Koech will NOT run 26:30 in Brussels. The winner, will not be anywhere close to 26:30. And here's why.
There are two possible scenarios:
1) The pacemaking is absolutely atrocious, as it very commonly is. Uneven pacing will cause the leaders to go through 5k in 13:30ish. After that it becomes a tactical affair. Winning time: 27:10.
2) The pacemaking is actually pretty good. The leaders go through 5k in 13:20ish, maybe a little bit under, and the field is set up nicely for fast finishing times. But once the pacemakers drop out, everybody backs off the pace because nobody has the guts to push on like Eliud Kipchoge did last year in Brussels. Yes, even Koech will back off. Pace dwindles down to 66/67 seconds per lap. Winning time: 26:55.
Either way, it all comes down to the pacemaking in the first 5k, and how much Koech wants to run a fast time. Remember, at some point he'll HAVE to do some work himself. But as we've seen in the past, most runners would rather take it easy and win the race, than push on and finish 5th or 6th.