This talk that Rupp is going to help Ritz rope-a-dope Hall or Meb is a little ridiculous. Hall runs his own race (sometimes to a fault) and Meb is one of the most tactically savvy racers in the US. They aren't going to get caught out by a big move by Rupp. Plus, they have distinguished themselves as a "cut above" the rest of the field at the marathon distance and realistically should lock up spots. I know, I know, this is the marathon and anything can happen and all that crap, but Hall is a 2:04-2:06 marathoner (depending on who you ask) and Meb just PR'd at NYC this fall with a 2:09, so they *should* make the team.
The third spot could go to any number of guys, as there are 5-6 who have run 2:10-2:12, or at least have shown HM times equating to a similar performance. Let's include Rupp with these guys (for discussions sake). There are two ways to look at it:
1.) Attempt to qualify. Salazar and Rupp recognize the rest of field is relatively soft and Rupp could get an Olympic spot running a 2:10 (1:06/1:04) effort, giving them the luxury of choosing between the 5k/10k/marathon at the Olympics. Rupp could qualify, run the track trials, then decide whether to accept or decline his position for the marathon, based on where they think he'll do best. Houston pays for the fees and accommodation of each entrant, so it's basically a "free-trial" at the marathon, versus a big city marathon where Rupp could run the same level performance and finish say seventh or eighth (Hall's 2:06 was only 6th at London). Rupp doesn't hurt his value (for appearance fees) by placing 3rd and earning an Olympic spot. Plus, if he drops out at 35km, then they can sell it as a workout.
2.) Workout/tempo run. Houston pays for each of the entrants. Therefore, it doesn't cost/hurt Rupp to go to the trials. He can run 20-30km at race pace/steady effort, then drop out. It has the added benefit of helping the top tier marathoners (Meb, Hall, Ritz) if Rupp paces them through halfway in 1:05. That's on PR pace for the majority of the field, so you seperate the wheat from the chaff pretty quickly. Plus, if anyone is having an off-day, you're going to jettison them early enough so they can't just hang around in the final 5k. If you REALLY want to subscribe to the he's trying to whittle away the field, the more realistic targets are Trafeh, Arcinga, Gotcher, Hartmann, etc. A guy with a 2:11 PR isn't going to run 2:11 if he's trying to cover surges every couple of miles, or follows Rupp out in 1:04 for the first half. Trafeh couldn't hold himself back in London and the rest haven't demonstrated the fitness that they could handle hard mid-race surges. The more of them that blow up, the fewer competitors to challenge Ritz.