hows it gonna play out ?
editor's note: We're glad this thread was started we're adding the LRC thoughts in this first post
Glad someone started this thread. We were just about to post some thoughts.
1) This is Asbel Kiprop’s (and Silas Kiplagat’s) Race To Lose - Don’t Be Surprised By A Kenyan Sweep
Here’s a stat for you. There are 12 men in the 1500 final. Do you realize that defending champion Asbel Kiprop has a seasonal best time in the 1500 that is 4.61 seconds, yes nearly 5 seconds, better than anyone else in the field?
Kiprop has run 3:27.72 and Gebremedhin has run 3:32.43.
Now, that stat is a little misleading as it doesn’t include the mile. For the mile, Kiprop is #2 on the list at 3:49.53 behind Silas Kiplagat at 3:49.48. The third fastest guy is the third Kenyan Nixon Chepseba at 3:50.95.
The next fastest miler this year? American Matt Centrowitz at 3:51.79. Kiprop and Kiplagat are two plus seconds better than everyone else and should go 1-2.
2) Will the Kenyans work together to set the pace or will they possibly sacrifice Chepseba to set up Kiplagat and Kiprop?
If Chepseba sets the pace, we don’t see how Kenya doens’t go 1-2. The issue is the Chepseba may not want to sacrifice himself. If we were the Kenyan coach, we’d do one of two things.
i) If we wanted to be fair and give guys all a shot, we do the following. “Hey guys were going to make sure the opening 800 is no slower than 1:55.0. We’ll draw straws to see who takes lap #1 and who takes lap #2, after that you are on your own.
ii) Alternatively, we’d go up to Kiprop and Kiplagat and say, “Hey you guys are going to give Nixon half your prize money. Nixon, here’s $25,000. Take this out for the 1st 1000 on 3:30 pace.
3) Don’t Be Surprised to see Centrowitz on the medal stand
A Kenyan sweep is a possibility but if one of them sets the pace, it may be tough. Behind the three Kenyans, the next best guy both on paper and the way he looked in the rounds is Centrowitz, who looked amazing in the semifinals and is tremendous in tactical races. Yes, the Gebremedhin has run faster but he was just 12th at Pre and 14th in Paris.