Down goes the Dow

Chopping around for now with a sentiment move either way on a moments notice.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

investing noob wrote:

Well if people said a month ago that SPY would be 442 today, they'd all be screaming crash. It doesn't feel bullish yet. Still holding 200 shares of SARK.

I would continue to monitor Bitcoin as a sentiment indicator. A bullish return to $45k or rollover under $30k, or continued chop $35k to $42k, or thereabouts.

Gee that would be a whole lot simpler than running those calculations you linked to yesterday from that physicist.

Thanks, Igy!

LOL.

Virgin Galactic: "I really don't get out much anymore, so...."

Updating Plato's Cave

I'm thinking of making my memes into NFTs.

SPY 2/28 440C? Pfft, way too expensive.

It's all about those lotto tickets baby - SPY 2/4 480C. All about getting that 10-bagger

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

Computer Geek wrote:

If you knew you can't buy and hold leveraged ETFs and make money, why would you suggest it? You're not following basic logic. I don't understand why this is so hard for you two to grasp. Comparing buying a major dip with margin at a 2.5% interest rate to leveraged ETFs is complete apples and oranges.

FWIW, I used this strategy in 2020 and had a 1 year return of over 70%. I bought in pretty close to the bottom though. Made more in one year with my investments than I had in the previous 5 combined since I "borrowed" money to buy the dip. I mean this objectively and with no intention of insult when I say you two seem blind to me. How this strategy works is like seeing your hand in front of your face.

https://i.imgflip.com/6370nv.jpg

I lol'd

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

Actually it was Racket and his buddies YOLO SPY 2/28 440 Calls ( vol 216614 ) .5 to 2.+; move over Meme stocks.

https://twitter.com/dhtoomey/status/1486824608863031296?cxt=HHwWgMC46dXGoaIpAAAA

Also re last Mon, this is where the big money plays.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJ9h6l0XMAUHEph?format=jpg&name=medium

Updating Plato's Cave

https://i.imgflip.com/6373p2.jpg

I'm thinking of making my memes into NFTs.

I'm pretty sure phase 2 of the Beanie Baby Effect is about to take place - i.e. a crash of epic proportions.

The fact that it's all pretty much fraudulent and just a drug money front is starting to become pretty mainstream

Prof. Racket wrote:

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

Actually it was Racket and his buddies YOLO SPY 2/28 440 Calls ( vol 216614 ) .5 to 2.+; move over Meme stocks.

https://twitter.com/dhtoomey/status/1486824608863031296?cxt=HHwWgMC46dXGoaIpAAAA

Also re last Mon, this is where the big money plays.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJ9h6l0XMAUHEph?format=jpg&name=medium

SPY 2/28 440C? Pfft, way too expensive.

It's all about those lotto tickets baby - SPY 2/4 480C. All about getting that 10-bagger

Was trading at 5 cents sometime during the day after opening at 50 cents; went up to $2.25. Now if Maser had traded this you know he would have bought at .05 and sold at $2.25.

Back to watching the grandkids, their movie is just about over.

Month one in the 'buy Agip an Alfa' savings program in the books.

Total saved this month out of $30,000 needed: $0.

Had to buy a new refrigerator instead. Bougie life has a downside.

This might take a while. Will hope for a better result in February.

One of youse is in Texas -

I'm reading volume on of Caro's biography of LBJ - amazing book.

Much of it is about how Texas was settled in the mid to late 19c and how that affected LBJ's upbringing.

He was in Blanco county, in the Hill Country west of Austin. Fascinating stuff on how settlers moved there, saw a ton of grass and greenery and thought they had found a new Mississippi Delta, free for the taking. But they found out later that the soil was only a few inches deep and there were frequent droughts. Did not turn into the Delta and left generations in some of the worst poverty in North America.

But that's not the whole story - much is about how Texas politics worked in the 1910-1930 zone. (hint: far dirtier than I could have expected) and how lefty Yankee FDR was able somehow to build support among of bunch of poor white people still smarting from the Civil War and instinctively loathing the Northeast and its money, banks, railroads and tariffs.

Such a different politics...when poor white people voted for government intervention to balance out the power of the rich. Doesn't exist right now, not on the surface anyway.

Highly recommended for anyone interested in Texas and political history. Or just biography.

Coached a lot of folks from the Hill Country of Texas. Drove the road criss crossing that region. Seems like a lifetime ago now, certainly a third of one.

My wife knows of the book, and said she may read it.

She was born near there.

Thx

Igy, how is the chair restoration coming along?

Mine just took a massive leap forward.

I dropped it off for a pro to do the re-caning.

It was taking me too long and it was starting to sink in that my caning work wasn't going to look real great anyways.

I feel so much better.

I did do all the reconstructive work on it (fabricated a part to replace the broken one), filled the nail holes, and refinished the effected areas. The guy who took it said i had done a really nice job.

He is this pretty cool dude, knew enough to tell me that the chair is from 1890 and is an "Eastlake" chair. I have to say, it's inspiring seeing someone who cares and perfects this kind of skills and knowledge, and I'm glad I took that route.

I can't wait to see that chair, spared from the dump, brought back to life in all it's charm and beauty.

Seattle,

I may end up doing the same. The weather turned colder this week, and I just put it off. I need to get on it, and tune up the lawn mower. I did some housework instead. The weather was overcast, damp, and low teens in the morning. Make me lazy.

Igy

Seattle,

Took the old cane off a couple of minutes ago. The technique used a little different than my instructions, with the cane feed thru holes rather than a notch on the rim. May have to do more reading before the next step.

The chair itself likely made by my wife’s grandfather. We have several known furniture pieces of his with the original design and measurements. This chair went with a writing table he made.

Igy

Igy, there are two types of caning, one is done string by string, fed through holes around the perimeter, and the other allows a pre-made pice to be laid in and the perimeter strip secures it. I think the one with the holes is more authentic, and the other is something of a shortcut.

The one i had was the ones with the holes and you string each strand one at a time, eventually weaving the later strands up and under the previous ones.

If the thing is old and original, it would probably be of that type with the individual holes drilled around the perimeter.

Good luck.

Interesting essay on what happens when the Fed raises rates.

The answer is that since 1976, stock market returns have been good when the Fed raises rates, with no down periods.

But

Added volatility and some very bad moments, like 1987's crash.

Also, low number of samples.

So I suppose the advice from this is to trade more...not to push high beta stocks too far - get some gains and then rebalance to cash or bonds because you will likely have a chance to buy cheaper.

Or just tell yourself there will be added volatility, take your losses and hang on for dear life.

The worry is that we are rising from 0% now...will that mean even more volatility? Or does it mean there is so much liquidity that you can raise rates to soak up some of that volatility and it won't draw much money out of the stock market? Earning 0.5% instead of 0.25% on your money won't make many people give up stocks. But it will lower the value of your stocks if you use a discounted cash flow model and own stocks with PEs in the 30s.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/01/how-do-stocks-perform-when-the-fed-raises-rates/