by John Kellogg
November 8, 2012
Editor’s note: When John Kellogg sent us his regional previews, he had a list of top 10 individuals at the bottom, which we now give you.We don’t think these are necessarily his predictions but rather how the race would play out if everyone ran as well as they mainly have so far this year.
He’s gone back into hibernation so we were unable to ask him what this list is, but thought you’d enjoy it. The stats next to each runner and all commentary were added by LetsRun.com. The list came from John Kellogg.
Men’s National Top 10 Individuals
1. Lawi Lalang (Arizona) – Kenya – Defending champ has run 3:36 and 13:08.
2. Kennedy Kithuka (Texas Tech) – Kenya – Big 12 champ transferred in from Wayland Baptist. It sure helps to get a 13:18/28:08 guy.
3. Stephen Sambu (Arizona) – Kenya – 13:13/27:28 are his PRs. Wow!
4. Anthony Rotich (UTEP) – Kenya – Only ran 13:57 last year in track but his first year of xc has been really good. Pre-Nats and Conference USA winner, Cowboy Jamboree runner-up.
5. Henry Lelei (Texas A&M) – Kenya -SEC Champ was 4th at Wisco (behind Lalng, Sambu and Iona’s Matt Gillespie) and 2nd at Notre Dame. 9th last year.
6. Paul Chelimo (UNCG) – Kenya – 13:21 last year. Runner-up at Pre-Nats this year but in that race he was 13 seconds behind Rotich. Earlier in the year he was 26 second behind Lalang.
7. Girma Mecheso (Oklahoma State) – USA – Big 12 runner-up has run 13:34/28:16. The IAAF lists him as Ethiopian, but this thread said Mecheso, who went to HS in the US, is now an American. Ok. State coach Dave Smith confirmed via text that Mecheso is indeed a US citizen.
8. Zachary Mayhew (Indiana) – USA – In the hunt for top American honors and if not then top American born honors. Track PRs of 13:53/28:55. This guy deserves a lot of credit for winning the Big 10 champs.
9. Chris O’Hare (Tulsa) – GBR – Notre Dame champ earlier this year. Has run 3:37. Conference USA Runner-up to Rotich but in that race he was 31-seconds down. It just shows you that the top 4-5 guys on this list are way better than everyone else on paper.
10. Will Mulherin (Virginia Tech) – USA – 13:41 guy was ‘only’ 6th at Pre-Nats, but wanted to give him props over the usual suspects from Colorado/Oregon who might nab this spot as he is the ACC champ and he led V Tech to its 1st ever ACC crown.
Something to consider: Arizona may have finished 7th at Pac 12s but if they ran NCAAs, they’d beat a few teams. With Lalang and Sambu 1-2 in the team standings, even if their three other scorers walked the course and finished third-to-last (212 in team scoring), second-to-last (213 in team scoring) and last (214 in team scoring) – as a team they’d score 642 points which would have placed them 28th last year. 511 points was 20th so that wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility.
Reminds us a little bit of 2007, when Gtown had three guys drop out, one went back on the course and finished dead last and they still showed up 13th in the team standings as there was no DQ (although there should have been).
Speaking of 2007, that was the year Josh McDougal outkicked Galen Rupp. How crazy does that sound now.
From The Vault: 2007 NCAA Recap: Josh McDougal Outkicks Galen Rupp For Title as Ducks Win
2007 MB: Georgetown
Women’s National Top 10 Individuals
1. Laura Hollander (Cal Poly) – USA – True frosh is undefeated on year, having won Wisco and Big West. Won conference meet by 31 + seconds.
2. Aliphine Tuliamuk-Bolton (Wichita State) – KEN – 15:26 performer has won Pre-Nats and Cowboy Jamboree this year. 12th last year.
3. Betsy Saina (Iowa State) – KEN – 31:15 performer was beaten by Hollander at Wisco. How crazy would it be if an American true frosh won NCAA xc over a 31:15 perfomer?
4. Kathy Kroeger (Stanford) – USA – 15:33 performer was 5th at Wisco but won Pac 12s.
5. Jordan Hasay (Oregon) – USA – 3rd in 2010, 2nd in 2011 – the story book ending would be first in 2012 for the former prep phenom but it doesn’t seem likely.
6. Risper Kimaiyo (UTEP) – KEN – 15:48 performer was 2nd at Pre-Nats. Conf USA champ.
7. Amber Henry (Weber State) – USA – 46th last year. The Big Sky champ is much better this year – 3rd at Wisco behind Hollander and Saina but ahead of Nelson, Kroeger and Kibet.
8. Meaghan Nelson (Iowa State) – USA – 32:14 runner was Big 12 runner-up.
9. Violah Lagat (Florida State) – KEN – ACC champ was 4th at Pre-Nats. Has run 4:13.
10. Elvin Kibet (Arizona) – KEN – Comes from a famous running family that includes established pros Syliva and Hilda Kibet. 3rd at Pac 12s.
Abbey D’Agostino (Dartmouth)? – The NCAA 5k champ missed both Wisco and Heps. Too early to rank her in the top 10.