Rudisha Says 48.5, 50.5 Split Possible......

Sam F wrote:

Regardless of what Kipketer, or Coe could have, or should have ran, David Rudisha has bested their times.As far as PBs, in Coe's case significantly, in Kipketers perhaps not as much.

But, more significantly perhaps, is the consistent posting of sub 142s, at a VERY young age. neither Coe or Kipketer can touch him in this regard.

Given the times posted Rudisha IS the 800m GOAT hands down. At 23yrs old, I wouldn't bet against him bettering the record a good bit.

Are you serious!??

Despite his dominance Rudisha is certainly not the GOAT. He may well go on to become the GOAT, and he will certainly be have a strong claim if he wins the Olympic title this year. But currently he is not.

You have to assess an athlete in the era in which they competed. The closest person in terms of their eras is Kipketer. Both Rudisha and Kipketer competed in an era where practically every circuit race was set up as a tt with a pacer. Both competed in a time when World Championships were/are held every 2 years. Both compete in an era of Indoor World Champs.

Peter Snell & Seb Coe competed in completely different eras to each other, and both ran in completely different eras to both the Kenyans. Neither competed in a World Championships as they didn't exist. But both were as dominant in their peak years as was Kipketer in his and Rudisha is now.

Snell ran 1:44.3 on a grass track 50 years ago. He was 1.3 sec faster than the next best in history. He won 2 Olympic golds. Not to mention a Commonwealth, when they were actually worth something.

Coe ran 1:41.7 some 31 years ago in early June and ran several metres further due to running wide. The track was certainly not as fast as the current mondo ones that Rudisha runs on. He broke the WR twice and was the holder for 18 years. He was 1.71 faster than the next fastest in history when he set his 2nd WR. He was unbeaten in 79 & 81 and lost just 7 races at 800m between August 78 and 1988. He won a medal in every major race he contested from front running the European indoors in 1977 (just 0.1 outside the WR) to winning gold in Stuttgart in 86, including 2 Olympic silvers. In an era before the World Champs he won the equivalent, the World Cup in 81.

Kipketer broke the WR twice also (in the same season) and won 3 World titles. His record at the Olympics was not quite as good as Coe with a silver and bronze. He ran consistently below 1:43 for many seasons. He was unbeaten for 2 seasons also, 96 & 97. When he broke the WR he went 0.62 faster than the next fastest ever.

Rudisha has broken the WR twice (the same as Coe & Kipketer) both in 2010. He is only 0.10 secs faster than the next fastest ever, & only 0.7 faster than what Coe ran 31 years ago. He was unbeaten in 2010, but was beaten by Aman last year. He only reached the semi final of his first major championships, the 2009 Worlds, but has since won 1 global title, last years Worlds. Yes, he has run more sub 1:42s than anyone else and yes he's only 23, but this is an era where the top athlete has his own travelling pace maker and almost every circuit race is designed to be a fast tt. That certainly wasn't the case in Snell's or Coe's eras. Then it was about winning. Running countless fast times is important, but not as important as titles, WRs, longevity or ranking points.

So, in terms of WR' s Rudisha has set the same number as Coe & Kipketer, but his margin of improvement is far less than any of the other 3.

Rudisha has 1 major gold medal and nothing yet on the Olympic stage.

Kipketer had 3 World golds. Snell 2 Olympic golds, & Coe a World Cup gold, a European gold (when they meant something) & 2 Olympic silvers. So in terms of medals, Rudisha lags behind the other 3 at present.

In terms of ranking points and longevity Rudisha is also behind the other 3. In fact the only ctiteris in which he is on top is the number of fast times he has. Again though, that is more the product of the era in which he runs. Rudisha is already one of the greats and is on his way to being the GOAT, but at present he hasn't done enough in a wide variety of criteria to warrant such an accolade.

What a load of contradictory drivel you write.

Coe did not come from nowhere in 79. Yes, the 3 world records were a surprise, but he'd narrowly missed the world indoor record in 77 at 20 and in 78 he was clearly capable of matching Juantorena's WR. His father predicted a 1:43.4 which is about what someone front running a 49.3 and running a 1:43.9 in crappy conditions on a notoriously slow Crystal Palace track, was capable of.

Had he run his potential in 78 of 1:43.4, then his 1:42.3 would have come as less of a shock. A 1.1 improvement between 21 & 22 is quite reasonable.

Please note that Kipketer improved by 2.17 secs during a similar period in his career ( 1:45.46 in 93, after being static around the 1:45/1:46 mark for the previous 4 seasons, to 1:43.29 in 94!) Did people predict a 1:41 for Kipketer at this stage in his career. I would think more people would have been surprised at Kipketr's unusual progression than Coe's more gradual improvements.

Coe's 1:42.33 was not a WR attempt. Read about the context of the race and you might be better informed. The Coe's did not believe he was yet in WR form after a drop in training during the Spring due to doing his finals at Uni. Peter Coe went to all Coe's big races during this period of his son's career, and the fact that he did not go to either of the 800 WRs is because they were not planned attempts. You are very selective in what you believe people say. Ryun says he wasn't feeling well and you knock a second off his time. Coe says he didn't plan a WR and you call him a liar. No consistency.

"any perceived improvements in 400 mean nothing

rudy coud go & run 44.75 & that woud mean absolutely nothing as to what his 800 prospects were"

Hypocrite! If 400 improvements mean nothing, then why do you keep referring to them and including them in your calculator predictions when claiming athletes' potentials!?

If Rudisha could run 45.5 in March when he was running 1:43, then of course he'd be closer to 45.0 when running 1:41.1 in August. You've said such yourself. What is true of Rudisha is going to be true of others.

If Coe reduced his endurance training in 79, then why was he aiming for and breaking the Mile & 1500 WRs later in 79?

Why do you keep on going on about Coe should have front run a 1:42.5 to prove his Wr wasn't a fluke? Utter rubbish. Unlike Rudisha, Coe didn't need to front run or have a super fast pace to win. He could stay near the front and outkick his rivals with ease, when at a peak. Something he did when winning both the European & World Cups in 81, with 11.9 and 12.0 last 100m respectively. Such a person, with possible fast mile race coming up, does not need to front run at WR pace.

"his father coudn't get him to peak for moscow 800

what on earth makes your peabrain think his father had any control of when his son's body reached a peak when he screwed up his 800 peak in '80 ???"

Idiot. He was certainly at a peak in Moscow and was still head and shoulders above the rest in that race. Have you watched the race? He lost purely because he ran a diabolical tactical race. It was mental not physical. Ovett's last 200/400 on the rails was 25.0/50.5. Coe's in lane 2 on both bends was 24.9/50.7. That's worth 24.5/49.8 on the rails. Had he been at the front and in contact with Ovett he'd have won easily. Had Kipketer or Rudisha run the same race as Coe up to 500m then neither of them would have caught Ovett either.

Coe ran c. 811m that day in 1:45.8. Had he run 800m it would have been 1:44.5 with laps of 54.7, 49.8. Those lap times are indicative of 1:42 flat ability.

Coe's endurance didn't suffer between June & Sept. Try reading about the topic. He would have continued with speed and speed endurance throughout the summer to reach a peak for late August/early Sept and a Mile clash with Ovett and a World Cup 800m gold. It is possible to sustain both aspects in a training schedule.

"different animal & still improving as just a kid

rudy is not coe & coe was no kid in '81"

Coe was 24 in 81, Rudisha is 23 this year, and that's if his passport/d.o.b is accurate.

So far this year Rudisha has run 1:41.5, no better than what Coe ran at 24, when he ran the same time (running wide for at least 40m cost him 0.2) in his WR run.

"drivel

he openly states speedwork after 1'44.0

don't dare compare this to rudy's situation of opening with 1'43+ in oz in march/april off no stated speedwork

moron

if rudy can't crack 1'43 off little/no speedwork, coe sure as hell wasn't running 1'41.7 off little/no speedwork

he'd put in damn hard amount of speedwork to run 1'41.7

Idiot. Coe did speedwork all year round. That doesn't mean his speedwork did not improve or become more central in his training the nearer it came to the big races at the height of summer. He is also on record as saying that he hadn't reached a peak in June and that he had a lot more training to do throughout the summer.

The idea that Rudisha, who went to Australia to test out his 400 speed, did no speed work at that time of year prior to his 1:43, just underlines how obtuse you are.

"1'42.2 is not far inferior to 1'41.7 or otherwise you better stop mentioning coe in same breath as rudy/kip as he is more inferior to them at 800 then kaki is to coe"

It is when Kaki had drafting from Rusisha to 700m. Take away that extra 300m advantage Kaki had over Coe in his WR run, and you get a time of 1:42.9. Alternatively, give Coe that extra 300m of drafting Kaki had, and you get sub 1:41. Whichever way you look at it, it's a huge margin. Kaki is not in the same league as a peak Coe.

And you threaten me not to mention Coe in the same breath as Rudisha & Kipketer! Lol. What a tool. So, what you going to do about it? Does it really get to you that a European was able to run at the same level as your 2 fellow Kenyans decades before they did?

Coe's run in Florence was worth 1:41.5 without having to run wide. If it was such a well planned world record attempt, then why did the rabbit finish and make Coe run wide? Because it wasn't planned.

That puts him 0.4 behind Kip & 0.5 behind Rudisha, both of whom had countless planned attacks at the WR. We've already established that without an additional 300m of drafting, Kaki'r run was worth 1:42.9. That's 1.4 behind Coe. So you clearly don't know what you're talking about.

When Cruz ran 1:41.77 in 84 at 21, he was expected to go faster in 85. He didn't. He had no injury problems in 85, he just didn't go quicker. Both he and Ryun reached their peaks early.

When Coe ran 1:41.7 he was 24. He had always been a late developer. Improvements in 82 & 83 were likely, but he was ill. That's why he didn't run faster.

"1'40.3/3'24.4 for ryun in '67 on a '70s track is helluva lot more likely than coe ever running 1'41.0 in '81"

Apart from you posting under different names on here, I think you'll be hard pushed to find anyone with a modicum of intelligence and awareness of the history of this event, to agree with you.

not until his last 800 of the year of 1'43.9 did he look any threat to the wr & he still was 0.5s shy of it

his best before that was 1'44.2, which was long way behind 1'43.4 & no one seriously considered him a wr threat with that

drivel

that track was as fast as anywhere in the world & conditions were fine

ovett set the 2 mile wr that meet - no crappy conditions for his race you moron

bedford & foster both ran 27'30 on it before - 1st a huge wr & 2nd missed wr by tenths

there was no 1'43.4 potential in '78

that 1'43-high looked his limit that year

idiot

for '90 - '93 he was a uni student of electronic engineering - a damn hard science degree & ran track part time

when he'd finished by '93, '94 was his first year as a fulltime athlete & 1'43.29 was result

then nice improvement to 1'42.87 the next year & 1'41.83 in '96

he improved by 1.0s between '95 - '96

1'43.29 was his proper measure not a part-time 1'45.4

running 1'43.29 at 21y indicates plenty of room for improvement within next coupls of years

moron

they woudn't if they knew about his uni background

kip's improvement from '94 - '96 looks far more natural than coe's from '78 - '81

idiot

that's what it was

if he was only interested in a workout, he wouda let pacer go & leave them to drop out while he ran a tactical race amongst the pack

he didn't

he stuck like a limpet to pacer & gave it all he had

so ?

he'd been training hard all winter & early '79 - easing off for a coupla weeks wasn't going to make him lose all that fitness - in fact it woud give a taper, similar to swimming

he came out well rested to oslo with no tiring backlog of races & broke the wr

moron

get it into your numbskull

his pa doesn't run his races

i asked you, how many times did father colm go to rudy's wr attempts ???

moron

vid is there for anyone to see

because he'd look an idiot if he said said it before & failed miserably

if it wasn't a wr attempt, he woudn't have followed the pacer

learn to intrepret evidence you idiot

idiot

i have never claimed ever that a faster 400 means anything without an idea of changes in other distances

like i said, if rudy runs 44.75, it tells me nothing about what his 800 is going to be like without more info

because 45.5 was virtually his 1st race of the year in admitted "off no speedwork at all"

coe ran his 46.79 in mid-july with plenty of speedwork done

for rudy i'd want to see a 400 run in june & then august, NOT his opening leg-stretcher in february

idiot

he was primary a 800 runner & all his training was geared to running the best possible 800

his 1500/miles were run more as an afterthought

he had no 1500/mile pb worth bothering mentionong before

no one considered him a 1500 guy

moron

because it woud lend credence tou your idiotic belief his 800 was faster than 1'41.7 later on

he ran 2 snail pace 800s after which no way indicated any improvement on 1'41.7

moron

it's not about winning

it's about showing he had better than 1'41.7 ability

those 2 races were crap slow at 1'46/1'47 & showed no indication of low-1'41

he didn't even crack 1'44 that year

i'm sure he was close to '79 shape, but no evidence of anything better

drivel

they are 0.6/0.7s faster than coe

they couda caught him

drivel

reverse the splits : 49.8/54.7

no one woud call that indicative of 1'42-flat

maybe in mid/high 1'42 that year based on '79 & no injury history, but no 1.42.0

idiot

i said nothing about his endurance suffering

with upcoming big races at 1500/mile v ovett, where he woud want to run the legs off ovett, endurance wouda been main thing to work on, not speed

idiot

you don't know the precise mix of speed/endurance from june to august

anyone with a clue woud know they woudn't have been the same

moron

it's accurate

his manager has said he was still growing in '10

idiot

rudy ran 1'42.01 aged 20y

light years ahead of coe at same age

idiot

he ran 1'41.51 aged 21y

moron

he certainly was at 800 peak in june

show me once more a blistering solo 1'42.5 in those 2 cups which woud indicate better speedwork ???

f*cking moron

he ran 45.5 in februrary

what serious race was he running in february where he needed any speedwork at all ???

he only goes to australia because his manager is australian & wants to show this mega talent to his country, even though he's nowhere near peak form in february

he is running these 1'43s off just his endurance base

idiot

watch the race

kaki sped off too fast from gun trying to take pole behind pacer - he stormed the 1st 100

he built up a huge lactate level just from that, handicapping his final time & also forcing rudy to run too hard

they both threw away a few tenths from that opening

sensible start & they wouda gone mid/high-1'41 & high-1'41 respectively

drivel

kaki shouda gone high-1'41 that day off a sensibly run 1st 200

kaki's drafting advantage was little

he was not 2m behind him, more like 3m which means he got nowhere near full drafting

maybe 2 or 3 tenths at best, which gives his time as around 1'42-flat

plenty comparable to coe

idiot

coe was simply not as fast a 800 runner as those 2

idiot

do you think billy was going to run 1'41, as that was the pace he was going for at the bell ???

it was obvious to all who watched it it was a wr attempt, but you are too stoopid to realise

coe only had to run wide because billy had done such a perfect job of pacing him that coe was virtually stuck to him & had to go round if he wanted to pass him

idiot

& none which were perfect

kip's 1'41.24 off suicidal 48.3 wouda been 1'40.7 if run off a sensible 49.5 - 50.0

rudy is getting no drafting to 2m gap upto bell - he'd be 1'40.6 if he did

that makes coe 0.8 - 0.9s behind them

moron

he wasn't like a limpet, 2m behind rudy

that was more like 0.2 - 0.3s gained & without too fast start, that wouda been about 1'42.0 for him

more like 0.5s behind coe

idiot

cruz had 1 leg shorter than the other which gave him hip/back problems as his career progressed

his coach said he is amazed cruz managed to run that long before the injuries took their toll by '85 & his training suffered

ryun got glandular fever in late '67/early '68 which he never recovered from in his career

that silver was amazing as he was still probably in 3'30 shape behind keino with the debilitating illness present

you are dreaming

you have no clue whether he wouda improved

i knew the second i saw him run 1'41.7 that was going to be his career pb

i don't post under different names unlike you moron

idiot, history has nothing to do with someone's talent

history told us beamon coudn't jump 8.90, but he did

ryun was plenty capable of 1'40/3'24 if given the opportunity in '67

moron

idiot

drivel

"Ryun was plenty capable of 1'40/3'24 if given the opportunity in '67"

http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4061/4669812732_5407c2534c_z.jpg

& to run fast frequently is hugely demanding

no

coe kept losing champs with rounds in them

1st & only win in such was '86 euros - not a global champs

try 2m

we don't know if the track was even legit at 400m & the the timing broke down

unknown meet & track which had never seen a world class time ever recorded on it before

too many losses to be considered goat

no global golds ( yes he was out in '83/'87 - 1 gold there wouda got him contention )

the most significant historical 800 race for him between '84 - '88 was cologne '85 against cruz

he got crushed 1'42.54 v 1'43.07

losing to cruz again loses him goat contention

good win but no rounds

idiot

he was not allowed to compete in atlanta

it's more than 90% likely off his rieti 1'41.83 that he wouda beaten rodahl for that gold

in a meaningless race he shoudn't have even run in

he'd just gone 1'41.33 in rieti & i among most assumed he'd finished for the year

why on earth he was running in a no name meet in milan 8/7 later is a mystery

aman winning in 1'43.5 not going to shake the world & pertinently, he has avoided rudy like the plague this year

& tangui is shit

only an idiot woud think taking tangui around the circuit is any advantage

he is far better served just using a decent, local 400 guy to pace him at these meets

& it hugely physically demanding & impressive to run fast 800s frequently

yeah

running mostly slow, tactical races on the circuit is as impressive as running damn fast races every time

if your opposition is crap, as snell's mostly was, it doesn't mean anything

running fast means much more

ranking points mean bullshit

there are no more iaaf rankings & t&f news ones are self-appointed nonsense, only of interest because gullible companies use them as a guide to decide sponsorship fees

number of wrs is nonsense

hicham ran only 1 wr at 1500, but it was so much faster than the last one, which was already considered near unbreakable

he is the goat at 1500 & he only has 1 wr

why state the bloody obvious ?

idiot

this "era" talk is nonsense

this 800 era of paced races has been going since at least boit in '75

between '02 of kip's 1'42.2 & '09 when rudy ran 1'42.0, there was 7y of same number of paced races, but no quick times worth mentioning apart from 3 high-1'42s

7y of crap times despite all being paced

rudy has made the fast races, not anything to do with some "era" crap

"Hi, my username is ventolin^3. I use basic math and physics to arrive at conclusions that have absolutely no value in the real world of running. My universe is an outdated and long discredited positivist one, and I live in constant fear of the truth - that variables I cannot quantify or otherwise account for play an important role in predicting race outcomes. I am also incapable of fathoming the depths to which my credibility sinks when I refer to other posters as 'idiots,' 'morons' and 'imbeciles.' I am ventolin^3. Please love me. I like science."

It's possible. Not by him, but it's possible.

Toronto wrote:and I live in constant fear of the truth - that variables I cannot quantify or otherwise account for play an important role in predicting race outcomes

moron

this is 21st century

science is far enough advanced to give very good estimates for variables such as uneven pace/wind/humidity/altitude/etc but obviously your peabrain woudn't understand this

moron

idiot

drivel

Toronto wrote:

"Hi, my username is ventolin^3. I use basic math and physics to arrive at conclusions that have absolutely no value in the real world of running. My universe is an outdated and long discredited positivist one, and I live in constant fear of the truth - that variables I cannot quantify or otherwise account for play an important role in predicting race outcomes. I am also incapable of fathoming the depths to which my credibility sinks when I refer to other posters as 'idiots,' 'morons' and 'imbeciles.' I am ventolin^3. Please love me. I like science."

Yeah, pretty much.

Read:

lol lol lol lol wrote:Deano--it's VENTOLIN. Our village idiot, and resident autistic. You are not dealing with an intelligent, rational person here

moron

you offer nothing

impress me with some insight into the athletics talk or f*ck off idiot

Just exactly who is ventolin anyway? Does he even have any coaching, professional running credentials?

ventolin^3 wrote:

lol lol lol lol wrote:Deano--it's VENTOLIN. Our village idiot, and resident autistic. You are not dealing with an intelligent, rational person here

moron

you offer nothing

impress me with some insight into the athletics talk or f*ck off idiot

"The lack of demonstrated empathy is possibly the most dysfunctional aspect of Asperger syndrome.[2] Individuals with AS experience difficulties in basic elements of social interaction"

"Not pick up on social cues and may lack inborn social skills, such as being able to read others' body language, start or maintain a conversation, and take turns talking."

"Talk a lot, usually about a favorite subject. One-sided conversations are common."

"Problems with social skills: Children with Asperger's syndrome generally have difficulty interacting with others and often are awkward in social situations. They generally do not make friends easily. They have difficulty initiating and maintaining conversation."

Of course, this is only one of the developmental difficulties Ventolin suffers from.

ventolin^3 wrote:

lol lol lol lol wrote:Deano--it's VENTOLIN. Our village idiot, and resident autistic. You are not dealing with an intelligent, rational person here

moron

you offer nothing

impress me with some insight into the athletics talk or f*ck off idiot

Has anyone ever run a second lap of 50.5 off any pace? I doubt it.

Rudisha and anyone who agrees with him is delusional to talk about this off a suicidal 48.5 quarter. But then it's obvious that 1:39 is delusional anyway.

no

it is just a statement of fact

you are a

moron

offer athletics

ventolin^3 wrote:

no

it is just a statement of fact

you are a

moron

offer athletics

Ventolin, it's okay. You're not the only one with Aspergers and other profound mental impairments. There are millions of others out there suffering from the same problems.

moron

where is the athletics ???

Well this is not how I was expecting this thread to go. Quite the meltdown from Mr Ventolin there.

http://i.imgur.com/K4Epu.jpg