LetsRun.com coaching guru John Kellogg seemingly comes out of hibernation every few months to make predictions in the running world. In the spring (http://www.letsrun.com/2011/bostonweather-0416.php), he said it wouldn't surprise him if someone ran faster than 2:03:59 in Boston and then Geoffrey Mutai ran 2:03:02 and after the race everyone (except us - http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4006866&page=0) was saying the unthinkable had happened.
For the last few weeks, he got motivated to try to predict the NCAA regionals. The one thing he and we didn't do was analyze what at-large teams will get in if his NCAA regional predictions hold form. If you can figure that out, please post it below.
We imagine even the great John Kellogg is bound to have missed someone in these predictions, so if you have corrections, please email them to us or post here.
His predictions can be found here: http://www.letsrun.com/2011/ncaaregional-1102.php.
LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions
Report Thread
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How long did this take?? Good job.
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Tons of hours. I think 40?
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Looks like he forgot to note that W&M returns 4 All-Region runners and a fifth who just missed All-Region in 2010. They were SE Regional Champions last year and yet the team goes completely unmentioned.
I know their results haven't been spectacular this year, but...
Just saying. -
Just wanted to say thanks! These predictions look very good and you can tell a LOT of work went into them. Awesome!
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rojo wrote:
Tons of hours. I think 40?
I just talked to JK and he says it took close to 70 hours. 18 races = 4 hours per region.
As for W&M, it's all based on what people have pretty much done this year. Imagine that JK's brain is a computer, it deals almost exclusively with facts.
W&Mary's two big meets this year were 13th/45th at Paul Short (behind us at Cornell and we're not mentioned either) and 27th/45 at Wisconsin.
I just asked JK specifically about WM and he said he thought as he was compiling that region, "Hey where is W&M?" But said after looking at the facts he couldn't find space for them. "They'll just have to step it up," he said. -
Haha, step it up or get Gibby back...
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Great and hard job! Obviously a Labor of Love!
Many of the Major Meets in the East had terrible weather and footing which skewed some of his pics based on those results. If it is a good "track" at ISU the results may be much different than in those meets! How about some love for Leslie Kovach UPENN Soph?! -
I don't agree with his predictions for south region since the guy from Bama had beaten the guy from MTSU and yet they place him to be third. If so then the MTSU guy can as well beat the FSU guys. Michael Fout won't win South region!!
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Can someone please explain the criteria for individual qualifying?
Is it top 6 in each region after all the qualifying teams have been taken out? -
Top four per region, and then there are two extra people taken from across the country.
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Also with NYC we forgot to promote the LetsRun.com NCAA Fan Polls. We need your votes today: http://www.letsrun.com/ncaa/ncaaconf/ncaa-voting.php
Vote for Top 10 Nationally or in each region. -
Does that mean
4 x 9 + 2 = 38 or
up to 4 per region, but you also have to be in the top 25, plus 2 at-large (how chosen? top finishers not otherwise taken?) -
So who are the 13 at-larges? Anybody that bright?
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It's 38 individuals total - 4 per nine regions, and the two national at-larges.
It's so the whole meet gets to 255 runners - seven per team 1-31 (217 athletes), plus the 38 individuals.
Don't ask me why they chose those numbers, it's all arbitrary. -
I understand John's picking the Cornell women over Columbia (based primarily on the Heps result)--and I hope he's right!--but Columbia seems definitely on the upswing. People (not just Cornell--BC too) should be on the lookout for them.
Anyone have details on the course in Buffalo? From the info on weather.gov, it looks like the area will be getting a goodly amount of precipitation over the next 48 hours (not that the Ivy teams aren't used to that!). -
rojo wrote:
LetsRun.com coaching guru John Kellogg seemingly comes out of hibernation every few months to make predictions in the running world. In the spring (http://www.letsrun.com/2011/bostonweather-0416.php), he said it wouldn't surprise him if someone ran faster than 2:03:59 in Boston and then Geoffrey Mutai ran 2:03:02 and after the race everyone (except us - http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4006866&page=0) was saying the unthinkable had happened.
For the last few weeks, he got motivated to try to predict the NCAA regionals. The one thing he and we didn't do was analyze what at-large teams will get in if his NCAA regional predictions hold form. If you can figure that out, please post it below.
We imagine even the great John Kellogg is bound to have missed someone in these predictions, so if you have corrections, please email them to us or post here.
His predictions can be found here: http://www.letsrun.com/2011/ncaaregional-1102.php.
Actually, Boston is a fast course IMO. I was even wondering when I got back if they had run sub 2-04 on Boston. Not surprising in the slightest for me. What WOULD be amazing is if someone ran a WR on New York. If your amazing John Kellog predicted that and it came true then he is a genius. Otherwise...He's just smart, like me. -
kibitzer wrote:
I understand John's picking the Cornell women over Columbia (based primarily on the Heps result)--and I hope he's right!--but Columbia seems definitely on the upswing. People (not just Cornell--BC too) should be on the lookout for them.
Anyone have details on the course in Buffalo? From the info on weather.gov, it looks like the area will be getting a goodly amount of precipitation over the next 48 hours (not that the Ivy teams aren't used to that!).
I have been told the course is TOTALLY flat. I've also been told it doesn't hold water at all.
10 days ago, i heard it was basically under water but over the weekend, I heard it was dry as the wind had been blowing a ton and dried it out.
Will one day (Fri?) of precipitation make it wet? Don't know. -
No offense, but I think JK has less of a life than even me if he can dedicate 70 hours to race predictions.
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Bump - the day before Regionals at least one of the threads should be about the Regionals rather than about someone that will not be running in his.
