Wejo, why did you pick K. Goucher to win the Women's OT Marathon Trials?

Picking Goucher is a puzzler. Flanagan and Davila look solid, and I would pick an unknown for 3rd.

Link to this prediction please?

I don't have a link, it is in the newest issue of Track and Field news so I am sure it is somewhere on their website as well. Flanagan won the Miami half in 1:09:58. Goucher was second in 1:12:59. Granted Kara was tired, but Shalane blew her doors off. Not a very good performance but she has time and maybe she just had a bad day with all the traveling she has been doing (she was in Vegas last weekend).

Davila and Flanagan are guaranteed a spot on the team. Both of these are more certain than Hall is on the mens side.

Goucher, Magdalena, Hastings, and Kastor, all have a legitimate shot.

If the race is a slow start then Janet Chebron also has a chance.

NO ONE ELSE IS A FACTOR TO MAKE THE TEAM.

Zoila, Moody, Rothstein, McMahan, Grandt, Russell, are all interesting stories but have ZERO chance of finishing top 3.

I would be shocked if it wasn't Deena, Shalane, and Dez as the top 3. Frankly I don't think Goucher stands a chance.

Deena will rise to the occassion.

As said a "jillion" times before....Desi, then Flanagan, then one of maybe 7-8 runners depending on the day. Goucher for 1st? Sorry, Wejo is clearly biased. Goucher has an outside chance at 3rd but I wouldn't bet on it happening. Several others have a better chance.

Called it a month ago. Kara will either be hurt and DNS or DNF cause she's out of shape and not in the hunt.

I hear she has a new racing strategy. Desi and Shalane won't even see her go by.

Called it a YEAR ago:) dude! You been sleepin'? She will run Boston though, for the money and coverage that she will receive...but she won't win it. Wait for it, seriously.

Here is the email I sent them. I did not know Kara had been hurt.

I was the one person perhaps really impressed with her 2011 season coming back from the baby. She was top 5 at Boston without the proper buildup. Yes Desi ran her 2:22:38 but Kara was 2 minutes back after giving birth a few months before.

Kara always seems to run under 1:10 for the half. She has been the best American marathoner the last few years. So I put her down for the win. A healthy Kara, Shalane and Desi, I don't see why everyone acts like Kara loses out. Neither one of them has yet to show they have mastered the marathon (ie be in the 2:20-2:22 range on a flat course).

My email to TFN in middle of November.

1) Hall

2) Meb

3) Ritz

4) Abdi Abdirahman

5) Nick Arciniaga

One to watch: Mo Trafeh

Comments: I doubt my top 3 hold up, but they are the class of the field. As for the three that make the team I think the team will come from one of my top 4, Mo Trafeh, or a guy with track credentials like Tim Nelson or Brent Vaughn rather than a 2:11 guy like Nick Arciniaga or Jason Hartmann. The track guys need to figure out the marathon to make the team (something a lot of guys never do), a 2:11-2:13 guy needs to become a better runner to make the team.

Women

1) Kara Goucher

2) Shalane

3) Deena

4) Desi

5) Amy Hastings

Comments: I can't believe I'm leaving Desi off (most people's favorite) but like the men's side I bet my top 3 won't hold. I just wanted to put Deena on the team because I think too many people are overlooking her. She's run 2:21 or better 3 times.No one else in the field has run a non wind-aided time of under 2:25. Sure she is older, and is coming back from childbirth but she's getting back in shape. Deena ran 1:11:48 for a half last month, Desi ran 1:11:27 a month before that, so it's not like Deena is way behind everyone else. 3 of my top 4 should be your team. I put Kara down for the win and tried to think of the scenarios where she could beat Shalane. I struggled coming up with one. Shalane still hasn't figure out the longer distances under Schumacher, but now that is Kara's coach as well. So the coaching change creates a lot of uncertainty (how will Kara react if she is getting beat in workouts?) but Kara has shown to be the best American marathon the last few year cumulatively so maybe that means something.

Weldon,

Did Deena and Desiree run those half marathons on the same course? It might be worth checking out. How fast is Mark Keitany and how close was she to her PB on that course?

People saying Deena will be back in form to make the team are just guessing. There's nothing we've seen in 2011 thus far to suggest she will be and yeah, she's gutsy and great and resourceful but, you know, it's been a long career, dating back to the 1990s, and at some point, it ain't there anymore.

true or maybe a little false wrote:

Davila and Flanagan are guaranteed a spot on the team. Both of these are more certain than Hall is on the mens side.

Goucher, Magdalena, Hastings, and Kastor, all have a legitimate shot.

If the race is a slow start then Janet Chebron also has a chance.

NO ONE ELSE IS A FACTOR TO MAKE THE TEAM.

Zoila, Moody, Rothstein, McMahan, Grandt, Russell, are all interesting stories but have ZERO chance of finishing top 3.

+100 (except Kastor, too old)

desi takes it, and she'll run alone the last couple miles.

come clean wrote:

Weldon,

Did Deena and Desiree run those half marathons on the same course? It might be worth checking out. How fast is Mark Keitany and how close was she to her PB on that course?

Who is this Mark Keitany?

In any case, if a runner is winning and no one is near them, then their time relative to their PB isn't relevant. They only need to run fast enough to win.

Deena completed 2 marathons since 2008 very few times. She Should've ran a fall marathon 2011 for her 3rd marathon. Deena didn't finish in the top 3 in london 2010. So Deena will finish 18th at the trials.

Sorry Wejo, this is your site but........Colt was born almost 7 months before Boston, plenty of time, even by Kara's own admission.

Ask Paula for verification.

Better yet, ask Joan Benoit who after having arthroscopic surgery just 17 days before the 84' trials, won! Who had it harder, Joan or Kara? Easy answer, Joan:)

Seriously, Kara had plenty of time and was in great shape by January/February, her words.

i am not overlooking Deena and believe she will finish in front of Kara.

To upset you so that you'd start a thread about it. Another thread - more ad revenue for the bros.

Kara pushed her body too hard, too soon post-pregnancy, and she's paying the price for it. She could have given herself the year to slowly comeback, let her body adjust, and be in a great spot to make the Olympic team, but no-- she got greedy.