• rojo
      co-founder
      • LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/9/2011 10:41AM
      • rojo
        co-founder
      • LetsRun.com coaching guru John Kellogg seemingly comes out of hibernation every few months to make predictions in the running world. In the spring (https://www.letsrun.com/2011/bostonweather-0416.php), he said it wouldn't surprise him if someone ran faster than 2:03:59 in Boston and then Geoffrey Mutai ran 2:03:02 and after the race everyone (except us - https://www.letsrun.com/forum/f...866&page=0) was saying the unthinkable had happened.

        For the last few weeks, he got motivated to try to predict the NCAA regionals. The one thing he and we didn't do was analyze what at-large teams will get in if his NCAA regional predictions hold form. If you can figure that out, please post it below.

        We imagine even the great John Kellogg is bound to have missed someone in these predictions, so if you have corrections, please email them to us or post here.

        His predictions can be found here: https://www.letsrun.com/2011/ncaaregional-1102.php.
    • maccabee
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/9/2011 10:50AM - in reply to rojo
      • maccabee
      • How long did this take?? Good job.
    • rojo
      co-founder
    • omission
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/9/2011 11:48AM - in reply to rojo
      • omission
      • Looks like he forgot to note that W&M returns 4 All-Region runners and a fifth who just missed All-Region in 2010. They were SE Regional Champions last year and yet the team goes completely unmentioned.

        I know their results haven't been spectacular this year, but...

        Just saying.
    • dehhh
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/9/2011 12:12PM - in reply to rojo
      • dehhh
      • Just wanted to say thanks! These predictions look very good and you can tell a LOT of work went into them. Awesome!
    • rojo
      co-founder
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/9/2011 12:53PM - in reply to rojo
      • rojo
        co-founder
      • rojo wrote:
        Tons of hours. I think 40?
        I just talked to JK and he says it took close to 70 hours. 18 races = 4 hours per region.

        As for W&M, it's all based on what people have pretty much done this year. Imagine that JK's brain is a computer, it deals almost exclusively with facts.

        W&Mary's two big meets this year were 13th/45th at Paul Short (behind us at Cornell and we're not mentioned either) and 27th/45 at Wisconsin.

        I just asked JK specifically about WM and he said he thought as he was compiling that region, "Hey where is W&M?" But said after looking at the facts he couldn't find space for them. "They'll just have to step it up," he said.
    • maccabee
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/9/2011 12:57PM - in reply to rojo
      • maccabee
      • Haha, step it up or get Gibby back...
    • Harrier Rat
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/9/2011 1:12PM - in reply to rojo
      • Harrier Rat
      • Great and hard job! Obviously a Labor of Love!

        Many of the Major Meets in the East had terrible weather and footing which skewed some of his pics based on those results. If it is a good "track" at ISU the results may be much different than in those meets! How about some love for Leslie Kovach UPENN Soph?!
    • RTR Guy
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/9/2011 1:56PM - in reply to rojo
      • RTR Guy
      • I don't agree with his predictions for south region since the guy from Bama had beaten the guy from MTSU and yet they place him to be third. If so then the MTSU guy can as well beat the FSU guys. Michael Fout won't win South region!!
    • Lets be real real
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/9/2011 2:50PM - in reply to RTR Guy
      • Lets be real real
      • Can someone please explain the criteria for individual qualifying?

        Is it top 6 in each region after all the qualifying teams have been taken out?
    • Blathering Blatherskyte
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/9/2011 3:02PM - in reply to Lets be real real
      • Blathering Blatherskyte
      • Top four per region, and then there are two extra people taken from across the country.
    • 26mi235
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/9/2011 3:22PM - in reply to Blathering Blatherskyte
      • 26mi235
      • Does that mean

        4 x 9 + 2 = 38 or

        up to 4 per region, but you also have to be in the top 25, plus 2 at-large (how chosen? top finishers not otherwise taken?)
    • western erts
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/9/2011 5:18PM - in reply to 26mi235
      • western erts
      • So who are the 13 at-larges? Anybody that bright?
    • Blathering Blatherskyte
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/9/2011 5:48PM - in reply to 26mi235
      • Blathering Blatherskyte
      • It's 38 individuals total - 4 per nine regions, and the two national at-larges.

        It's so the whole meet gets to 255 runners - seven per team 1-31 (217 athletes), plus the 38 individuals.

        Don't ask me why they chose those numbers, it's all arbitrary.
    • kibitzer
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/10/2011 3:19PM - in reply to Blathering Blatherskyte
      • kibitzer
      • I understand John's picking the Cornell women over Columbia (based primarily on the Heps result)--and I hope he's right!--but Columbia seems definitely on the upswing. People (not just Cornell--BC too) should be on the lookout for them.

        Anyone have details on the course in Buffalo? From the info on weather.gov, it looks like the area will be getting a goodly amount of precipitation over the next 48 hours (not that the Ivy teams aren't used to that!).
    • -
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/10/2011 3:26PM - in reply to rojo
      • -
      • rojo wrote:
        LetsRun.com coaching guru John Kellogg seemingly comes out of hibernation every few months to make predictions in the running world. In the spring (https://www.letsrun.com/2011/bostonweather-0416.php), he said it wouldn't surprise him if someone ran faster than 2:03:59 in Boston and then Geoffrey Mutai ran 2:03:02 and after the race everyone (except us - https://www.letsrun.com/forum/f...866&page=0) was saying the unthinkable had happened.

        For the last few weeks, he got motivated to try to predict the NCAA regionals. The one thing he and we didn't do was analyze what at-large teams will get in if his NCAA regional predictions hold form. If you can figure that out, please post it below.

        We imagine even the great John Kellogg is bound to have missed someone in these predictions, so if you have corrections, please email them to us or post here.

        His predictions can be found here: https://www.letsrun.com/2011/ncaaregional-1102.php.
        Actually, Boston is a fast course IMO. I was even wondering when I got back if they had run sub 2-04 on Boston. Not surprising in the slightest for me. What WOULD be amazing is if someone ran a WR on New York. If your amazing John Kellog predicted that and it came true then he is a genius. Otherwise...He's just smart, like me.
    • rojo
      co-founder
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/11/2011 2:33AM - in reply to kibitzer
      • rojo
        co-founder
      • kibitzer wrote:
        I understand John's picking the Cornell women over Columbia (based primarily on the Heps result)--and I hope he's right!--but Columbia seems definitely on the upswing. People (not just Cornell--BC too) should be on the lookout for them.

        Anyone have details on the course in Buffalo? From the info on weather.gov, it looks like the area will be getting a goodly amount of precipitation over the next 48 hours (not that the Ivy teams aren't used to that!).
        I have been told the course is TOTALLY flat. I've also been told it doesn't hold water at all.

        10 days ago, i heard it was basically under water but over the weekend, I heard it was dry as the wind had been blowing a ton and dried it out.

        Will one day (Fri?) of precipitation make it wet? Don't know.
    • JamesLongstreet
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/11/2011 7:26AM - in reply to rojo
      • JamesLongstreet
      • No offense, but I think JK has less of a life than even me if he can dedicate 70 hours to race predictions.
    • 26mi235
      • RE: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions 11/11/2011 3:42PM - in reply to rojo
      • 26mi235
      • Bump - the day before Regionals at least one of the threads should be about the Regionals rather than about someone that will not be running in his.