The timing is the question, the housing prices are outrageous. For example, in our area a $350,000 house five years ago is now $500,000. That is not normal. I believe like the stock market driven by large amounts of debt seeking a home, and low interest rates. I am assuming no V-shaped recovery, and a severe recession. Of course if the magic of the Fed and stimulus saves the inevitable pain, then it is postponed a few years. I just don’t see that outcome as likely.
Commercial real estate has been a bubble for some time. More so than residential. The system that feed the growth was the belief in a bond like proxy. Investors viewing it as above market income secured by property deed. Now that rents are in jeopardy the investment collapses under its own weight.
Again, looking from a purely valuation perspective I see the vulnerability. Of course you have plenty of posters here that have disagree with that view. I am of the mindset that we are not even half way through the valuation re-set for many assets.