Discuss.
Discuss.
With his current fitness and having a good race I would say around 50th to 60th place right now.
I don't know if you've run D1 or at nationals but the surges are much more potent and the race goes out at an insane pace. The race is also 30 minutes which means bad patches are tougher to gut through, and a lapse in focus for 1 minute can mean losing 15 or 20 places.
I knew a guy who grabbed the last all-american award one year finishing in the 40+th place range and had a 5k PR of 13:50ish.
No better than 110th.
He probably could have placed 60 to 80th place which would be incredible for a high school junior.
Well He is very comparable to Lutz in terms of CC Potential so I would guess top 40. This is a very deep year though where you certaintly would have to be a sub 14 level performer to be all-american. Edward was a potential sub sub 14 guy last year, i think he ran 14:05 or something and he is in much better shape right now, i would guess 13:40-45. Next year is going to be significantly weaker it wouldn't surprise me if futsum was in the top 10, so cheserek would probably too
I'm so tired of these stupid questions asking how elite high schoolers would do at NCAA nationals. They would get absolutely BURIED. Every. Single. Time. The competition is at a completely different level from high school. Now of course they could have a chance at doing well in their freshman year with a summer and fall of college training like Lutz. However, as they are right now they would do horribly. It is ludicrous to think any high schooler (cheserek, Lukas v last year, etc) could simply hypothetically enter natties and win, be top 10, or even all American. This isn't an insult, he's simply in HIGH SCHOOL.
Ritzenhein would have been easily All-American as a HS sr.
FreakinNewbs wrote:
I'm so tired of these stupid questions asking how elite high schoolers would do at NCAA nationals. They would get absolutely BURIED. Every. Single. Time. The competition is at a completely different level from high school. Now of course they could have a chance at doing well in their freshman year with a summer and fall of college training like Lutz. However, as they are right now they would do horribly. It is ludicrous to think any high schooler (cheserek, Lukas v last year, etc) could simply hypothetically enter natties and win, be top 10, or even all American. This isn't an insult, he's simply in HIGH SCHOOL.
No one has said he could win, be top 10 or get All-American. The consesus seems to be around 60th place or so. Sounds about right to me.
It's not a stupid question. There have been freshman who have come in and finished top 10 at NCAA's. Just off the top of my head i can remember Franklyn Sanchez and Dathan Ritzenhein finishing top 5 and Chris Derrick finished top 10.
Bob Kennedy won it
Secong to Lalang
If he'd been in NCAA and ran what he ran at footlocker twice back to back that would have been good for about 18th.
Comparable to Lutz? No. Way, way better than Lutz.
I am saying top 20, cause he is better then Lutz by a good margin.
Not ches could win he's like 24 right now that makes your he's in high school argument irrelevant he's an adult.
I'm with FreakinNewb. 110th would be his best race. He would blow up somewhere around 6k and might not finish.
ButtSex wrote:
Not ches could win he's like 24 right now that makes your he's in high school argument irrelevant he's an adult.
It doesn't make any difference how old he is. I'm 28 and I wouldn't win NCAA.
Is Cheserek going to run World Cross Junior's? A top 10 finish there would be a better predictor. That would prove right now he could have been maybe top 30 at NCAA's.
I'd give him top 100 on a good day. People who think he would somehow double his FL Nats time at Terre Haute, no chance, sorry. Double plus a minute, maybe. On a good day.
Yes, but Ritz was third at World Juniors XC -- and Bekele won that race, so he was second among mortals...