Here is the email I sent them. I did not know Kara had been hurt.
I was the one person perhaps really impressed with her 2011 season coming back from the baby. She was top 5 at Boston without the proper buildup. Yes Desi ran her 2:22:38 but Kara was 2 minutes back after giving birth a few months before.
Kara always seems to run under 1:10 for the half. She has been the best American marathoner the last few years. So I put her down for the win. A healthy Kara, Shalane and Desi, I don't see why everyone acts like Kara loses out. Neither one of them has yet to show they have mastered the marathon (ie be in the 2:20-2:22 range on a flat course).
My email to TFN in middle of November.
1) Hall
2) Meb
3) Ritz
4) Abdi Abdirahman
5) Nick Arciniaga
One to watch: Mo Trafeh
Comments: I doubt my top 3 hold up, but they are the class of the field. As for the three that make the team I think the team will come from one of my top 4, Mo Trafeh, or a guy with track credentials like Tim Nelson or Brent Vaughn rather than a 2:11 guy like Nick Arciniaga or Jason Hartmann. The track guys need to figure out the marathon to make the team (something a lot of guys never do), a 2:11-2:13 guy needs to become a better runner to make the team.
Women
1) Kara Goucher
2) Shalane
3) Deena
4) Desi
5) Amy Hastings
Comments: I can't believe I'm leaving Desi off (most people's favorite) but like the men's side I bet my top 3 won't hold. I just wanted to put Deena on the team because I think too many people are overlooking her. She's run 2:21 or better 3 times.No one else in the field has run a non wind-aided time of under 2:25. Sure she is older, and is coming back from childbirth but she's getting back in shape. Deena ran 1:11:48 for a half last month, Desi ran 1:11:27 a month before that, so it's not like Deena is way behind everyone else. 3 of my top 4 should be your team. I put Kara down for the win and tried to think of the scenarios where she could beat Shalane. I struggled coming up with one. Shalane still hasn't figure out the longer distances under Schumacher, but now that is Kara's coach as well. So the coaching change creates a lot of uncertainty (how will Kara react if she is getting beat in workouts?) but Kara has shown to be the best American marathon the last few year cumulatively so maybe that means something.