faster rate. A loss of 10 percent necessitates an 11 percent gain to recover. Increase that loss to 25 percent and it takes a 33 percent gain to get back to break-even. A 50 percent loss requires a 100 percent gain to recover and an 80 percent loss necessitates 500 percent in gains to get back to where the investment value started.”
“The math of percentages shows that as losses get larger, the return necessary to recover to break-even increases at a much faster rate. A loss of 10 percent necessitates an 11 percent gain to recover. Increase that loss to 25 percent and it takes a 33 percent gain to get back to break-even. A 50 percent loss requires a 100 percent gain to recover and an 80 percent loss necessitates 500 percent in gains to get back to where the investment value started.”
Source: Zachs
Speaking of such, Bitcoin $28,882.
On CNBC former Dallas Fed Governor Richard Fisher says CPI housing component OER understates cost by over 1.7%. Therefore actual inflation running at least 10%.
“The math of percentages shows that as losses get larger, the return necessary to recover to break-even increases at a much faster rate. A loss of 10 percent necessitates an 11 percent gain to recover. Increase that loss to 25 percent and it takes a 33 percent gain to get back to break-even. A 50 percent loss requires a 100 percent gain to recover and an 80 percent loss necessitates 500 percent in gains to get back to where the investment value started.”
Source: Zachs
Yep.
Lose 50% of your investment, you need to earn 100% to get back to even
On CNBC former Dallas Fed Governor Richard Fisher says CPI housing component OER understates cost by over 1.7%. Therefore actual inflation running at least 10%.
They always understate inflation.
Anyone buying food or gas can tell you inflation is way more than 8% per year.
On CNBC former Dallas Fed Governor Richard Fisher says CPI housing component OER understates cost by over 1.7%. Therefore actual inflation running at least 10%.
They always understate inflation.
Anyone buying food or gas can tell you inflation is way more than 8% per year.
As if their foolish policies have no end, for some reason these fools are intent on burning more national treasure on another war.
I won't have a fresh pile of cash until September and October, assuming I'm not laid off in this Biden Recession. I'm not planning to sell any of my tumbling stocks unless the upcoming housing crash comes sooner and more dramatically than I expect. If there were an easy way (not those bogus daily inverse ETFs) to short the housing market I would be building a position there.
“The math of percentages shows that as losses get larger, the return necessary to recover to break-even increases at a much faster rate. A loss of 10 percent necessitates an 11 percent gain to recover. Increase that loss to 25 percent and it takes a 33 percent gain to get back to break-even. A 50 percent loss requires a 100 percent gain to recover and an 80 percent loss necessitates 500 percent in gains to get back to where the investment value started.”
Source: Zachs
Yep.
Lose 50% of your investment, you need to earn 100% to get back to even
And most here discount that possibility too much. Likely is a move to 3,400, rest and rally, 2,200 in the fall. Then things will get interesting.
I won't have a fresh pile of cash until September and October, assuming I'm not laid off in this Biden Recession. I'm not planning to sell any of my tumbling stocks unless the upcoming housing crash comes sooner and more dramatically than I expect. If there were an easy way (not those bogus daily inverse ETFs) to short the housing market I would be building a position there.
