agip wrote:Year to Date
SARK +23
...
PTON -11
QCLN -13
ARKK -20
GME -28
"Year to date" is not even three weeks yet. Those are some pretty big swings!
agip wrote:Year to Date
SARK +23
...
PTON -11
QCLN -13
ARKK -20
GME -28
"Year to date" is not even three weeks yet. Those are some pretty big swings!
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
agip wrote:Year to Date
SARK +23
...
PTON -11
QCLN -13
ARKK -20
GME -28
"Year to date" is not even three weeks yet. Those are some pretty big swings!
stairway up, elevator down
agip wrote:
wondering wrote:
Being popular, or a fad, is far from the same as being over owned. Given than any equity has a finite amount of shares at any given time, you can say it is “fully owned”, but it is impossible for it to be “over owned”.
eh, disagree.
there are different kinds of ownership.
For example, GME was overowned by individual investors. That money has proven stickier than I thought, but still they have sold and the stock has dropped from 483 to 106 today.
Other stocks are over-owned by hedge funds and subject to the same sort of buying and selling, for the same reasons. Creating a 'rocking boat' phenomenon when hedge funds run in all together and run out together.
Those are examples of being 'overowned.' They don't have a steady diverse group of shareholders that buys and sells for different reasons. It's a bunch of the same people, trading on the same causes. Not great.
That makes sense. Thanks for the explanation.
China cutting rates. And they basically begged the US Federal Reserve to not raise rates.
Probably gonna be a rough year for them
Prof. Racket wrote:China cutting rates. And they basically begged the US Federal Reserve to not raise rates.
Yeah, I saw that. Not that it will move the world, but I read yesterday that the Bank of Canada is expected to move their rates upward by a quarter percent as early as next week, according to some prognosticators. That's several months earlier than recent consensus forecasts. We'll see....
I think I start buying tech today. I don't want to get too cute and wait to try to bottom-tick it. In pieces, not a big jump.
Down 11% is good enough for me to clear out some dead wood. I do wish the VIX had gone higher though.
agip wrote:
I think I start buying tech today. I don't want to get too cute and wait to try to bottom-tick it. In pieces, not a big jump.
Down 11% is good enough for me to clear out some dead wood. I do wish the VIX had gone higher though.
Just buying the same old Get Out of Jail Free Card.
seattle prattle wrote:
Maser wrote:
I made my money on it, got hood/lucky and sold at the top.
Funny enough, yesterday I was contemplating selling my bitcoin and putting it into gold or oil. Maybe tonight.
Sold mine yesterday.
Just seemed pointless, going nowhere for so long, and that's not really what a highly speculative MOMO play recipe for success. Plus, too little in there to make it worth the distraction.
Overall, it looks like I lost maybe 10 % or 20% this go around, which would normally have me concerned but doesn't amount to much in real terms, and very much offset by stock market returns.
Futures pointing up at this time, but boy have they been reversing often these last few days, so no telling.
LoL BTC up 1300 this morning.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
I think I start buying tech today. I don't want to get too cute and wait to try to bottom-tick it. In pieces, not a big jump.
Down 11% is good enough for me to clear out some dead wood. I do wish the VIX had gone higher though.
Just buying the same old Get Out of Jail Free Card.
22% per year for the last ten years is a heck of a get out of jail free card. No prison will hold me .
agip wrote:
Strange to see junk outperform quality bonds. Why does that keep happening?
Ummm... ever heard of duration?
LQD
Average effective duration - 9.66
Average effective maturity - 13.77
Average weighted coupon - 3.70
HYG
Average effective duration - 3.60
Average effective maturity - 4.01
Average weighted coupon - 5.48
E.g., take 2 noncallable bonds issued at par on the same date, same maturity date, but different coupons. The one with the higher coupon will have a lower duration. In the chart below; the Lead line is US 10 YR Treasury and the Ebony line is the duration if that note was issued at par.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IRDH#0Another factor to consider is default risk, esp for Junk bonds. Currently this is priced at historical lows when looking at the P.O.S. ( CCC or lower ) - Junk ( B ) spread.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=L2uERe cars; your 325 Xi must have been a 2006, 328 Xi was introduced in 2007. I know because I bought one. Also, my first car was a 1961 Corvair in 1967-68. Hand me down from my aunt.
eh, it's probably nothing. I wouldn't worry about a bunch of eco-warriors in the senate.
Politico:
Democrats in Congress are ramping up pressure on cryptocurrency firms to show that Bitcoin is worth the wattage, amid concerns that minting digital money has become an environmental disaster.
Scrutiny from lawmakers including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and the leadership of the House Energy and Commerce Committee is triggering lobbying on behalf of so-called crypto miners who are using an escalating amount of computing and electricity to extract valuable digital tokens from the blockchain.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Just buying the same old Get Out of Jail Free Card.
22% per year for the last ten years is a heck of a get out of jail free card. No prison will hold me .
Fed HAD your back.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
22% per year for the last ten years is a heck of a get out of jail free card. No prison will hold me .
Fed HAD your back.
If Fed has had his back - is he a fool to not take advantage of it? The Fed has his back - so effing what? Agip takes advantage of it and makes a killing!
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1484198629506125824?cxt=HHwWgMCs_cay95gpAAAAwondering wrote:
agip wrote:
eh, disagree.
there are different kinds of ownership.
For example, GME was overowned by individual investors. That money has proven stickier than I thought, but still they have sold and the stock has dropped from 483 to 106 today.
Other stocks are over-owned by hedge funds and subject to the same sort of buying and selling, for the same reasons. Creating a 'rocking boat' phenomenon when hedge funds run in all together and run out together.
Those are examples of being 'overowned.' They don't have a steady diverse group of shareholders that buys and sells for different reasons. It's a bunch of the same people, trading on the same causes. Not great.
That makes sense. Thanks for the explanation.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1484198629506125824?cxt=HHwWgMCs_cay95gpAAAAwondering wrote:
That makes sense. Thanks for the explanation.
the forward PE on the SP500 is now 21. The average for the last 25 years is 17.
price to book is 4.4. Average for the last 25 years is 3.0.
does that sound like a mega-historical bubble?
Not to me. High, sure. yes, high valuations.
but when corporate profits are rising 15% or more per year and interest rates are very low....megabubble? Nah.
That said, the mega tech monsters are quite expensive. I have been shunning market cap weighted tech funds for that reason. Valid question is how bad the perforance of the sp500 would be if the tech monsters underperformed. Could make indexing a curse.
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
agip wrote:
Strange to see junk outperform quality bonds. Why does that keep happening?
Ummm... ever heard of duration?
LQD
Average effective duration - 9.66
Average effective maturity - 13.77
Average weighted coupon - 3.70
HYG
Average effective duration - 3.60
Average effective maturity - 4.01
Average weighted coupon - 5.48
E.g., take 2 noncallable bonds issued at par on the same date, same maturity date, but different coupons. The one with the higher coupon will have a lower duration. In the chart below; the Lead line is US 10 YR Treasury and the Ebony line is the duration if that note was issued at par.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IRDH#0Another factor to consider is default risk, esp for Junk bonds. Currently this is priced at historical lows when looking at the P.O.S. ( CCC or lower ) - Junk ( B ) spread.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=L2uERe cars; your 325 Xi must have been a 2006, 328 Xi was introduced in 2007. I know because I bought one. Also, my first car was a 1961 Corvair in 1967-68. Hand me down from my aunt.
still thinking about this, thanks for it.
obviously the question is the dual determiner of performance: movement of interest rates and credit quality
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1484198629506125824?cxt=HHwWgMCs_cay95gpAAAAwondering wrote:
That makes sense. Thanks for the explanation.
This is why I believe Igy is actually, not jokingly retarded.
His agency and ability to reason has been completely supplanted by nothing more than a collection of hyperlinks to Twitter
Prof. Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1484198629506125824?cxt=HHwWgMCs_cay95gpAAAAThis is why I believe Igy is actually, not jokingly retarded.
His agency and ability to reason has been completely supplanted by nothing more than a collection of hyperlinks to Twitter
Opps, stumble, croak….
Not looking good.
Less than 3 weeks into the new year and S+P 500 down over 6%
A few days began well, but inevitably tanked.
Other days began bad and stayed so.
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