Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Mr. Rupp will run 8:07.34 for two full miles.

His last 800 meters will be quite fast.

Believe me, believe he will.

Concerned Citizen wrote:

OTC people who may read this: is there anything that the LRC community can do to help Galen Rupp run under 8:15?

As a running enthusiast and fan of the sport I would be willing to turn a blind eye to PED use for a short period just to allow Galen to run sub 8:15. It would be worth it.

McMillian calculator has a 13:11 5000m (Rupp's indoor PB) equal to an 8:07 2 mile, so I believe he *could* do it if he's in shape.

However, it also is equal to a 3:48 mile according to a calculator, and based on Rupp only running a 3:57 I doubt he will be able to do it next week. Not beyond his ability, but probably not happening in only a week after a 3:57.

8:10!!!!

Jesse was indeed a friend wrote:

This is why Galen Rupp bothers me, although maybe Salazar talks him into this stuff. He has ZERO chance at running 8:10 and it is obvious to the intelligent. He will be fortunate to run 8:15 if everything falls into place. He has absolutely no chance at running faster than 8:15. I will NEVER post here again if Rupp runs faster than 8:15 this weekend.

Don't know why you think he has no shot. He's faster at 5,000 than Lagat. If he's fit and healthy, he has a great shot.

rupp hasnt done much other than his 10k AR to indicate he has a sub 13 in him (which he does) let alone run faster than 12:53 outdoors; he just hasnt shown he has the speed yet. he's faster than lagat indoors on paper by less than a second so i wouldnt just say that rupp is faster indoors than lagat just yet (that was in a race rupp lost, whereas lagat won his). lagat even said so himself that his AR indoors for 5k was still a soft record and that he would take another crack at it (this weekend, and if all goes according to plan he'll get it back by maybe 2-3 seconds. he's got the win in the bag)

lagat ran his AR in the 2 mile going 4:08 for the first mile then blitzing a 4:02 the second, most of the extra time being taken off in the last 1200ish meters. he said that record was still soft in his opinion and i agree with him as well, just based off the way he ran it.

Rupp has a shot, theyre going to go through around 4:05-6 range and then probably plan on coming back in 4:03 if all works out. despite the record still being soft (in lagats opinion) its still a good time overall indoors and out and when rupp and salazar make predictions like these, they usually end up being accurate, especially since mo joined the group.

and for the sake of the LRC im going to be screaming my head off just for rupp to go under 8:15.

Flagpole wrote:

Jesse was indeed a friend wrote:

This is why Galen Rupp bothers me, although maybe Salazar talks him into this stuff. He has ZERO chance at running 8:10 and it is obvious to the intelligent. He will be fortunate to run 8:15 if everything falls into place. He has absolutely no chance at running faster than 8:15. I will NEVER post here again if Rupp runs faster than 8:15 this weekend.

Don't know why you think he has no shot. He's faster at 5,000 than Lagat. If he's fit and healthy, he has a great shot.

Are you out of your mind? When did Rupp run faster than Lagat in a 5000m ?

Well, I meant 10,000...my bad.While those are two very different distances, the way Rupp has continued to improve, I wouldn't put anything past him. Running 8:10 indoors would be crazy hard, but he's already the AR holder at 10,000 meters, so he's been in rarefied air before.If Tegenkamp can run 8:07 outdoors, Rupp can go sub-8:10 indoors.

What planet are you from wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Don't know why you think he has no shot. He's faster at 5,000 than Lagat. If he's fit and healthy, he has a great shot.

Are you out of your mind? When did Rupp run faster than Lagat in a 5000m ?

What planet are you from wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Don't know why you think he has no shot. He's faster at 5,000 than Lagat. If he's fit and healthy, he has a great shot.

Are you out of your mind? When did Rupp run faster than Lagat in a 5000m ?

Well actually Rupp is faster than Lagat at 5000m indoors...that's the whole point of Lagat running the 5000m at Millrose, to get back the AR that Rupp took from him...

Indoor races mean we talk about indoor PR's

The Waterboy wrote:McMillian calculator has a 13:11 5000m (Rupp's indoor PB) equal to an 8:07 2 mile, so I believe he *could* do it if he's in shape.

However, it also is equal to a 3:48 mile according to a calculator, and based on Rupp only running a 3:57 I doubt he will be able to do it next week. Not beyond his ability, but probably not happening in only a week after a 3:57.

at his peak last year, outdoors, i reckon rupp was

~ 52.3 / 1'49.7 -> 3'34.4 , 7'27.9 , 8'02.6 , 12'49.9 , 26'43.6

odd distances like 2 miles are hard to pace because of rarity of run, but 8'02+ was theoretically possible

now, i believe this race is run at fayetville which is a "wide" indoor track & i got rough estimate it'd be only ~ 3s slower than outdoors for 2 miles

in peak form, he is capable of

~ 8'06/8'07

I was at Lagat's AR 2 mile last year, and one thing to note is that the pacing was pretty bad. Lagat's first mile was 4:08.x and he closed in 4:01.x. Clearly not an even pace whatsoever, my guess is he could have run around 8:05 that day if properly paced the first mile. If Rupp's pacing is more even (first mile in 4:04-4:05) I think he can get 8:10 or under.

ventolin^3 wrote:

now, i believe this race is run at fayetville which is a "wide" indoor track & i got rough estimate it'd be only ~ 3s slower than outdoors for 2 miles

"Wide" indoor track? Is it considered legal for record purposes?

IAAF scoring tables are another way to look at it.

Lagat's 8:10.07 = 1253/1254 points.

Rupp's recent 3:57.10 = 1167/1168 points.

Rupp's 7:42.4 indoor 3,000m = 1186 points.

Rupp's 13:11.44 indoor 5,000 = 1220 points.

That 1220 points/13:11.44 is roughly equal to 3:53.16, 7:37.11 and 8:15.64.

Of course, Rupp continues to improve.

yes

there is some flexibility with tracks ( not sure about new ones )

outdoors, usual is 116m curve/84m straight, but i believe it is still legal all the way up to ~ 125m/75m ( which is the brussels track & probably the main reason blake ran 19.26 on it, whereas it wouda been more like 19.4 on a standard 116/84 which most are )

( albeit, iaaf seem to have "hidden" the range rules )

the above obviously applies to indoors but 1/2 everything

however, it looks like iaaf wants all new international tracks now to be 116/84

I'm pretty much a pure distance guy, and when I'm in 8:10 3000m shape my 1500m is at 3:53, so I think if Rupp can run sub 3:53 for the mile he may have a shot at it. Again, I was a pure distance guy with mediocre speed. Others may have to break 3:45 1500 to run 8:10 but for me 3:53 1500m was equivalent. I know I'm comparing 15s to a mile and 3ks to 2mile but it's relevant.

ventolin^3 wrote:

So Rieti should be another 125/75 track, right?

ventolin^3 wrote:

The Waterboy wrote:McMillian calculator has a 13:11 5000m (Rupp's indoor PB) equal to an 8:07 2 mile, so I believe he *could* do it if he's in shape.

However, it also is equal to a 3:48 mile according to a calculator, and based on Rupp only running a 3:57 I doubt he will be able to do it next week. Not beyond his ability, but probably not happening in only a week after a 3:57.

at his peak last year, outdoors, i reckon rupp was

~ 52.3 / 1'49.7 -> 3'34.4 , 7'27.9 , 8'02.6 , 12'49.9 , 26'43.6

odd distances like 2 miles are hard to pace because of rarity of run, but 8'02+ was theoretically possible

now, i believe this race is run at fayetville which is a "wide" indoor track & i got rough estimate it'd be only ~ 3s slower than outdoors for 2 miles

in peak form, he is capable of

~ 8'06/8'07

Any thoughts on why Geb was only good for 8:01, despite running the deuce several times and (I think) $1 million on the line for a sub-8?

Why does Rupp bother you saying this stuff? It seems to me plenty of runners say they can run a time that is just a little bit unrealistic. If anything Rupp is one of the few runners who has kept his expectations low almost to a fault.

I will give Rupp this. Even though he ran 3:57 last weekend I think he could have easily run 3:54-55. He got tripped up and then pushed the last 800 on his own. If he had been smooth throughout and been able to follow he could have run 2 to 3 secs faster.