2011 NCAA D-1 Regional Predictions

By John Kellogg

November 9, 2011 - (Editor's Note: LetsRun.com coaching guru John Kellogg seemingly comes out of hibernation every few months to make predictions in the running world. In the spring, he said it wouldn't surprise him if someone ran faster than 2:03:59 in Boston and then Geoffrey Mutai ran 2:03:02 and after the race everyone (except us) was saying the unthinkable had happened. For the last few weeks, he got motivated to try to predict the NCAA regionals. The one thing he and we didn't do was analyze what at-large teams will get in if his NCAA regional predictions hold form. If you can figure that out, please post it in our forum. We imagine even the great John Kellogg is bound to have missed someone in these predictions, so if you have corrections, please email them to us.

Discuss: MB: LetsRun.com's (JK's) Official 2011 NCAA XC Regional XC Predictions)

Give Us Your Own Predictions in the LetsRun.com NCAA Fan Polls

Our NCAA Regional top 25 previews are back (Editor's note - JK did them also in 2008). We've scoured the season's results - with the most weight given to recent (conference meet) performances - to take a guess at who should be the top individuals and teams in each of the nine regions. A lot of runners were considered for the top 25 and we'll undoubtedly get quite a few wrong - someone just outside our top 25 has just as good a chance as someone who just made it - and there are always a couple of huge surprises. Many of the individuals are tough to pick in regions like the South Central, where there are numerous very good runners on lesser teams who have run blazing times but haven't faced the powerhouse teams, or in the loaded West region, where the 50th runner might be as good as the 25th runner in a weak region.

Of course we have no way of knowing which of the top teams with virtually guaranteed spots at NCAAs might rest a star or two or hold back as a group. Ditto for top individuals who might hold back a bit. So this represents how we think things would turn out if everyone ran a reasonably strong race. We also can't know for sure if some subpar conference meet performances were due to deteriorating fitness or injury or if they were merely a result of temporary illness or just an off day. Where we have inside information about a recent illness, we've assumed the runner will bounce back to somewhere near previous performance levels (but we still penalized them a bit for the bad race). Runners we would expect to be among the leaders in a region but who haven't appeared in recent results or finished far back in their conference meets (possibly due to injury or possibly due to being deliberately rested) are listed after the top 25 with a question mark.

Team scores are generally based on the strengths of the top teams relative to each other (discounting many of the runners outside the top 25 or so from non-contending teams) and will probably end up being higher than we've listed them due to displacement from those individuals. In short, we have a pretty good general idea of who should be in the hunt, but we're still bound to get a bunch of it completely wrong. So basically this is all for S&Gs. Enjoy.

Northeast Region

Audubon Golf Course, Amherst, New York

With the University of Buffalo hosting, the Northeast Regional comes to the Audubon Golf Course for the first time. As far as we know, there has never been a cross-country race run on this course. It is completely flat, but it supposedly gets waterlogged easily, and possible precipitation is in the forecast in the days leading up to the race. And if it's windy in the Lake Erie area, it could be howling windy.


Iona's Leonard Korir could hold back for Nationals and still win this race. He's the indoor NCAA 5k champ, the outdoor 10k champ and has PRs of 13:26 and 27:29. No one else in the region can remotely challenge him if he's fit and ready, and if anyone has the credentials to take down the 2011 season's sensation Lawi Lalang for the ultimate crown at the Big Show, it's Korir. Iona could put up a very impressive score if everyone raced hard, but they often hold back or even rest a guy or two at this meet. Still, expect them to do enough to win unless they hold out too many guys. Nobody else has looked strong enough this season to beat the Gaels. The other auto spot is definitely up for grabs. Columbia was been ahead of last year's Northeast champs Syracuse both at Paul Short and Wisconsin, but we can't see how cross-country All-Americans like Pat Dupont and Tito Medrano can continue to run B-/C+ races like they did mid-season. Plus two of Syracuse's guys, Forrest Misenti and Joseph Whelan, are on the comeback trail from injury and are now moving in the right direction after missing the track season. Misenti was 6th in the region a year ago and is on the way back after missing a lot of time after breaking his foot at NCAAs last year and we believe he must be capable of a respectable finish this year. The Orange do seem to be turning things around just enough to make Columbia need another Paul Short type of race to nab the 2nd auto spot. We might be giving Syracuse too much credit for past accomplishments, but we think the Orange just might pull this off and nip Columbia. The Providence Friars need a distinctly better race than their last one or they're staring at 4th. There might be a few Columbia, Providence and Dartmouth guys within several spots of the top 25 and they should decide the team places. Regardless, the top four teams might all go to NCAAs as they all have points.

Leonard Korir (Iona)
David McCarthy (Providence)
Matthew Bayley (Iona)
Ethan Shaw (Dartmouth)
Mitch Goose (Iona)
Pat Dupont (Syracuse)
Kyle Merber (Columbia)
Dan Lowry (Brown)
Riley Masters (Maine)
Matt Duffy (Brown)

Alexander Soderberg (Iona)
Dominic Channon (Providence)
Tito Medrano (Syracuse)
Mike Murphy (Columbia)
Nico Composto (Columbia)
Christopher Johnson (Colgate)
Forrest Misenti (Syracuse)
Eric Jenkins (Northeastern)
Craig Murphy (Iona)
Chris Burke (Albany)

Shane Quinn (Providence)
Brett Kelly (Cornell)
Sam Alexander (Central Connecticut State)
Sean Keefe (Syracuse)
Paul Lagno (Albany)

Christopher Stogsdill (Iona)?
James Leakos (Harvard)?

Iona 1-3-5-11-19 = 39
Syracuse 6-13-17-24-29 = 89
Columbia 7-14-15-27-32 = 95
Providence 104


Providence is good - extremely good - but a little banged up, and that could prove costly. They are potentially so good (if at full strength) that they could contend for the national championship. Providence will surely rest Shelby Greany, who has recently been struggling with an injury, and perhaps another runner for this meet and hope to be firing on all cylinders by Nationals. If they run 4 of their top 5, they should win the Regional, but resting a second frontrunner will almost certainly drop them back in the standings. Syracuse seems to be a clear favorite for the other auto spot, then it's down to Ivy champs Cornell and very close runners-up Columbia vs. a Boston College squad that has improved by leaps and bounds since early October. UConn, led by 33:51 10k runner Lauren Sara, is also coming on strong but will need to have the best meet yet to be among the top 5 teams.

Emily Sisson (Providence)
Abbey D'Agostino (Dartmouth)
Laura Nagel (Providence)
Hollie Rowland (Iona)
Lauren Sara (Connecticut)
Waverly Neer (Columbia)
Hannah Davidson (Providence)
Lauren Penney (Syracuse)
Hayley Green (Stony Brook)
Jillian King (Boston College)

Sarah Pagano (Syracuse)
Katie Kellner (Cornell)
Katie Matthews (Boston U.)
Heather Stephens (Syracuse)
Charlotte Ffrench O'Carroll (Providence)
Shaylyn Tuite (Syracuse)
Genna Hartung (Cornell)
Caroline McDonough (Columbia)
Liana Epstein (Yale)
Liv Westphal (Boston College)

Elizabeth Marvin (Yale)
Sydney Fitzpatrick (New Hampshire)
Morgan Powers (Vermont)
Hope Krause (Boston College)
Bridget Dahlberg (Boston College)

Shelby Greany (Providence) 3rd in the Northeast in 2010 (top returner) Nursing an injury - probably won't run until NCAAs
Corey Conner (Maine) 4th in the Northeast in 2010?

Providence 1-3-7-15-31 = 57
Syracuse 8-11-14-16-29 = 78
Boston College 10-20-24-25-28 = 107
Cornell 125
Columbia 128

Mid-Atlantic Region

UMES Cross-Country Course, Princess Anne, Maryland


Villanova looked very good in easily capturing the Big East crown by a 43-94 margin over Georgetown, with Louisville and Syracuse right there at 96 and 97. The Wildcats produced a 16-second 1-5 spread (and it was only one more second back to their 6th man). Six in the top 14 is tough to beat, and this region might be fractionally easier than the Big East conference. 'Nova has to face G'Town again and adds Princeton and Penn State into the team battle (replacing Louisville and Syracuse), but it's Navy next on paper, and Navy doesn't seem quite as strong as even the 6th best team in the Big East. So it's possible with a banner day that the Wildcats can produce an even lower team score than they did at the conference meet, although that race was expertly executed and will be wicked tough to duplicate. Matthew Gibney led the team at conference and should be one the big favorites here. Princeton, ranked 9th in the country, had to rally past Columbia in the last mile to escape with the win at HEPS. Donn Cabral looked like a top 10 contender for NCAAs coming into the meet, but he had an off day (by his standards) and wound up having to sprint just to get 3rd, while fellow All-American Brian Leung had been suffering from an illness and slipped to 28th. If the Tigers regain the form that netted them 4th at Wisconsin, they should be the best team in the region, but we're still going to have a few reservations (at least for this meet) following the sketchy results at HEPS. Slushy footing, blinding snow and falling temperatures at the Ivy League meet notwithstanding, they'll have to bounce back and do better to beat 'Nova here and be a top 10 team at NCAAs. For now, we're picking the Wildcats for most of the top spots in this race.

Matthew Gibney (Villanova)
Donn Cabral (Princeton)
Keith Capecci (Villanova)
Mark Dennin (Georgetown)
Ryan Sheridan (Villanova)
Kyle Dawson (Penn State)
Vince McNally (Penn State)
Brian Leung (Princeton)
Samuel McEntee (Villanova)
Peter Maag (Princeton)

Evans Kosgei (Lehigh)
Matthew Kane (Villanova)
Mathew Mildenhall (Villanova)
Alex Lundy (Georgetown)
Tyler Udland (Princeton)
Andrew Springer (Georgetown)
Alfredo Santana (LaSalle)
Cody Rome (Navy)
Kevin McDonnell (St. Joseph's)
TC Lumbar (Georgetown)

Josh Olson (American)
Chris Bendtsen (Princeton)
Matt Schiffbauer (Marshall)
James Pearson (Navy)
Nick Ross (LaSalle)

Sam Pons (Princeton)?

Villanova 1-3-5-9-12 = 30
Princeton 2-8-10-15-22 = 57
Georgetown 4-14-16-19-27 = 80
Penn State 102
Navy 141


Last year's national champ Sheila Reid led last year's national champs from Villanova to a win at the Big East meet, albeit by a less-than-comfortable margin over an injury-plagued Providence squad, which likely would have won the conference title at full strength. Second-ranked 'Nova was well clear of region rivals Georgetown and West Virginia, however, and should also come out on top here, although they can't afford to sandbag too much. G'Town, West Virginia and Penn State are currently ranked 7th, 13th and 22nd, so this is an above average region in terms of competitiveness. We'll give the top three finishers at the Big East the 1-2-3 spots in our preview as well. Penn State's Caitlin Lane seems to be hitting a timely peak, storming to the individual win at Big Tens, but Kate Harrison prevalied in their matchup at the fairly recent PSU meet, winning outright to Lane's 5th place.

Sheila Reid (Villanova)
Bogdana Mimic (Villanova)
Kate Harrison (West Virginia)
Caitlin Lane (Penn State)
Alex Banfich (Princeton)
Emily Infeld (Georgetown)
Kaitlyn Gillespie (West Virgina)
Kara Millhouse (Penn State)
Sarah-Anne Brault (West Virginia)
Nicky Akande (Villanova)

Emily Jones (Georgetown)
Kirsten Kasper (Georgetown)
Emily Lipari (Villanova)
Julie Fricke (Maryland)
Katrina Coogan (Georgetown)
Emily Giannotti (Penn State)
Jess Palacio (Navy)
Callie Hogan (Villanova)
Annamarie Maag (Georgetown)
Greta Feldman (Princeton)

Ahna Lewis (West Virginia)
Hannah Neczypor (Georgetown)
Natalie Bower (Penn State)
Brooklyne Ridder (Penn State)
Alexis Mikaelian (Princeton)

Claire Richardson (Georgetown)?

Villanova 1-2-10-13-18 = 44
Georgetown 6-11-12-15-19 = 63
West Virginia 3-7-9-21-27 = 67
Penn State 4-8-16-23-24 = 75

Southeast Region

E.P. "Tom" Sawyer State Park, Louisville, Kentucky


UNCG's Paul Chelimo has run four races this season and has won them all, running away from the competition in Sam Chelanga fashion and producing times in the 23s on each occasion. A couple of the course lengths might be questionable, but extremely easy wins against solid fields at Paul Short and Panorama Farms (where he beat eventual ACC 3rd placer Mark Amirault by 42 seconds) show Chelimo is the real deal. Of course, NC State's Ryan Hill is also the real deal. He isn't undefeated for the year, but he's faced far tougher competition, placing 2nd at both Griak and at Wisconsin (easily the toughest meet of the year prior to Nationals), both times losing to Arizona's incredible Lawi Lalang, perhaps the co-favorite with Iona's Leonard Korir for the NCAA title. Hill has also run in the 23s in three races and won the ACC title (he was only 4 seconds in front of Amirault there, if that means anything other than the fact a win's a win). We've seen that Hill can rise to the occasion against the best the NCAA has to offer, even when he's not in front. How will Chelimo react if he meets a challenger of Lalang's caliber or faces a field as loaded as the Wisconsin race was? That we don't know, but we believe he must be in the top 5 cross-country runners in the land at the moment. Ryan Hill might also be in that group or awfully close to it, but since Chelimo has his undefeated streak on the line and he appears to run for the win from the gun every time, we'll pick him to win the Regional.

Hill's NC State Wolfpack seems like a marginal favorite to win the team battle, but they'll need to rely on a tight 3-4-5 pack close to the top 25. Eastern Kentucky is very good and could challenge. The Colonels held out their 2nd and 3rd runners at the Ohio Valley Conference meet, which they dominated with a score of 18 points. A lot of good individuals not on top teams figure to push the team scores up a little.

Paul Chelimo (UNC-Greensboro)
Ryan Hill (NC State)
Andrew Colley (NC State)
Soufiane Bouchikhi (Eastern Kentucky)
Mark Amirault (Virginia)
Matt Hughes (Louisville)
Jake Hurysz (North Carolina)
Luis Orta (Kentucky)
Ben Cheruiyot (Eastern Kentucky)
Deus Rwaheru (Western Kentucky)

Will Mulherin (Virginia Tech)
Ty McCormack (Clemson)
Zac Edwards (Liberty)
Adam Cunningham (North Carolina)
Gilbert Kemboi (USC Upstate)
David Mokone (Western Kentucky)
Ryan Hopkins (Davidson)
Michael Hammond (Virginia Tech)
Peter Okwera (Western Kentucky)
Andrew Brodeur (Duke)

Joey Thompson (UNC-Greensboro)
Tyler Byrne (Louisville)
Paul Katam (UNC-Greensboro)
John Raneri (North Carolina)
Patrick Campbell (NC State)

Chris Foley (Virginia)?

NC State 2-3-25-27-28 = 85
Eastern Kentucky 4-9-26-31-32 = 102
North Carolina 124


Kendra Schaaf appears to be back as one of the leaders in NCAA cross-country. The Saskatchewan native, now at North Carolina, finished 2nd at Nationals for Washington in 2009. After moving to the opposite coast, Schaaf has gone through a slight down period and worked back up to the point of winning this year's ACC title by 27 seconds (19:46 6k) over a pack of #1-ranked Florida State Seminoles to stamp herself as a possible top 5 placer at NCAAs if the upward trend continues. Another race like the ACC romp should leave Schaaf with no real challengers for the Regional win. At ACCs, Schaaf's nearest rival from the region was NC State's Andie Cozzarelli, who was 52 seconds behind. Eastern Kentucky's Lydia Kosgei got 10th at Pre-Nationals, but that kind of performance shouldn't pose a threat to Schaaf. The team scores here figure to be higher than in most regions and the race could be extremely close. NC State and Virginia tied for 3rd at ACCs, with North Carolina 5 points behind.

Kendra Schaaf (North Carolina)
Lydia Kosgei (Eastern Kentucky)
Ashley Schnell (UNC-Greensboro)
Andie Cozzarelli (NC State)
Nicole Irving (Wake Forest)
Madeline Morgan (Duke)
Joanna Thompson (NC State)
Katie Harman (James Madison)
Barbara Strehler (Virginia)
Laura Hoer (NC State)

Jemeli Sang (USC Upstate)
Elaina Balouris (William & Mary)
Brittany Copeland (East Carolina)
Marion Kandie (Western Kentucky)
Chelsea Ley (Virginia)
Joan Tangwar (USC Upstate)
Jill Prentice (Richmond)
Kathleen Stevens (Virginia)
Esther Vermeer (Duke)
Dena O'Brien (College Of Charleston)

Amanda Goetschius (Charlotte)
Katherine Walker (Virginia)
Alyssa Kulik (Clemson)
Lianne Farber (North Carolina)
Suejin Ahn (Duke)

Morgane Gay (Virginia)?

NC State 95
Virginia 98
North Carolina 105
Virginia Tech

South Region

Harry Pritchett Running Course, Tuscaloosa, Alabama


Mike Fout is probably best known as the guy who somehow shocked Chris Derrick and the highly-favored German Fernandez to grab the Foot Locker title in a year chock full of top-end, record-breaking high school talent, much like Matt Withrow is remembered most for kicking down superstars like Galen Rupp and Shadrack Kiptoo-Biwott (and future national champ Josh McDougal) at Foot Locker several years earlier. Well, Fout hasn't done anything quite as eye-popping as that Foot Locker upset, but he is nonetheless an outstanding college cross-country runner who was an All-American (28th at NCAAs) last year, has been consistently turning in noteworthy performances this season (3rd at Notre Dame, 6th at Pre-Nationals, 4th at ACCs) and has been an integral team player for Florida State. He seems like as good a pick as any to cross the line first in this race, although it obviously depends on how much effort the Seminoles are willing to expend here. Even if he doesn't win, expect the so-far reliable Fout to continue to help his squad with a high finish. The Seminoles should be able to get the low score in this meet; after them, the battle for the 2nd auto qualifier should be a repeat of the SEC championships minus Arkansas. Florida beat Georgia by a 66-68 score for the SEC runner-up spot, so we'll go with recent history and figure on a similar result here.

Michael Fout (Florida State)
David Forrester (Florida State)
Justus David (Middle Tennessee State)
Mark Parrish (Florida)
Matt Misereck (Florida)
Jimmy Clark (Florida)
Breandan O'Neill (Florida State)
Martin Kirui (Mississippi)
Matt Cleaver (Georgia)
Carison Kemei (Alabama)

Brandon Lord (Georgia)
Seth Proctor (Florida State)
Brian Detweiler (Georgia)
Nabil Hamid (Kennesaw State)
Kane Grimster (Auburn)
Joel Rop (Alabama)
Lucas Baker (Georgia)
AJ Del Valle (Florida State)
Wes Rickman (Florida State)
Brett Richardson (Georgia)

Robinson Simatei (Middle Tennessee State)
Chris Bodary (Tennessee)
Chris Berry (Chattanooga)
Nick Long (Georgia)
Josh Izewski (Florida)

Jakub Zivec (Florida State)?

Florida State 1-2-7-12-18 = 40
Florida 4-5-6-25-28 = 68
Georgia 9-11-13-17-20 = 70
Georgia Tech
Middle Tennessee State


The #1-ranked Florida State Seminoles paddled the field (except for Kendra Schaaf) at ACCs, finishing in spots 2 through 6. Amanda Winslow has led the team in all the big meets this season and was the only member of the squad to make an attempt at running with Schaaf, while the team's next 5 ran in a tight bunch at the front of the main field and 4 of those 5 pulled clear and gained on Winslow (with a gradual separation among themselves) to orchestrate the 20-point score. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt drubbed a very good Arkansas team to win the SEC meet by a score of 30-61. The Commodores are ranked 4th nationally and pulled off a remarkable 2nd-place team showing at the Wisconsin adidas Invitational in mid-October, but they still don't seem ready to throw a major scare into a focused FSU group at the moment. Similar to Wisconsin vs. Indiana on the men's side, Vanderbilt's pack will probably be a bit behind that of Florida State. This region doesn't appear to have that many stellar individuals who are not on top teams. FSU and Vanderbilt (and to a lesser extent Florida) are so good that their runners stand on paper to hog nearly all of the top 15 places.

Amanda Winslow (Florida State)
Alexa Rogers (Vanderbilt)
Hannah Brooks (Florida State)
Jessica Parry (Florida State)
Violah Lagat (Florida State)
Genevieve LaCaze (Florida)
Liz Anderson (Vanderbilt)
Cory McGee (Florida)
Kristie Krueger (Georgia)
Colleen Quigley (Florida State)

Jordan White (Vanderbilt)
Louise Hannallah (Vanderbilt)
Kayleigh Tyerman (Florida State)
Kristen Smith (Vanderbilt)
Florence N'getich (Florida)
Lauren D'Alessio (Samford)
Logan Waites (Mississippi)
Brittany Sheffey (Tennessee)
Katie Breathitt (Mississippi)
Allie Prendergast (South Florida)

Rhiannon Johns (Alabama-Birmingham)
Grace Orders (Vanderbilt)
Lucy Kapkiai (Middle Tennessee State)
Elizabeth Briasco (Auburn)
Callie Cooper (Florida)

Florida State 1-3-4-5-10 = 23
Vanderbilt 2-7-11-12-14 = 46
Florida 6-8-15-25-31 = 85
Georgia 170

South Central Region

Cottonwood Creek Golf Course, Waco, Texas


The South Central is a tough region to figure, owing to the fact that many lesser-known schools have individual stars that don't get many chances to race in big meets against the likes of Texas, Arkansas or A&M. Races like Chile Pepper and Cowboy Jamboree offer the best means of comparison, but the results are still spotty. Add to that the fact that normally two or three teams from this region are locks for NCAAs and may rest portions of their squads in this qualifying meet, allowing the fast individuals on weaker teams to place higher. But we'll try to guess the pecking order as though the top teams are going to race all their guys and race reasonably hard here. We think the big names from Texas (Craig Lutz) and Arkansas (Eric Fernandez and Duncan Phillips) might not go completely all-out, so we'll go with A&M's Henry Lelei to take the individual win to give the Aggies a champion on the day (of course, he might win it even if everyone did go all-out). We wouldn't be too surprised if Texas and Arkansas finished in a tie. Both teams have scored three times as many points (give or take 3 points) as Oklahoma State when they've raced the Cowboys, so they appear pretty evenly matched.

Henry Lelei (Texas A&M)
Craig Lutz (Texas)
Eric Fernandez (Arkansas)
Duncan Phillips (Arkansas)
Patrick Kemeli (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Ryan Dohner (Texas)
Rick Elliott (Arkansas)
Kevin Burnett (Texas A&M)
Brock Simmons (Texas)
MacLean O'Donnell (Texas A&M)

Rory Tunningley (Texas)
Matt Johnsen (Lamar)
Daniel Mutai (Louisiana-Monroe)
Dey Tuach (Arkansas)
Mark Pinales (Texas)
Patrick Rono (Arkansas)
Albert Cardenas (UT-San Antonio)
James Hodges (Texas A&M)
Wesley Ruttoh (Houston)
Felix Maritim (Arkansas-Little Rock)

Tom Wade (Lamar)
Cole Reveal (UT-San Antonio)
Matt Perri (Houston Baptist)
Collin Smith (Texas)
Cullen Doody (LSU)

Texas 2-6-9-11-15 = 43
Arkansas 3-4-7-14-16 = 44
Texas A&M 1-8-10-18-26 = 63
UT-San Antonio


SMU's Silje Fjortoft comes into the meet as a clear favorite after an undefeated regular season and a Conference USA title. Fjortoft won at Notre Dame (16:54 for 5k in mud and brutal winds) and romped to a dominating 20-second win in 19:45 (6k) at Chile Pepper before capturing the conference crown in 16:07 (5k) by 7 seconds over Pre-Nationals champ Risper Kimaiyo. She has multiple wins over both SEC champ Kristen Gillespie and Kimaiyo and clobbered pretty much all the other top runners in the region at Chile Pepper. Gillespie seems to be coming on like gangbusters, but the season's results as a whole say Fjortoft is definitely the one to beat. As with the men's race in this region, the Longhorns and Razorbacks should be within single digits of each other if they don't hold back and decide to duke it out.

Silje Fjortoft (SMU)
Kristen Gillespie (Arkansas)
Agnes Kemboi (TCU)
Marielle Hall (Texas)
Sara Sutherland (Texas)
Natosha Rogers (Texas A&M)
Becky Wade (Rice)
Mia Behm (Texas)
Kaitlin Flattmann (Arkansas)
Jessica Jackson (Arkansas)

Lauren Smith (Stephen F. Austin)
Allison Pye (Rice)
Kristine Eikrem-Engeset (SMU)
Stephanie Brown (Arkansas)
Megan Siebert (Texas)
Jillian Rosen (Arkansas)
Katherine Devlin (Texas A&M)
Laleh Mojtabaeezamani (Texas)
Hillary Montgomery (Texas A&M)
Mary Alenbratt (SMU)

Erin Hegarty (Baylor)
Monika Korra (SMU)
Ingrid Mollenkompf (North Texas)
Kristine Burciaga (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Judith Chumba (UT-Pan American)

Texas 4-5-8-15-18 = 50
Arkansas 2-9-10-14-16 = 51
SMU 1-13-20-22-37 = 93

Midwest Region

Anderson Field, DeKalb, Illinois


Oklahoma State won the national title the past two years and they haven't really done anything wrong this year, yet they find themselves ranked "only" 2nd in the country behind the Wisconsin Badgers, who have been as thoroughly dominant (specifically in their conference meet) as every team wishes they could be. The Cowboys have been without the services of Girma Mecheso, who was their top finisher (7th) at NCAAs last year and they have still been a quasi-dominant team. They didn't make a mockery of the competition at Big 12s, but they put them away convincingly enough, and this included 5th-ranked Oklahoma, 11th-ranked Texas and 24th-ranked Texas A&M. In short, the Cowboys are extremely good and deserving of a top-2 ranking at the moment; they just aren't as awesome as they were a year ago, and a slip-up could allow a very strong Oklahoma squad to get by them. German Fernandez and Colby Lowe went 1-2 in a near-tie at the Big 12, so those two look as strong and as sharp as ever. Hassan Mead was the only runner to infiltrate the Wisconsin top five's stranglehold on the Big Ten field and might be able to get a win here, while his Minnesota teammates should be a solid 3rd in the standings. Tulsa seems to have a nice pack, but they'll be hard-pressed to place anyone among the top 5 runners from either OSU or OU unless those teams sandbag a bit.

German Fernandez (Oklahoma State)
Colby Lowe (Oklahoma State)
Hassan Mead (Minnesota)
Shadrack Kipchirchir (Oklahoma State)
Bill Kogel (Oklahoma)
Jeremy Sudbury (Oklahoma)
Tom Farrell (Oklahoma State)
Kevin Schwab (Oklahoma)
George Alex (Oklahoma)
Rico Loy (Iowa State)

Eric Harasyn (Oklahoma)
Cosmas Ayabei (Missouri-Kansas City)
Matthew Graham (DePaul)
Joseph Manilafasha (Oklahoma State)
Pieter Gagnon (Minnesota)
Andrew Larsen (Minnesota)
Jonathan Stublaski (Oklahoma State)
Jeff Thode (Iowa)
Martin Coolidge (Iowa State)
Jordan Hebert (Illinois)

Carl Stones (Tulsa)
Andy Heyes (Tulsa)
Marcus Paulson (Minnesota)
Aaron Sherf (Oklahoma)
Gerraint Davies (Tulsa)

Girma Mecheso (Oklahoma State)?

Oklahoma State 1-2-4-7-14 = 28
Oklahoma 5-6-8-9-11 = 39
Minnesota 3-15-16-23-34 = 91
Tulsa 21-22-25-27-30 = 125
Iowa State


Iowa State didn't have much trouble in winning the Big 12 title over Texas and region rival Oklahoma State and ought to finish with the meet's low score here as well. The 10th-ranked Cyclones placed 8th at NCAAs last year, but that was due in large part to an outstanding 13th-place individual finish from one Aliphine Tuliamuk, who has since transferred to Wichita State and will be lining up next to her former teammates in a cross-country race for the first time in nearly a year. This season, Tuliamuk has placed 2nd at Dellinger, 2nd at Chile Pepper and dominated the Missouri Valley Conference. Iowa State's Meaghan Nelson was a spectacular 9th at the huge Wisconsin meet before nabbing the runner-up spot at the Big 12, but Tuliamuk beat Big 12 champ Caroline Jepleting easily at Chile Pepper, so overall seasonal results (and four prior All-American awards) lead us to pick Tuliamuk for the win here. Nelson and Co. should come away with the team trophy, though.

Aliphine Tuliamuk (Wichita State)
Meaghan Nelson (Iowa State)
Natalja Piliusina (Oklahoma State)
Jessica Engel (Oklahoma)
Dani Stack (Iowa State)
Stephanie Price (Minnesota)
Audrey Huth (Northwestern)
Paula Whiting (Tulsa)
Rebeka Stowe (Kansas)
Martina Tresch (Kansas State)

McKenzie Melander (Iowa)
Betsy Saina (Iowa State)
Bailey Belvis (Missouri)
Monika Juodeskaite (Oklahoma State)
Molly Kayfes (Minnesota)
Besty Flood (Iowa)
Kara Windisch (Kansas)
Kaitie Vanatta (Missouri)
Kristen Radcliff (Oral Roberts)
Hilary Orf (St. Louis)

Kate Kujawa (Oklahoma State)
Morgan Casey (Iowa State)
Katie White (Nebraska)
Liz Reida (Missouri)
Ashley Scott (Tulsa)

Iowa State 2-5-12-22-28 = 69
Oklahoma State 3-14-21-26-29 = 93
Minnesota 137
Iowa 147

Great Lakes Region

Ottawa Park Golf Course, Toledo, Ohio


The Great Lakes Regional gives us round two of #1-ranked Wisconsin vs. Big Ten conference rivals Indiana, this time over 10k. The Big Ten meet saw Wisconsin produce a stunning 17-point performance with an 18-second gap from 1st to 5th man. Indiana had a pretty decent 38-second 1-5 spread, but the Hoosiers, ranked a lofty 7th themselves, averaged a full 30 seconds per man slower than the Badgers. It stands to reason that neither team would desire an all-out 10k so close to the biggest meet of all, so don't be surprised if they ease off the throttle just a bit. Wisconsin could probably score under 20 points again (we have them at 19), but they might decide to let a few others crash the party. If so, Cincinnati's Eric Finan stands a good chance of crossing the line first. Finan's only loss of the year was a 3rd place at Pre-Nationals (won by reigning NCAA 10k champ Leonard Korir) and he had a fairly large winning margin at the Big East meet, so he's quite capable of mixing it up with the Badgers even if they run all-out. The top teams may coast a little, but we've made our guesses with the assumption that everyone runs a fairly honest race; if so, we say Wisconsin can take five of the top six spots and Indiana's pack should be a few spots in arrears, just as before.

Mohammed Ahmed (Wisconsin)
Eric Finan (Cincinnati)
Maverick Darling (Wisconsin)
Elliot Krause (Wisconsin)
Reed Connor (Wisconsin)
Ryan Collins (Wisconsin)
Andrew Poore (Indiana)
Callum Hawkins (Butler)
Craig Forys (Michigan)
Bobby April (Michigan)

Andrew Bayer (Indiana)
Zachary Mayhew (Indiana)
Adrien Dannemiller (Indiana)
Stephen Schulz (Purdue)
DeSean Turner (Indiana)
Donald Roys (Ohio State)
Tecumseh Adams (Central Michigan)
Taylor Williams (Ohio State)
Brendon Blacklaws (Michigan)
Jeremy Rae (Notre Dame)

Ross Clarke (Butler)
David Madrigal (Michigan State)
Julian Meyer (Ohio State)
Ben Hubers (Indiana)
Terefe Ejigu (Eastern Michigan)

Wisconsin 1-3-4-5-6 = 19
Indiana 7-11-12-13-15 = 58
Michigan 112
Ohio State 131
Notre Dame
Eastern Michigan


At the Big Ten meet, Michigan State was 8 points behind Michigan through 4 runners and wound up with a slower top-5 average by over 3 seconds, but the Spartans squeaked past their in-state rivals by putting their 5-6-7 in front of Michigan's 5th. MSU won the Great Lakes Regional over Michigan last year and should have a tough battle to repeat, judging by those conference results. Wisconsin's Caitlin Comfort beat all the region's top runners to the line at Big Tens (but was 2nd overall to a stellar effort by Caitlin Lane of Penn State). Notre Dame was only 6th in the extraordinarily deep Big East and should find an easier time of things in this race, potentially scoring 50 or so points lower than at conference.

Caitlin Comfort (Wisconsin)
Danielle Tauro (Michigan)
Rebecca Addison (Michigan)
Julia Otwell (Michigan State)
Sara Kroll (Michigan State)
Carlie Green (Michigan State)
Jessica Rydberg (Notre Dame)
Juli Accurso (Ohio U.)
Jillian Smith (Michigan)
Taylor Pogue (Michigan)

Emma Kertesz (Toledo)
Kelly Curran (Notre Dame)
Ari Fisher (Toledo)
Alexa Aragon (Notre Dame)
Rebekah Smeltzer (Michigan State)
Ashley Beutler (Wisconsin)
Rachel McFarlane (Michigan State)
Kyla Chapman (Wisconsin)
Tori Brink (Ohio State)
Gabby Gonzales (Notre Dame)

Gabi Anzalone (Wisconsin)
Elissa Mason (Dayton)
Leah O'Connor (Michigan State)
Katie Haines (Michigan State)
Samantha Ginther (Indiana)

Michigan State 4-5-6-15-17 = 47
Michigan 2-3-9-10-26 = 50
Notre Dame 7-12-14-20-27 = 80
Wisconsin 1-16-18-21-30 = 86

Mountain Region

East Bay Golf Course, Provo, Utah

With BYU hosting the meet at an elevation of over 4,500 feet, some of the teams will be coming slightly down in altitude while others will be heading slightly up (as is normally the case for this region). Don't expect blazing times (unless the course turns out short either by oversight or from being deliberately "altitude adjusted"). The men's winning time was 30:29 on this course in 2005, when only 7 runners broke 31:00.


Southern Utah's Cam Levins is undefeated, with a 22:59 time at UC-Riverside (winning by over a minute in a race that included Chad Hall) and big wins at Dellinger (in 23:11, besting all of Wisconsin's contingent and Hall), Chile Pepper (over Colby Lowe) and the Summit League Championships. It's tough to pick against a 13:26 guy (Big Sky champ Diego Estrada) or an NCAA indoor mile champion and 3:36 1,500 man (Miles Batty), but Levins is on fire. He also has not-too-shabby track credentials of 3:59 mile and 13:40 5,000. Unless he takes a safety to get to NCAAs, look for him to keep it going. BYU (great all year) and Colorado (coming on as usual in the late season to get the huge surprise win at PAC-12s) should grab the team auto spots with no trouble. Expect both teams to run only as hard as they need to run in the moderate-altitude 10k, leaving Estrada (whose team needs low sticks) as the most serious challenger to Levins for the individual win.

Cameron Levins (Southern Utah)
Diego Estrada (Northern Arizona)
Miles Batty (BYU)
Richard Medina (Colorado)
Andrew Wacker (Colorado)
Jared Ward (BYU)
Rex Shields (BYU)
Joe Bosshard (Colorado)
Ross Millington (New Mexico)
Nicholas Kipruto (New Mexico)

Justice Chirchir (UTEP)
Alden Bahr (BYU)
Jeremy Drenckhahn (Air Force)
Jordan Chipangama (Northern Arizona)
Christian Thompson (Colorado)
Tylor Thatcher (BYU)
Ammar Moussa (Colorado)
Elkana Rotich (UTEP)
Spencer Lynass (Colorado State)
Brett Hales (Weber State)

Sean Stam (New Mexico)
Brian McKenna (Utah State)
Jim Walmsley (Air Force)
Nate Jewkes (Southern Utah)
Lynn Reynolds (Montana)

BYU 3-6-7-11-15 = 42
Colorado 4-5-8-15-17 = 49
Northern Arizona 118
Utah State
Weber State


Colorado, laying relatively low during the invitational portion of the season, materialized out of some unseen dimension to kick off the PAC-12 era with a victory against outrageously tough competition. This win was unexpected even by Colorado's usual upend-the-form-chart standards. The Lady Buffs did add World Championships steepler Emma Coburn for the conference meet, but they amazingly would have won the title without Coburn. While they may not have targets on their backs yet, they won't have the element of surprise anymore. They leapfrogged from 16th to 3rd in the national poll by virtue of the conference win and should top the field in Provo, with one of their stars probably contending for the individual win.

Shalaya Kipp (Colorado)
Emma Coburn (Colorado)
Morgan Haws (BYU)
Caroline Jepleting (Texas Tech)
Risper Kimaiyo (UTEP)
Rose Tanui (Texas Tech)
Ruth Senior (New Mexico)
Ellie Keyser (Colorado State)
Amber Henry (Weber State)
Laura Darco (Colorado)

Amanda Mergaert (Utah)
Katy Andrews (BYU)
Courtney Schultz (New Mexico State)
Natalie Gray (New Mexico)
Nicole Peters (Colorado State)
Purity Biwott (Texas Tech)
Bradi Hutchinson (Idaho State)
Rachel Baptista (Colorado)
Kirsty Milner (New Mexico)
Kortnee Burton (Northern Arizona)

Heather Haug (Montana State)
Diana Medina (Southern Utah)
Sarah Waldron (New Mexico)
Sarah Callister (Weber State)
Katie Cumming (Colorado)

Lacey Oeding (New Mexico)?

Colorado 1-2-10-18-25 = 56
New Mexico 7-14-19-23-31 = 94
Texas Tech 114
BYU 140
Colorado State 175

West Region

Stanford Golf Course, Palo Alto, California

Given good weather, a race run on this course exemplifies the cliché "a track meet on grass." Never mind how accurately it's supposedly measured; the layout itself is fast. Real fast. Speaking of accuracy, when Stanford hosted the West Regional in 2008, Oregon's Galen Rupp won in 27:42 to lead 6 more runners under 29:00 and another 25 under 30:00. Guesses as to how short it was were all over the map. Nonetheless, everyone runs the same course in cross-country, and runners were literally producing times pretty close to those they would run for 10k on a track.


It isn't just the course that's fast; the competition in this region is as tough as it gets. This year should be no different. Arizona's Lawi Lalang has been unchallenged this season, running away from the fields at the huge invitationals, and heads into the final meets as many people's pick to win the NCAA title. Behind him in the region are numerous All-Americans and other many-time NCAA qualifiers. This is normally the deepest region in terms of NCAA-bound teams, so individual qualifiers may come from farther back in the standings than they do in other regions. Note: Runners must be All-Region (top 25) to make NCAAs. It isn't normal for a runner to finish outside the top 25 and be among the top four individuals not on advancing teams, but if that scenario does arise, it's most likely to happen in this region. In 2008, Scott Smith of UCSB and Victor Zazueta of Arizona finished 27th and 34th in the West as the 3rd and 4th individuals not on qualifying teams (7 teams made it from the region) and neither advanced to NCAAs! It can be a brutal region no doubt. We won't even try to guess yet how many teams from the West will make it to Terre Haute this year.

Lawi Lalang (Arizona)
Chris Derrick (Stanford)
Jake Riley (Stanford)
Luke Puskedra (Oregon)
Alfred Kipchumba (Portland)
Trevor Dunbar (Portland)
Chad Hall (UC-Riverside)
Parker Stinson (Oregon)
Kent Morikawa (UCLA)
Brendan Gregg (Stanford)

Collin Jarvis (California)
Daniel Gonia (Cal Poly)
Erik Olson (Stanford)
Heath Reedy (Long Beach State)
Andrew Kimpel (Washington State)
Joash Osoro (Portland)
Joey Bywater (Washington)
Jonathan Lafler (Washington State)
David Cardona (Cal Poly)
Nick Happe (Arizona State)

Chris Walden (California)
Lars Erik Malde (Portland)
Jeramy Elkaim (Oregon)
Jonathan Peterson (UC-Davis)
Nohe Lema (UCLA)

Stanford 2-3-10-13-26 = 54
Portland 5-6-16-22-27 = 76
Oregon 105
UCLA 142
Cal Poly
Washington State


Katie Flood won the inaugural PAC-12 meet in an upset of sorts over Kathy Kroeger and Jordan Hasay. Will that trend continue? It's hard to pick against the more credentialed Hasay, so we'll guess the Oregon superstar turns the tables on both of them here. The team battle - should the top teams decide to go for it and not hold back for the big one - ought to be a nail biter. Times from the women's West Regional in 2008 were a lot more reasonable than those in the insanely-fast men's race (suggesting the 6k was more accurately measured), but they were quick in any event (33 at sub-21:00). The surface is fast no matter the distance.

Jordan Hasay (Oregon)
Katie Flood (Washington)
Tara Erdmann (Loyola-Marymount)
Kathy Kroeger (Stanford)
Jennifer Bergman (Arizona)
Stephanie Marcy (Stanford)
Shelby Houlihan (Arizona State)
Jessica Tonn (Stanford)
Laura Suur (San Francisco)
Elvin Kibet (Arizona)

Christine Babcock (Washington)
Hannah Kiser (Idaho)
Claire Michel (Oregon)
Rosa Del Toro (Long Beach State)
Megan Goethals (Washington)
Sarah Sumpter (UC-Davis)
Bronwyn Crossman (Oregon)
Elizabeth Apgar (Arizona)
Chelsea Reilly (California)
Eleanor Fulton (Washington)

Melanie Thompson (Oregon)
Justine Johnson (Washington)
Aisling Cuffe (Stanford)
Lindsay Flanagan (Washington)
Sophie Curl (San Francisco)

Deborah Maier (California)?

Washington 2-11-15-20-22 = 70
Stanford 4-6-8-23-30 = 71
Oregon 1-13-17-21-31 = 83
Arizona 105
San Francisco 157

Give Us Your Own Predictions in the LetsRun.com NCAA Fan Polls


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