As JK seemingly does semi-annually, he's taken the time to share his brilliance/predictions:
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2012/11/2012-ncaa-regional-formchart-northeast-region/
Your thoughts? Where is correct/incorrect?
Post away!!
As JK seemingly does semi-annually, he's taken the time to share his brilliance/predictions:
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2012/11/2012-ncaa-regional-formchart-northeast-region/
Your thoughts? Where is correct/incorrect?
Post away!!
To say that they are not in the same league would both be a cliche and inadequate to describe the degree of difference. Both the degree of effort and the breadth of implication are orders of magnitude apart.
Do not get me wrong, both are nice and available to me and appreciated, but, ...
Finally letsrun has some decent college coverage!
Nice previews. Would like to see predictions of the teams into the dance.
letsbelazy wrote:
Nice previews. Would like to see predictions of the teams into the dance.
Predicting the teams into the dance is pretty easy to do if you know who has the points but it's time consuming.
$10 to anyone who wants to use JK's predictions and then tell me who gets in and how. Please email me at
robertjohnson@letsrun.combefore you do it as I'd hate someone to spend the time and then not get paid.
Individual picks are now up:
A review of how the process works.
When a team "X" is selected, we look at all the meets X was in over the course of the season starting the weekend of 9/21. Every time a team Y beat X, Y gets a point. However, we don't award any points if X is selected by getting "pushed in" (see below).
The process goes like this:
1. The top 2 teams from each region are automatically selected, and points are awarded for beating them.
2. Now we take into consideration the next two teams in each region (so we have 18 possible teams to worry about). Take the team "X" with the most points (breaking ties via head-to-head comparison or common opponents if needed).
3. If that team X is 3rd in its region, select it. Award points for beating X. Now go back to step 2 but now take the 5th team from this region into consideration. At any time, we are always considering the top two remaining teams from each region.
4. If that team X is 4th in its region (that is, there is a team ahead of X that is currently also under consideration), do the following. Don't select X. Instead, go to the next-highest points team and try to select it. Finish the whole selection process and get a list of 31 teams.
Now check: did X qualify on their own later in the process? If so, fine. That list of 31 teams we got is the correct, final qualification list.
But if X did not make the list, then throw the list away and come back to this point. Select X and award points for beating X. Also, select the team who was 3rd in the region (the team ahead of X). That team gets "pushed in" by X. However, nobody gets points for beating that team.
From now in, in that region, we can't use a push again. So for that region, from now on only consider one team at a time. Take that next team into consideration and continue the process.
5. When we are selecting the final (31st) team, only consider the top remaining team from each region instead of the top 2.
The only copy I could find of the rules is here:
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/cross_country/2010/10_1_crosscountry.pdf
Maybe someone else has a more up-to-date version?
And here's the projected qualifiers. Keep the $10 (get the wife some flowers). Three things to note:
1. This is based purely on Kellog's predictions and filling in the other teams based on current regional rankings.
2. This doesn't take into account A and B teams. For example, will Wisconsin's team from their home invite turn out to be an A team? That might change things.
3. When run on this data, the very last step turns out to be a tie between two teams that can't be broken head-to-head. I just listed both teams, I don't know how the common opponents tiebreaker would go. This would have been very messy if it happened earlier in the process.
-------------------------
Here's the data I'm using as input to my program, it's the projected regionals results and major meet results. If I missed any important meets, let me know.
regionals = dict(
northeast = ['iona','syracuse','columbia','providence','dartmouth','cornell'], #notfinal
midatlantic = ['princeton','georgetown','villanova','penn state'], #notfinal
southeast = ['eastern kentucky','virginia tech','virginia','nc state','louisville','william and mary','duke','north carolina'], #notfinal
south = ['florida state','georgia','florida','east tennessee state'], #notfinal
southcentral = ['texas','arkansas','texas a&m','mcneese state','lamar'], #notfinal
greatlakes = ['wisconsin','michigan','indiana','notre dame','eastern michigan','michigan state'], #notfinal
midwest = ['oklahoma state','oklahoma','tulsa','missouri','illinois','kansas','iowa state','minnesota'], #notfinal
mountain = ['colorado','byu','new mexico','northern arizona','air force'], #notfinal
west = ['stanford','portland','oregon','arizona state','ucla','washington','arizona','cal poly','washington state'], #notfinal
)
meets = dict(
pac12preview = ['northern arizona','ucla','arizona state','cal poly','sacramento state'],
panoramafarms = ['oklahoma','arkansas','virginia','michigan','duke','california','kentucky'],
notredameinvite = ['tulsa','princeton','notre dame','florida state','eastern kentucky','new mexico','texas a&m','washington state','mcneese state','nc state','north carolina','eastern michigan','ohio state','illinois'],
paulshort = ['villanova','william and mary','georgetown','dartmouth','providence','cornell'],
louisvilleclassic = ['iona','columbia','georgia','missouri','texas','louisville','arizona','michigan state'],
roygriak = ['minnesota','iowa state'],
dellinger = ['byu','oregon','southern utah','washington'],
wisconsininvite = ['stanford','iona','oklahoma','texas','arkansas','columbia','michigan','new mexico','eastern kentucky','ucla','syracuse','portland','northern arizona','princeton','indiana','iowa state','wisconsin','georgia','texas a&m','kansas','arizona state','washington','minnesota','illinois','arizona','notre dame','virginia','harvard','north carolina','cal poly','missouri','dartmouth','colorado state','nc state','michigan state','california','purdue','providence'],
chilepepper = ['oklahoma state','texas tech'],
prenats = ['colorado','byu','oregon','florida state','duke','virginia tech','tulsa','villanova','georgetown','eastern michigan','florida','louisville','boise state','william and mary','butler','mcneese state'],
mountainwest = ['new mexico','air force','colorado state'],
bigeast = ['syracuse','georgetown','notre dame','providence','villanova','louisville','cincinatti'],
sec = ['arkansas','georgia','missouri','texas a&m','florida','kentucky'],
pac12 = ['colorado','stanford','oregon','arizona state','ucla','washington','arizona','washington state','california'],
ivyleague = ['princeton','columbia','dartmouth','cornell'],
big12 = ['oklahoma state','texas','oklahoma','kansas','iowa state'],
acc = ['virginia tech','virginia','florida state','nc state','duke','north carolina'],
big10 = ['wisconsin','michigan','indiana','illinois','minnesota','penn state','michigan state'],
)
------------------
Teams selected in order:
1 wisconsin
2 michigan
3 princeton
4 georgetown
5 oklahoma state
6 oklahoma
7 colorado
8 byu
9 iona
10 syracuse
11 florida state
12 georgia
13 texas
14 arkansas
15 eastern kentucky
16 virginia tech
17 stanford
18 portland
---
19 columbia
20 new mexico
21 tulsa
22 oregon
23 northern arizona
24 indiana
25 notre dame
26 virginia
27 texas a&m
28 arizona state
29 ucla
30 washington
31 arizona OR missouri
Automatically selected:
1: wisconsin is selected, has losses to columbia (wisconsininvite), northern arizona (wisconsininvite), ucla (wisconsininvite), new mexico (wisconsininvite), indiana (wisconsininvite), iowa state (wisconsininvite),
2: michigan is selected, has losses to columbia (wisconsininvite), virginia (panoramafarms),
3: princeton is selected, has losses to northern arizona (wisconsininvite), columbia (wisconsininvite), new mexico (wisconsininvite), tulsa (notredameinvite), ucla (wisconsininvite),
4: georgetown is selected, has losses to william and mary (paulshort), villanova (prenats), tulsa (prenats), oregon (prenats), duke (prenats),
5: oklahoma state is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
6: oklahoma is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
7: colorado is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
8: byu is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
9: iona is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
10: syracuse is selected, has losses to columbia (wisconsininvite), new mexico (wisconsininvite), ucla (wisconsininvite),
11: florida state is selected, has losses to oregon (prenats), virginia (acc), tulsa (notredameinvite), notre dame (notredameinvite),
12: georgia is selected, has losses to columbia (wisconsininvite), northern arizona (wisconsininvite), ucla (wisconsininvite), new mexico (wisconsininvite), indiana (wisconsininvite), iowa state (wisconsininvite),
13: texas is selected, has losses to columbia (louisvilleclassic), missouri (louisvilleclassic),
14: arkansas is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
15: eastern kentucky is selected, has losses to columbia (wisconsininvite), notre dame (notredameinvite), tulsa (notredameinvite), new mexico (wisconsininvite),
16: virginia tech is selected, has losses to duke (prenats), oregon (prenats),
17: stanford is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
18: portland is selected, has losses to columbia (wisconsininvite), new mexico (wisconsininvite), ucla (wisconsininvite),
Teams under consideration: columbia (8), new mexico (6), tulsa (4), northern arizona (3), oregon (3), virginia (2), indiana (2), notre dame (2), villanova (1), missouri (1), providence (0), texas a&m (0), mcneese state (0), arizona state (0), nc state (0), penn state (0), florida (0), east tennessee state (0),
Others with points: ucla (5), duke (2), iowa state (2), william and mary (1),
19: columbia is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration: new mexico (6), tulsa (4), northern arizona (3), oregon (3), virginia (2), indiana (2), notre dame (2), villanova (1), missouri (1), providence (0), dartmouth (0), texas a&m (0), mcneese state (0), arizona state (0), nc state (0), penn state (0), florida (0), east tennessee state (0),
Others with points: ucla (5), duke (2), iowa state (2), william and mary (1),
20: new mexico is selected, has losses to notre dame (notredameinvite), tulsa (notredameinvite),
Teams under consideration: tulsa (5), northern arizona (3), oregon (3), notre dame (3), virginia (2), indiana (2), villanova (1), missouri (1), air force (0), providence (0), dartmouth (0), texas a&m (0), mcneese state (0), arizona state (0), nc state (0), penn state (0), florida (0), east tennessee state (0),
Others with points: ucla (5), duke (2), iowa state (2), william and mary (1),
21: tulsa is selected, has losses to duke (prenats), oregon (prenats),
Teams under consideration: oregon (4), northern arizona (3), notre dame (3), virginia (2), indiana (2), villanova (1), missouri (1), air force (0), providence (0), dartmouth (0), texas a&m (0), mcneese state (0), arizona state (0), nc state (0), penn state (0), illinois (0), florida (0), east tennessee state (0),
Others with points: ucla (5), duke (3), iowa state (2), william and mary (1),
22: oregon is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration: ucla (5), northern arizona (3), notre dame (3), virginia (2), indiana (2), villanova (1), missouri (1), air force (0), providence (0), dartmouth (0), texas a&m (0), mcneese state (0), arizona state (0), nc state (0), penn state (0), illinois (0), florida (0), east tennessee state (0),
Others with points: duke (3), iowa state (2), william and mary (1),
ucla not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
northern arizona wins head-to-head tiebreaker over notre dame (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, )
23: northern arizona is selected, has losses to ucla (wisconsininvite),
Teams under consideration: ucla (6), notre dame (3), virginia (2), indiana (2), villanova (1), missouri (1), air force (0), providence (0), dartmouth (0), texas a&m (0), mcneese state (0), arizona state (0), nc state (0), penn state (0), illinois (0), florida (0), east tennessee state (0),
Others with points: duke (3), iowa state (2), william and mary (1),
ucla not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
notre dame not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
indiana wins head-to-head tiebreaker over virginia (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, )
24: indiana is selected, has losses to ucla (wisconsininvite),
Teams under consideration: ucla (7), notre dame (3), virginia (2), villanova (1), missouri (1), air force (0), providence (0), dartmouth (0), texas a&m (0), mcneese state (0), arizona state (0), nc state (0), eastern michigan (0), penn state (0), illinois (0), florida (0), east tennessee state (0),
Others with points: duke (3), iowa state (2), william and mary (1),
ucla not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
25: notre dame is selected, has losses to arizona (wisconsininvite), kansas (wisconsininvite), washington (wisconsininvite), ucla (wisconsininvite), arizona state (wisconsininvite), minnesota (wisconsininvite), texas a&m (wisconsininvite), illinois (wisconsininvite), iowa state (wisconsininvite),
Teams under consideration: ucla (8), virginia (2), texas a&m (1), arizona state (1), villanova (1), missouri (1), illinois (1), air force (0), providence (0), dartmouth (0), mcneese state (0), nc state (0), eastern michigan (0), michigan state (0), penn state (0), florida (0), east tennessee state (0),
Others with points: duke (3), iowa state (3), washington (1), minnesota (1), kansas (1), william and mary (1), arizona (1),
ucla not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
26: virginia is selected, has losses to arizona (wisconsininvite), kansas (wisconsininvite), washington (wisconsininvite), ucla (wisconsininvite), arizona state (wisconsininvite), minnesota (wisconsininvite), texas a&m (wisconsininvite), illinois (wisconsininvite), iowa state (wisconsininvite),
Teams under consideration: ucla (9), texas a&m (2), arizona state (2), illinois (2), villanova (1), missouri (1), air force (0), providence (0), dartmouth (0), mcneese state (0), nc state (0), louisville (0), eastern michigan (0), michigan state (0), penn state (0), florida (0), east tennessee state (0),
Others with points: iowa state (4), duke (3), washington (2), minnesota (2), kansas (2), arizona (2), william and mary (1),
ucla not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
texas a&m wins head-to-head tiebreaker over arizona state (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, )
texas a&m wins head-to-head tiebreaker over illinois (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, notredameinvite, )
arizona state wins head-to-head tiebreaker over illinois (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, )
27: texas a&m is selected, has losses to iowa state (wisconsininvite), ucla (wisconsininvite), missouri (sec),
Teams under consideration: ucla (10), arizona state (2), missouri (2), illinois (2), villanova (1), air force (0), providence (0), dartmouth (0), mcneese state (0), lamar (0), nc state (0), louisville (0), eastern michigan (0), michigan state (0), penn state (0), florida (0), east tennessee state (0),
Others with points: iowa state (5), duke (3), washington (2), minnesota (2), kansas (2), arizona (2), william and mary (1),
ucla not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
arizona state wins head-to-head tiebreaker over missouri (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, )
arizona state wins head-to-head tiebreaker over illinois (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, )
illinois wins head-to-head tiebreaker over missouri (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, )
28: arizona state is selected, has losses to kansas (wisconsininvite), ucla (wisconsininvite), iowa state (wisconsininvite),
Teams under consideration: ucla (11), washington (2), missouri (2), illinois (2), villanova (1), air force (0), providence (0), dartmouth (0), mcneese state (0), lamar (0), nc state (0), louisville (0), eastern michigan (0), michigan state (0), penn state (0), florida (0), east tennessee state (0),
Others with points: iowa state (6), duke (3), kansas (3), minnesota (2), arizona (2), william and mary (1),
29: ucla is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration: washington (2), arizona (2), missouri (2), illinois (2), villanova (1), air force (0), providence (0), dartmouth (0), mcneese state (0), lamar (0), nc state (0), louisville (0), eastern michigan (0), michigan state (0), penn state (0), florida (0), east tennessee state (0),
Others with points: iowa state (6), duke (3), kansas (3), minnesota (2), william and mary (1),
washington wins head-to-head tiebreaker over arizona (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, pac12, )
washington wins head-to-head tiebreaker over missouri (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, )
washington wins head-to-head tiebreaker over illinois (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, )
no head-to-head tiebreaker for arizona and missouri (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, louisvilleclassic, )
illinois wins head-to-head tiebreaker over arizona (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, )
illinois wins head-to-head tiebreaker over missouri (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, )
30: washington is selected, has losses to southern utah (dellinger), kansas (wisconsininvite), iowa state (wisconsininvite),
Teams under consideration: arizona (2), missouri (2), villanova (1), air force (0), providence (0), mcneese state (0), nc state (0), eastern michigan (0), florida (0),
Others with points: iowa state (7), kansas (4), duke (3), minnesota (2), illinois (2), southern utah (1), william and mary (1),
no head-to-head tiebreaker for arizona and missouri (relevant meets: wisconsininvite, louisvilleclassic, )
31: arizona OR missouri
One thing I didn't mention: what's an A team?
Take the 7 runners who competed for a team at regionals.
At any midseason meet, that team ran its "A team" if at least 4 of those regional runners started the race in uniform. Otherwise, they ran its B team.
You only get points for beating someone's A team, not their B team.
UVA team from Wisconsin is a B team. Does this change things so Villanova gets in earlier?
Looks like 4 UVA runners ran at both Wisco and ACCs: Gates, Porter, Keveren, and Paisley. So if they keep their ACC team for regionals, that would be an A team. We'll have to see.
By the way, my source for all results right now is
.
Another thing I didn't mention. When awarding points, if two teams tie at a meet (have the same total score for the first 5 runners), we break ties like this: Compare the two teams' #1 runners head to head, then their #2 runners, #3, #4, and #5. The team that wins >= 3 of these head-to-head comparisons "beats" the other team. (So it would be awarded a point if the other team gets selected.) Also this determines the order of placing at the regional meet if there's a tie.
Since Wisconsin did not run Ahmed and Connor on the team at Wisconsin Invite, it will depend on what other five they run at Regionals. For instance, if they rest Brill, then the other four at the Invite have to be on the Regionals team or it will be a 'B' team.
Devils,
Thankss for doing that.
Here are the projected individual qualifers and teams based off that: